NHL 2024-25 midseason predictions: Fan picks for Stanley Cup winner, awards and more

New York Times

08-02-2025

By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger and James Mirtle
Is 2025 the year for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers? Plenty of The Athletic's NHL readers seem to think so.
We asked you for your thoughts on the top contenders for the Stanley Cup, the leading candidates to win individual awards and some of the league's biggest disappointments, and more than 2,500 of you filled out a 12-question ballot.
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To share and break down the results, we brought in NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
(Note: Some fan comments have been edited for length and clarity.)
You can find our staff's season predictions from October here and awards predictions here. You can find our predictions from November here, December here and January here.
"I picked the Stars to win at the season's start, but the Mikko Rantanen trade has changed that."
"I don't think there's one team head and shoulders above anyone for Stanley Cup favorites. Could be anyone this year."
Gentille: The fact that the Panthers are stuck in the 'other' group is a testament to how uneven they've been this season. I think they'll be fine, for the record.
Goldman: I feel like Colorado didn't get enough credit for revamping its entire goalie situation. But after the Rantanen trade, it makes a lot of sense to see its stock drop (despite how well Martin Necas is fitting in). It will be really interesting to see what they do in the weeks leading up to the deadline.
Granger: The Jets' reputation as playoff underperformers is showing up here in a big way. Winnipeg has inarguably been the best team in the league to this point. They're scoring the most goals, have the best goalie by a wide margin and are on another eight-game heater. Yet, it's hard to blame the 89.3 percent of fans who placed their vote elsewhere.
Mirtle: I'm with the 'could be anyone' voter … this is going to be a wild postseason.
Gentille: Given how much you folks like the Western Conference, this makes plenty of sense. Someone from the East would have to make it far enough to lose, and the Hurricanes just added a superstar to the mix.
Granger: West Coast bias for the win!
Goldman: The Canes are the one team that really fixed its (original) fatal flaw, so that separation makes sense in both categories from the other Eastern Conference teams.
Mirtle: A 51 percent chance of making the final is quite an endorsement of Carolina. Meanwhile, the Capitals have been the hottest team in the league of late and still haven't earned a lot of traction, even with Logan Thompson, who is a big advantage if he keeps playing the way he has.
Gentille: Feels like too large of a gap between Chicago and San Jose. Both teams are brutal, of course, but I think the Sharks' goaltending might give them the edge in the tank battle.
Goldman: Even with the Sharks goaltending situation, it feels like they are doing a better job of staying in some games … I'm sticking with the Blackhawks.
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Granger: If the Sharks continue to give Yaroslav Askarov a bigger share of the starts, San Jose's goalie situation might feel different in a few weeks.
Mirtle: Someone thinks the Rangers are going to concede a nearly 20-point lead with less than 30 games to go? They could play the Hartford Wolf Pack roster and that's not happening. Or are they just mad at their team? And who's under 'and more' here!?
Editor: Every club in the league except the Avalanche and Lightning received at least one vote. Probably from rival fans who just hate the teams.
"Look at the struggles in Nashville after it added big pieces to its roster, only to see the team sputter."
"The Sabres continue to underperform and disappoint."
"The Rangers quit for six weeks and tried to save their season once it was too late."
Gentille: The Preds are a disappointment, for sure, but their depth issues at center were always going to be a problem. I saw a team that could make the playoffs, but beyond that, eh. The Rangers have gotten their act together, to an extent, but it's still hard to pick anyone else.
Goldman: The Predators were the trendy answer to open the season, but the two problem children of the NHL, the Canucks and Rangers, should be leading this race.
Granger: I agree with you both, and the results at the top, but at the same time I can't help but feel like in truth, no one is more disappointed than fans of the Sabres. Maybe next year?
Mirtle: Maybe if we called it the biggest perennial trainwreck the Sabres would win something?
"The best surprise is between Washington and Columbus."
"Honorable mention to the Flames, who are a big surprise too, but I don't think anyone had Washington leading the league at any point this season."
"I wanted to vote Washington for best surprise, but it's hard to beat Columbus with all it's been through and how low its expectations were for the season."
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Gentille: The Caps were a playoff team that added a bunch of legitimate pieces in the offseason. The Blue Jackets, on paper, seemed like one of the few worst teams in the league. Come on.
Goldman: The least surprising part is that the Blue Jackets have morphed back into the Broken Jackets. But if they can power through all of these injuries, they're going to emerge as the true No. 1 here.
Granger: The Blue Jackets have been a revelation. It's not just that they're winning more games than we expected, but it's how they're doing it. Columbus is one of the more exciting teams to watch and can fill the net with pucks at a rate I don't think anyone saw coming.
Mirtle: How is Calgary not getting more love here? I saw a lot of folks had them bottom five coming into the season, and they have a real shot at the playoffs.
"Kirill Kaprizov would have won the Hart had he not gotten injured."
"Kaprizov would be the Hart winner if he weren't injured so much this year."
"If Draisaitl doesn't win the Hart, it'll be a travesty."
"Zach Werenski is the engine for the most surprising team in years, the Blue Jackets. … By the truest definition of the Hart, he is the most valuable player for a team picked to finish near the bottom of the league."
"Hellebuyck should win the Hart but I don't think the writers will give it to a goalie."
"Goaltending is such an underappreciated position. If Hellebuyck keeps up this level of play and doesn't win the Hart ... I don't think a goalie will ever win it again."
Gentille: This would be as good a season as any for a defenseman to win the Hart. Unfortunately, that's illegal.
Goldman: The Kaprizov points are so true because he was leading this race earlier this season. Draisaitl is the guy, but this is Quinn Hughes erasure.
Granger: I'm encouraged to see Hellebuyck with the third-most votes, but it's still not enough. He's the best player at the most important position, and he's putting up historically great numbers.
Mirtle: Nathan MacKinnon has been a one-man show a lot of nights lately for Colorado and leads the league in scoring, so if the voters are going to stay anti-non-forwards, he makes a ton of sense — if he can keep it up without Rantanen.
Gentille: Mark Scheifele is right behind Draisaitl and William Nylander in goals and couldn't even sniff the top 10. Tough break. I don't disagree, but it's a tough break.
Goldman: The fact that Scheifele and Kyle Connor play together definitely hurts their case — it makes the line better that there are two scoring threats, but it's a lot tougher to win this race when you're not the bona fide scorer of that line.
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Granger: It's hard to disagree with the voters here. It's Draisaitl's to lose.
Mirtle: Nylander is second in goals before Friday's matchups and wayyy down the list. What really stands out about his season is who he's played with: Some of his top linemates include Max Domi, Max Pacioretty and Pontus Holmberg, who have combined for 10 goals. Maybe we need some sort of award for scoring 50-plus because you have no one to pass to?
"When will the Norris be split into an offensive and defensive award?"
"NHL needs a defensive defenseman award to separate the offensive Norris winner from defensemen who are great at defense."
"A shame shutdown defenseman get overlooked."
"They need a new award for best defensive defenseman."
"I think the Norris Trophy winner is a complete toss-up. At the moment, Makar has more offensive production than Hughes, but it flip-flops depending on the night. … Werenski is a serious dark horse here as well."
"Werenski is my runner-up candidate for the Norris, but I can't vote for him over Hughes."
"Werenski plays tougher minutes than the other Norris contenders."
Gentille: Brutal category here. Hughes is my guy, at the moment, and I would've liked to see a few more votes for Werenski, but I can't argue with any of it. Any of the three could win, and it'd be deserved.
Goldman: The top three are spot on, but Werenski deserves more credit here.
Granger: This is the most entertaining of the trophy races this season, with three superstars who appear to be neck and neck.
Mirtle: Appreciate the love for a potential Rod Langway Award. Let's keep up the complaining!
GO DEEPER
Mirtle: Why the NHL needs a new award to better recognize defensemen
"Aleksander Barkov appears to have taken over Patrice Bergeron's crown as year-over-year Selke favorite."
"It kills me to vote for Barkov or any Panther to win ... but seems like a done deal."
"I'm not an Oilers fan but people need to realize that Draisaitl is playing amazing defensive hockey while scoring at an amazing rate … he needs to get Selke votes."
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Gentille: Barkov won this outright despite, like, 20 other plays getting votes. Sounds right.
Goldman: Even if Reinhart deserves more hype in this race, he will never get it over Barkov because he plays wing.
Granger: The fact that 'other' came in second place by a good margin tells you how subjective this trophy is, and why Barkov will likely get the nod due to reputation. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but that's how this award typically goes.
Mirtle: I feel like Anze Kopitar's incredible season, as the fifth oldest forward in the league, deserves more of a shoutout. He should be right in the thick of this one. (By the way, did you know that he's 23rd in all-time scoring adjusted for era?)
"Logan Thompson deserves a better fate than second for the Vezina, but that's likely where he'll end up."
Gentille: Thompson is playing for second here, but that $35.1 million contract is a nice consolation prize.
Goldman: It's Hellebuyck's to lose, but this isn't the only award he should be getting a lot of votes for.
Granger: Thompson has been brilliant. He's posted a save percentage of .940 or higher in more than half of his starts, which is ridiculous, but he just doesn't play enough to keep up with Hellebuyck, who is on his own planet right now.
Mirtle: Third and fourth in goals saved above expected entering Friday's matchups? Mackenzie Blackwood in Colorado and Lukas Dostal in Anaheim. Just saying!
"What Spencer Carbery is doing with the Capitals lineup is spectacular and completely deserving of recognition."
"Carbery oversaw the integration of even more pieces and it's all come together, so far, in Washington. One of the biggest reasons he deserves the Jack Adams."
"Carbery should be a lock for Jack Adams. Not sure there even needs to be a vote at this point."
"If Dean Evason doesn't get Jack Adams for what he's doing in Columbus this season, it should go to Carbery in Washington. Both are doing incredible in their respective cities."
"Love what Carbery has done in Washington this year, but if the Blue Jackets manage to squeeze in (the playoffs), how do you not give it to Evason?"
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Gentille: Carbery should be the wire-to-wire pick here, and he should've gotten more votes last year, too.
Goldman: Carbery definitely could have won this last year. But I think there is a really good conversation to have about him versus Evason, considering just how well the Blue Jackets have played this season.
Granger: I agree Carbery is the pick here, but I do appreciate some fans throwing votes on Rod Brind'Amour. When it comes to this award, he's a victim of his consistency and longevity. His teams are always so good, I think we take his contributions for granted.
Mirtle: I propose we get "The Carburetor" to stick as a nickname. He's certainly found the right mix in Washington. (And Toronto's power play has yet to recover without him.)
"Lane Hutson should be a close runner-up for the Calder!"
"Hutson deserves the Calder … amazing talent."
"If Hutson doesn't win the Calder, it will be a scandal."
"Hutson is overrated by Canadiens fans."
"Macklin Celebrini will win the Calder but Dustin Wolf SHOULD win."
"I think Wolf deserves the Calder, but Celebrini will win it."
"Celebrini is the real deal."
"Celebrini is damn impressive this year, but you can't ignore what Hutson is doing in Montreal."
"Matvei Michkov has already been going through a bit of a rookie wall which I believe Hutson and Celebrini will both hit soon and their play will fall off down the stretch, whereas Michkov will be used to dealing with it and has adapted to playing through the pain so to speak."
Gentille: Certainly seems like Hutson peaked a bit too early.
GO DEEPER
Settling the great NHL U23 prospect debate: Should Hutson, Bedard rank higher?
Goldman: Goalies never get the hype they deserve against forwards. I'm not disagreeing with Celebrini as the No. 1 pick, I just think Wolf is right up there with him.
Granger: Wolf has lived up to all of the hype, and then some. His 19 goals saved above expected are the fifth most by a goalie 23 years old or younger since Evolving-Hockey started tracking the stat in 2007.
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Mirtle: Wolf is also sixth in the entire NHL in goals saved above expected before Friday's matchups, ahead of a bunch of the biggest names in the game. Celebrini is 56th in points per game among forwards before Friday's matchups; Hutson is 45th in ice time among D before Friday's matchups. This one should be wayyy closer than this, especially if Wolf continues to start more frequently and Calgary makes the postseason. But what a rookie class this year. They've all been so fun to watch.
(Top photo of Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers celebrating a goal: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)