India's coal demand to rise 60% by 2050; oil, petrochemical imports to remain high: S&P
New Delhi: India's coal demand is projected to rise by around 60 per cent by 2050, and the country will continue to rely on imported oil, gas, and coal despite expanding domestic production, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
India's growing energy requirements come at a time when global oil markets are facing weak fundamentals in 2025 due to sluggish demand and rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.
Pulkit Agarwal, Head of India Content (Cross Commodities), S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'Global oil prices have lost some shine in 2025 year-to-date on the back of a challenging demand environment exacerbated by supply growth from OPEC+ as well as beyond. On the demand side, while the absence of Chinese demand growth continues to be felt, as the market continues to look for a demand growth leader, trade and tariff issues are resulting in uncertainties regarding pace of economic and hence oil demand growth.'
'For India, oil demand continues to grow helped by favourable demographics and economic growth. India is quickly assuming a prominent place in the global oil demand growth order, while the base is still small to have an oversized implication on the global markets,' he added.
Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director, Energy Transition & Cleantech Consulting, S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'India is riding the global energy transition wave, while navigating the energy demand of economic ascent, an urban surge and contending with high pollution levels.'
'Facing the energy trilemma requires the India energy system to solve for energy accessibility, affordability, and security while transitioning. Energy security considerations run through oil, gas, and coal with India importing ~87% of oil, ~50% of gas, and ~26% of coal in 2024,' she said.
As per S&P Global's base case, fossil fuels remain foundational, with only a slight decline by 2050. In an accelerated greening scenario, the share of fossil fuels could decline to 33 per cent by 2050. In a more challenged global scenario called Discord, fossil fuels would remain at 77 per cent of the primary energy mix by 2050, with coal supplying just over 50 per cent.
Pritish Raj, Managing Editor for Asia Thermal Coal, S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'India's coal demand is expected to rise around 60% by 2050, and most of the incremental demand will be met by domestic supply.'
'Despite being one of the world's largest producers of coal, India has gaps in the quality and availability of domestic coal. As per S&P Commodity Insights' outlook, India's dependence on imported coal is expected to continue, with mid-term 2030 outlook projections at about 250 million tons by 2030, and
thermal coal imports
in the range of 150-180 million mt,' he added.
'While the share of coal in the power mix may go down from current over 70% to 66% by 2030, in terms of generation share it'll rise. We estimate that number to be around 1600 TWh by 2030 that's going to come from coal,' he said. The share of solar-based power in India's generation mix is expected to rise from 8.54 per cent in 2024 to 14.58 per cent by 2030.
Stuti Chawla, Associate Director, India and Middle East Chemicals Pricing, S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'India's petrochemical demand is likely to outpace GDP growth in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), despite concerns over a drop in urban demand and inventory build-up seen in the domestic markets amid tariff concerns.'
'Chemical producers in India are looking at diversifying into specialty chemicals as well as upstream and downstream integration to compete with the onslaught of cheaper imports and maintain a stronghold in the domestic market,' she added
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