A Little Bad News for Rivian and Lucid

Globe and Mail

10 hours ago

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) and Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID) entered 2025 in different gears. Rivian was entering a year with no major vehicle launch, stagnating deliveries, and a lack of any visible catalysts, while Lucid has strung together six consecutive quarters of record deliveries and is ramping the production of its new Gravity SUV. One thing they both have in common is a growing, albeit more slowly than hoped, electric vehicle (EV) market. Here's the bad news: Some recent data says that the EV market sentiment looks to be souring.
Survey says
Tesla changed the game when it made EVs "cool" for the first time. Since then, the hype surrounding EVs as the future of transportation has swept the globe, in some countries (like China) faster than in others. But according to a recent survey, that hype could be in decline in the U.S.
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Interest in EVs spiraled to its lowest level since 2019, according to a consumer survey commissioned by AAA. Only 16% of respondents reported being "likely" or "very likely" to purchase an EV as their next vehicle, signaling consumer caution. The percentage of respondents who indicated they would be "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to purchase an EV as their next vehicle jumped from 51% to 63%, the highest mark since 2022. The percentage who believe that most cars will be electric within the next decade fell from 40% in 2022 to 23% this year.
Not only is interest in EVs down, there's also the lingering pessimism surrounding battery repair costs, total costs, and charging infrastructure -- a story as old as EVs themselves. More specifically, 62% of respondents noted high battery repair costs as a main reason for avoiding going electric, while purchase price was cited by 59% of respondents.
The hesitation when it comes to purchase price is understandable. The average transaction price for a new EV in March was $59,205, far higher than the overall average transaction price of $47,462, according to data from Cox Automotive. As far as consumer concerns go, 56% of respondents had the fear of running out of charge while driving, and 55% noted a lack of convenient public charging stations.
Pulling support
The waning consumer sentiment goes hand in hand with the Trump administration's effort to pull support from the EV industry. House Republicans passed a budget bill on May 22 that will reduce federal incentives for battery manufacturing, as well as other clean energy projects. If the Senate approves it, it would cut the section of the bill that provides the $7,500 EV tax credit.
The administration took it a step further, as the bill also institutes a new tax of $250 for EV owners and $100 for hybrid owners. The tax contributes to the Highway Trust Fund to support infrastructure.
What it all means
Investors would be wise to temper growth expectations for the EV industry this year, especially with tariff uncertainty hanging over the automotive industry. That's especially true considering that first-quarter data could give a different impression. EV registrations grew 16%, according to S&P Global Mobility, and market share rose from 6.9% to 7.7%, year over year. There was a demand pull-ahead effect due to people predicting that the tax credit would soon disappear.
Rivian, which is currently waiting anxiously for the R2 launch, lacks momentum in 2025 and could use broader industry strength to boost its stock price. Investors who believe in Rivian long-term should keep their eyes open for a buying opportunity this year.
For Lucid investors, while this decline in consumer sentiment isn't ideal, the company has plenty of self-driven momentum thanks to quarters of record deliveries. The company is currently ramping up production and deliveries of the new Gravity SUV EV, which will continue driving total deliveries higher throughout the year.
For these two young automakers, the broader industry's health is important. The simple truth is that people aren't taking to EVs in the U.S. as quickly as investors had hoped.
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Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.