Putin races to seize Ukrainian land before Trump talks

Telegraph

19 hours ago

Russia is racing to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible ahead of peace talks with Donald Trump on Friday.
In what may prove to be a major breakthrough for Vladimir Putin, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units punched through exposed defences in eastern Ukraine, slipping as far as six miles behind the front line in just 48 hours, according to battlefield reports.
Kyiv has diverted special forces units to confront the insurgents on the ground, in a bid to prevent any more of Ukraine falling under Russia's control before the highly anticipated summit in Alaska.
The location, near Dobropillya in Donetsk, is strategically significant. If Moscow's forces are able to establish a foothold, the breach could allow Russia to cut off the city of Kramatorsk, one of the most vital strongholds in the Donbas still under Kyiv's control.
If the city falls, it would give Putin almost full control over the Donbas and strengthen his negotiating power when discussing Ukraine's fate with the Trump administration.
A narrow but strategic wedge
The territory seized lies to the east of Dobropillya, north of Pokrovsk and within striking distance of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka – the so-called 'fortress belt' that has anchored Ukraine's Donetsk defences since 2014.
Open-source mapping group DeepState reports that Russian units are pushing towards the Dobropillya–Kramatorsk highway, which until mid-July carried both military convoys and civilian traffic. Russian troops are also probing for footholds in Petrivka and Novovodiane, on the far side of the road.
On Tuesday, Ukraine's military confirmed clashes around Kucheriv Yar, acknowledging Russian advances. Without elaborating on the location, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said Russia was preparing new 'offensive operations'.
The new corridor places Dobropillya under direct threat. The mining town, already hit by repeated drone strikes, is emptying as civilians flee.
'It's a really difficult situation right now,' an officer from the 68th Brigade, who until very recently lived in Dobropillya, told The Telegraph. 'FVPs, gliding bombs and many other weapons are being used.'
A single Russian glide bomb recently wiped out much of the main avenue's shops. Once a quiet rear-area city, like nearby Pokrovsk, it now finds itself under growing pressure — the strikes are a prelude to something far larger.
On Monday night, local Telegram channels warned of suspected enemy infiltrators moving towards the city.
Such fighting in recent weeks has taken place along an unfinished defensive line, with strikes on excavators, construction teams and soldiers. Where there should have been three anti-tank trenches, dragon's teeth and concertina wire, the section breached by small assault groups had just one trench — and even that was incomplete.
'I want to believe that our guys are going to hold on as long as they can. I've lived in Dobropillya, and I know citizens who are still sitting and waiting for things to be changed in a good way', the officer said.
Popular military blogger Sternenko said on Telegram that Russian forces had also seized parts of the highway linking Donetsk's major population centres.
'The situation is critical,' he wrote.
The Dobropillya–Kramatorsk route is a key artery connecting the fortress belt to Pokrovsk and other hubs, facilitating the flow of supplies, reinforcements and evacuations. Control or disruption could strangle Ukraine's logistics, hampering defence of the Kramatorsk–Slovyansk stronghold.
Reports are already emerging of Russian FPV drones striking the road. If the highway is cut, Pokrovsk could be isolated, with a potential advance from Dobropillya completing its encirclement. Pokrovsk has already been under sustained Russian pressure for nearly a year and is flanked on three sides.
For the Kremlin, success here would boost momentum at a time when Russia is making slow but steady gains across the front line. It would mean securing a key logistics choke point and opening a direct route into the heart of the Donbas, undoubtedly the most symbolically important target for Putin.
If secured, it would also allow Putin to meet Mr Trump with tangible gains in hand as he presses Kyiv to give up land in Donetsk not even under the control of the Russian army.
Kyiv on the defensive
With Ukraine and Europe set to be frozen out of the Friday talks between Russia and the US, Mr Zelensky said on Tuesday: 'We see that the Russian army is not preparing to end the war. On the contrary, they are making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations.
'In such circumstances, it is important that the unity of the world is not threatened.'
Andriy Yermak, Mr Zelensky's closest adviser, added: 'Instead of showing readiness to end the war, the Russians are throwing everything they have into attacks on the front. The same barbaric tactics. And this at a time when Russia cannot even ensure the safety of its own skies for its citizens.'
But criticism of Ukraine's leadership, both military and political, has grown. Bohdan Krotevych, a lieutenant colonel in the national guard, accused decision-makers of ignoring warnings and claimed Mr Zelensky was not receiving full briefings.
'The line of combat engagement as a fixed line does not actually exist,' he said.
'Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are almost surrounded. Kostiantynivka is in a semi-encirclement. The enemy is advancing toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka,' Mr Krotevych continued.
'The problem has been escalating since last year. This was publicly warned about, and it has come to pass exactly as predicted.'
Yuri Podolyak, a pro-Russian military blogger, said Russia had yet to commit substantial forces to try and secure an operational breakthrough, with the offensive so far being carried out by sabotage groups, which are small, specialised units trained to conduct covert, disruptive operations behind enemy lines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the move is not yet a major breakthrough, but warned the next few days could prove pivotal as Russian forces look to consolidate their gains.
This potentially gives Ukraine a chance to thwart Russia's advance before it grows into something much larger.
Preliminary reports suggest the 33rd Brigade was deployed in the area of the Russian infiltration.
Fresh forces from the newly established 1st Azov Corps — made up of five brigades — have also been sent to stem the bleeding.
'Many times we can't rely on weaker units deployed on the flanks to do their job,' an Azov officer told The Telegraph days before problems in this sector of the front became public.
Elements of the strong 92nd Brigade were also sent in the past days, according to preliminary reports.
DeepState reports that Ukrainian troops are rushing to throw up new defensive lines around Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Shakhove and nearby settlements, positions currently bypassed by Russian troops but vulnerable to seizure.
'After final consolidation and accumulation, attempts to move deeper into the territory will be inevitable, and drone crews will be brought in, which will complicate the restructuring of alternative logistics and the maintenance of surrounding positions by Ukrainian forces,' DeepState warned.
'With this development of events, if it does not change, we may encounter a situation where Dobropillia falls faster than Pokrovsk.'
History repeating
Moscow has used peace talk cover for offensives before.
In 2014, Russian forces staged escalations in the run-up to and during negotiations, creating 'facts on the ground' to lock in gains before a ceasefire.
'This is critical. In both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage. The current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest,' said Tatarigami_UA, a former Ukrainian army officer whose Frontelligence Insight tracks the conflict closely.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, said the advance may have been designed to increase pressure on Kyiv to cede some land to prevent the Russian army from eventually taking the rest of Donetsk by force.
To do that, though, Russian forces would need to take control of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka - the so-called fortress cities.
Some analysts critical of Kyiv's handling of the situation have played down the severity — at least for now.
'We are still talking about a penetration rather than a breakthrough as the operational implications are still limited', said John Helin, analyst and founder of the Black Bird Group. 'Despite the depth, we're still mostly moving in the realm of tactics here, for now.'
The fear among some officers who spoke to The Telegraph is that the ongoing assault could be a prelude to a much larger breach.
The road reportedly taken by Russian forces runs along high ground, just like the one near Ocheretyne, a small village beyond Avdiivka that was designed to hold out, but whose fall in spring 2024 was followed by a major territorial loss.
The nature of Russia's latest assault also suggests Moscow may be shifting its strategy: seizing roads, fields and tree lines to force Ukrainians to abandon cities they can no longer supply or rotate troops into.
That would be the worst-case scenario, though — for now, what is happening appears to be small Russian units slipping through a porous defensive line without mechanised vehicles.
In any case, Ukraine will fear that by the time Putin sits down with Trump, he may already have shifted the map in his favour.