'Looking at the schedule, I don't see a single surefire victory:' A sharp handicapper gives three CFB win totals to bet now

Yahoo

a day ago

The calendar has flipped to August, which means college football season is fast approaching. While there is still plenty of time to get your futures wagers in, you're probably going to get a worse number on some season win totals than you would have a few weeks (or months) ago. Many respected bettors have bet their opinions already and moved the market.
But fear not, we were able to talk to Paul Stone on the phone recently — a terrific college football handicapper who lives in Texas — to get his opinion on a few over/unders he likes.
Here are three of his favorite college football season win-total wagers (as always, shop around for the best price as numbers vary at different books):
West Virginia under 5.5 wins (-150 at BetMGM)
Stone: "Rich Rodriguez returns to Morgantown and a lot of fanfare surrounding his hire. I would say the second time around in coaching is usually not as fruitful as the first. He loses two of his top players through the portal: RB C.J. Donaldson and LB Josiah Trotter, last year's Big 12 defensive freshman of the year. The Mountaineers will be favored in their opener vs. FCS Robert Morris, but they could be an underdog in their remaining 11 games.
"West Virginia also doesn't draw Oklahoma State, Arizona or Houston in their Big 12 schedule, and they play some of that league's toughest teams there in Morgantown. It's typical in this age of NIL, the transfer portal and first-year head coach, but West Virginia has over 50 new players on its roster. The Mountaineers gave up 33.4 PPG last year and with Trotter exiting the program, I believe that number might be even higher in 2025. I see West Virginia winning five or fewer games this season."
Oklahoma State under 5.5 (-175)
Stone: "I heard Mike Gundy at Big 12 Media Days, and he indicated the Cowboys have 65 new players, 35 of whom he has never seen practice — they came in through the late portal. They don't have a single QB on the roster who has taken a snap before at OK State. All of this is just to point out that Gundy and OK State could be a case study in how quickly things can change in the age of NIL and the transfer portal.
"Just two seasons ago, this program won 10 games in 2023 and played Texas for the Big 12 title. The Cowboys slipped to three wins last season and I'm not sure they'll be any better this year. In fact, I would contend the Cowboys are one of the five worst Power Four teams in all of college football. Only Purdue and Stanford clearly have lower power ratings than OK State entering the season. They've got relative gimmes in non-conference play vs. FCS Tennessee-Martin and Tulsa, but might not be favored in any other of their remaining 10 games. They don't draw West Virginia in conference, and play Arizona and UCF on the road. It's very difficult for me to see six wins for this team."
Stanford under 3.5 (-175)
Stone: "Stanford has gone 3-9 for four straight seasons and unless general manager Andrew Luck has some eligibility remaining, I believe the Cardinal will win three games or fewer again this season. Stanford was a big loser in the transfer portal this offseason. David Bailey, one of the nation's top defensive ends transferred to Texas Tech, while wide receiver Emmett Mosley V, who flourished late last season, moved on to Texas. They've also had some instability within the program as former head coach Troy Taylor was fired in March among allegations of mistreating female employees at the school. Frank Reich will serve as the school's interim coach.
"Looking at the schedule, I don't see a single surefire victory. The Cardinal are currently 1- or 1.5-point favorites at most books in their opener at Hawaii, but that line is down to pick'em at Westgate, and I fully expect Hawaii to be a short favorite at kickoff. [Eds. note: Hawaii is currently a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM.] The only other two games in which they could be favored this season are home games vs. San Jose State and Cal, but those are currently toss-ups, according to my power ratings. It's very difficult for me to see this team winning four or more games."