Dorcha Lee: Israel lets Trump take charge in Gaza talks
But this gesture from Netanyahu is all about Trump's declaration, last week, that he wants agreement this week on a 60 day ceasefire in Gaza.
It means that, this time, Netanyahu may not jeopardise the ceasefire agreement by introducing last minute additional pre-conditions to stall the US plan. It is also an Israeli acknowledgement that 'Daddy' Trump is in charge of the process.
During the recent Nato Summit, Nato secretary general Mark Rutte's sycophantic reference to Trump as 'Daddy', was a bit weird, but, in a strange way, appropriate. The reality is that the former real estate man in the White House, is not just 'primus inter pares', in Washington DC, he is also first among equals everywhere, as the Americans say, period.
Things are moving fast. As before, the US cleared the latest revised text of the ceasefire agreement proposals with the Israelis, which was passed on to Hamas. Hamas basically accepted the proposals with three reservations. First, they want a guarantee that Israel would not delay the negotiations as an excuse to resume the war. Secondly, they want the UN back in the role of humanitarian aid without the flow of aid being controlled by Israel. Thirdly, they want the IDF to withdraw to the positions they held before the ceasefire ended in March.
Fresh from receiving the 2024 Tipperary Peace Award, in Ballykisteen, Co Tipperary, Sheik Mohammed Al Thani, prime minister of Qatar, is now back in Doha, in charge of the Israel-Hamas peace process.
The Qataris signalled last Tuesday that they will need more time to bridge the gaps between both sides on the US proposals. On Friday, they proposed this Sunday as the deadline to conclude the agreement.
The objective is to get the framework for the agreement agreed this week, so that proximity talks on the truce can begin next week. Proximity talks are where the belligerents do not meet face-to-face but where a third party passes messages between them.
One technical point that remains unclear is whether US special envoy Steve Witkoff's proposals are
considered to be a fresh start in the talks, or the continuation of the ceasefire suspended in March. These 13-point proposals were outlined in the Examiner's previous analysis, on June 19.
Before going further on the ceasefire agreement, an update on the military situation will help to understand the context.
The IDF has an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 personnel committed to the Gaza operation. The IDF main formations are three to five mixed armour/mechanised infantry divisions, reinforced with specialist units, including combat engineering companies able to fight underground. They are mostly regulars and comprise the main fighting units of the regular army. This commitment would limit any additional extended operation by Israel, in Lebanon or Syria, at least for the time being.
The IDF ground offensive, which began with the objective of reoccupying 75% of Gaza, has reached the 65% target. Unlike previous ground operations, they are systematically neutralising selected sections of the tunnels' system. Probably for the first time in the war, the IDF is manoeuvring underground in synchronisation with the above ground offensive. However, the tunnels are turning out to be far more extensive and deeper than previously estimated. To destroy them all is now estimated to take many years.
Air support is being directed at Hamas fighters who appear on the surface, but also at suspect concentrations of civilians close to the IDF advance. The IDF action is mainly in Central and South Gaza, up to about the week before last, when they advanced into the North at Jabalia.
On Monday, the ultraorthodox Yehuda Battalion lost 5 KIA (killed in action)+ 14 WIA (wounded inaction) by a roadside bomb in Northern Gaza. Last week, a Hamas fighter managed to open the back door of an IDF armoured personnel carrier, throw in an explosive device, and close the door. Seven IDF soldiers were killed. The door was secured only by a rope, which seriously questions the issue of the maintenance of Israeli fighting vehicles.
In late January, before he left the Middle East, yesterday's man, former US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, made a seemingly casual observation, which contradicted IDF claims that Hamas was effectively degraded. Blinken said that Hamas had already replaced almost all their casualties. During the subsequent ceasefire (Phase 1), Hamas had ample opportunity to restore their losses. This means that they are probably back up to a strength estimated at 25,000.
US president Donald Trump with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in April. Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Hamas fighters are unable to move about as easily in the tunnels systems as heretofore. They must be short of ammunition although they can decant explosive material from the numerous unexploded shells lying about. The simplest roadside bomb consists of an unexploded shell and a detonator.
The Israeli objective in breaking the ceasefire in March was to degrade Hamas's military capabilities and disrupt their ability to govern the enclave.
The combination of the disruption of communications ,and the reoccupying of urban areas of Gaza by the IDF, will effectively remove Hamas's ability to govern Gaza, but they can still fight on in small but uncoordinated units.
However, while Israeli officials are negotiating in Doha, the hawks back in Jerusalem are talking about Israel governing Gaza for the immediate future. This means that the IDF's presence in Gaza will be prolonged indefinitely.
By yesterday morning, the two main issues unresolved are: who will organise the humanitarian aid distribution, and, to what extent will the IDF withdraw from Gaza?
The gap between both sides on these issues is wide and may stall the talks for some more days. US Envoy Witkoff's return to Doha has been delayed. When the gap has narrowed, the plan is for Witkoff to return and bring the agreement across the line. American diplomacy takes a leaf from those Western movies, where, just when the cowboys are about to be massacred by the Indians, the US Cavalry (Witkoff, Trump's representative on Earth) comes to the rescue.
But who will supervise the ceasefire and the 60-day truce? Governance of Gaza by Israel will lead to martial law implemented by the IDF. With over 57,800 dead, of which 85% to 90% are innocent civilians, are we now to witness another Srebrenica as the 25,000 Hamas fighters emerge from the catacombs into the daylight? Up to now the Israelis have never agreed to a peacekeeping mission for Gaza, but Trump could persuade them, especially if US troops participate. Watch this space.
Dorcha Lee is a retired army colonel and defence analyst, with extensive experience of UN peacekeeping in the Middle East.
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Irish Examiner
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