Chances increase for a tropical storm system over northern Florida
Even now, it's already having an influence on Florida weather with isolated torrential rain.
"This system is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity," the hurricane center said the afternoon of July 15. However, "little development is expected through tonight while the center is over land."
As a high-pressure system over the northeastern Gulf drifts slowly westward on July 15, it will provide an opening for the system that's over Florida to "mosey westward," said the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.
Once the disturbance moves off Florida's west coast and along the northern Gulf coast, it may encounter more favorable conditions and could strengthen into a potential tropical cyclone later in the week, said Jeffrey Lewitski, one of the center's lead forecasters in a discussion the evening of July 14.
The center has upped the chances of the system becoming a tropical depression or storm to 40% by Wednesday and 40% through Sunday.
Regardless of its chances of becoming the season's fourth named tropical storm, the low-pressure area is forecast to create unsettled weather over Florida as it moves westward to northwestward over the Gulf.
"Some areas will receive multiple rounds of rain for the next couple of days which can lead to localized flooding," said the weather service office in the Ruskin/Tampa Bay. The evening of July 14, a deluge was reported in at least two locations in the Plant City area east of Tampa, the weather service said.
A gauge at the Plant City Police Department recorded 10.62 inches, and a gauge four miles east-southeast of the city reported 9.38 inches of rain.
Up to another inch of rain was expected and the weather service advised people to monitor weather alerts and not to drive into a flooded roadway, especially at night, when water over a road can be notoriously hard to see and can carry a vehicle away when it's moving quickly.
Florida to see rain regardless of storm development
The bulk of the rain is forecast to fall across Central Florida, north and west of Lake Okeechobee, the weather service said.
The disturbance also will increase winds over the Gulf and increase the chances of rough surf and dangerous rip currents for the latter part of the week and possibly the weekend, the hurricane center said.
What would the potential system be named?
If a tropical storm develops, it would be the fourth of the 2025 hurricane season, which started June 1, and would be named Dexter.
Tropical Storm Chantal: Multiple fatalities reported in North Carolina flooding during Chantal
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: National Hurricane Center watches system over northern Florida
Solve the daily Crossword
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNN
10 minutes ago
- CNN
Democratic Senator: Cost of expanding forecasting technology to detect extreme weather events is ‘worth it'
Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington told CNN's Pamela Brown that the US needs to upgrade its weather forecasting system, pointing to the tragedy in Texas earlier this month. "It's a very dangerous environment, so Americans should have the best weather system," Cantwell said.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Advisory in effect as a heat dome is expected to raise temps to triple digits across South, Midwest
By midweek, temperatures are expected to hit or exceed 100 degrees in most of the South, the Midwest and around the Great Lakes. A 'heat dome' is expected to increase temperatures and humidity levels throughout the South and parts of the Midwest this week and will eventually move over the Northeast by the weekend. A heat dome is a high-pressure bubble in the upper levels of the atmosphere that traps hot air and sun radiation underneath it. The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit focused on climate change advocacy and education, compares heat domes to putting a lid on a hot pot; the lid keeps the hot air from leaving the pot and keeps the contents of the pot hot for a longer time. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued heat warnings and advisories for millions of residents throughout the South and Midwest early Monday morning. An 'Extreme Heat Watch' advisory alert, which warns 'dangerous heat is possible,' was issued for Illinois, Missouri and Iowa. An 'Extreme Heat Warning' alert, which warns 'dangerous heat is happening or about to happen,' was sent to Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi and Kansas residents. Heat advisories were also issued for the entire state of Florida, as the state's heat index is expected to hit 110 to 115 degrees under the heat dome. (The NWS 'heat index' is a calculator that estimates what outdoor temperatures feel like to the human body.) The weather service's Heat Risk map shows that most of the state faces a major heat risk, with extreme conditions throughout the southwestern coast. Hotter and more humid temperatures are expected to spread across the Midwest starting on Tuesday, according to AccuWeather. By midweek, temperatures will hit or exceed 100 degrees in most of the South, Midwest and Great Lakes region. The high temperatures will be paired with 'oppressively muggy air,' AccuWeather reported, especially in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Areas throughout Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana will experience peak temperatures either close to 100 degrees or above, Jonathan Erdman, the senior meteorologist at predicts, potentially bringing triple-digit temperatures to Dallas for the first time in 2025. Several of the cities that will be affected by the heat dome, such as Kansas City, Mo., have not hit triple-digit temperatures in two years, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill reported, and may experience record-high temperatures. Merrill also expects that many residents of these cities 'won't get relief' from nighttime temperatures, which are expected to 'range from the mid-70s to the low 80s.' The heat and humidity will move into the Northeast by Friday, the Weather Channel reported, noting that temperatures will likely become cooler than normal before rising under the heat dome. Temperatures in Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia could reach almost 100 degrees later this week, the Weather Channel said. Northeast, Midwest also warned about severe thunderstorms The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a warning over the weekend for excessive rainfall in areas across the Ohio Valley on Monday. 'Flash flooding is anticipated tonight over Northeast MO and Central IL as storms containing 3-4'/hour rainfall rates develop this evening,' the WPC warned on social media on Sunday, issuing a 'Moderate Risk' warning. The Moderate Risk level means numerous flash floods are likely to occur. The NWS forecast discussion from Monday morning warned that upcoming thunderstorms posed flash flood threats in the Southwest, Northwest, Midwest, Mid-South and Southeast. While it's rare to see precipitation happen within a heat dome, severe thunderstorms are likely to form around its edges, often called the 'ring of fire.' "In the world of meteorology, the ring of fire deals with thunderstorms along the northern edges of strong upper-levels high,' AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. 'Oftentimes, this setup produces severe thunderstorms along the northern edges of the heat.' How to stay safe in extreme heat Extreme heat is the deadliest type of weather in the U.S., even more so than tornadoes, flooding or hurricanes, according to research by the NWS. Prolonged extreme heat, as is expected in the heat dome this week, is especially dangerous for people who do not have access to air-conditioning or who spend a lot of time outdoors. If you live in a place that will be impacted by the heat dome, here's what to do to help protect yourself: Stay indoors and cool for as long as you can. Here is a list of public places you can go to for free air-conditioning. Stay hydrated. It's helpful to add electrolytes to your water to further protect yourself from dehydration. If you need to go outside, protect your skin by wearing sunscreen with an SPF of 30 or higher, sun-protective clothing and UV-blocking sunglasses. Understand and look out for symptoms of heat-related illness. These include heavy sweating, fatigue, dizziness, muscle cramps, nausea and headaches. If you are experiencing these symptoms, move to a cool area to rest and hydrate. Solve the daily Crossword
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Storm tracker: Disturbance east of Caribbean expected to weaken, forecasters say
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms east of the Caribbean, with odds of it forming into a tropical cyclone slightly decreasing on Monday, July 21. As of the center's July 21 midday report, there are showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure hundreds of miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, with a 10% chance it will form into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The disturbance was set to move west at about 15 miles per hour, forecasters said, but conditions are expected to prevent further formation in the coming days. Chances of it strengthening into a cyclone within the next week are similarly low, forecasters say, also at about 10%. "Although the wave is still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next few days," the July 21 update said. The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. Atlantic hurricane season storm tracker How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Kathryn Palmer is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her atkapalmer@ and on X @KathrynPlmr.
