Democrats' Chances of Defeating Burt Jones in Georgia Governor's Race
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President Donald Trump weighed in on the Georgia gubernatorial race this week, endorsing Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones over Attorney General Chris Carr in the Republican primary. A political science professor weighed in on the chances of the Democrats beating Jones.
Newsweek reached out to the Jones and Carr campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Georgia has emerged as a new swing state in recent years, and Democrats are hoping to have their first gubernatorial victory in the state since 1999 in next year's midterms. Typically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, but gubernatorial elections tend to be a bit less partisan than federal races. Georgia is set to be one of the most important states next year, as it will have both a competitive Senate and gubernatorial race.
What to Know
Trump backed Jones in the critical race, giving him a potential boost over Carr among the state's conservative GOP electorate.
"He has been with us from the very beginning. I know his family well, and have seen Burt tested at the most difficult levels and times — He is a WARRIOR, a successful Businessman, former SEC Championship winning Georgia Bulldogs football player (Known for his toughness!), and now, as Lieutenant Governor, Burt has proven he has the Courage and Wisdom to deliver strong results for the incredible people of his wonderful State and Nation," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
That endorsement could win him over some voters in the GOP primary, but some less-MAGA affiliated Republican voters in the suburban areas near Atlanta may not necessarily be swayed by Trump's support, Charles Bullock, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek on Tuesday.
"Jones is certainly going to brag about, he is the Trump nominee. That's going to move the MAGA base, no doubt about that," he said. "But it's not the only kind of Republican you find in Georgia, especially in the primary, you're going to find the white, college-educated suburbanites who think of themselves generally as Republicans but are not MAGA."
Georgia Lt. Governor Burt Jones speaks during an event in Savannah, Georgia on September 24, 2024.
Georgia Lt. Governor Burt Jones speaks during an event in Savannah, Georgia on September 24, 2024.Polling of the race has not been made public—only a straw poll of at least 1,200 Republican voters in June ahead of the June convention. Georgia's James Magazine reported that Jones had a "massive early lead" in the poll, but specific numbers were not reported.
Jones, who had a business career before entering politics, may be able to carve out a financial advantage over both Democratic and Republican candidates, Bullock said. However, he is currently facing a lawsuit from Carr over a $10 million campaign loan.
Democrats do "have a shot" at winning the election next November, Bullock said.
The primary going to a runoff—which would happen if no candidate clears 50 percent—could benefit Democrats. That would "slow down" Republican efforts to unite after the primary, he said. There would be a greater risk of this if Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger joins the race.
"Runoffs get nasty," he said. "Attack ads become more numerous and more personal. So if indeed there were a bitter runoff between Jones and Carr, Jones and Raffensperger—whoever—that might make it very difficult if Jones were the ultimate winner in the runoff to reunite the party."
Jones is more MAGA-aligned, Bullock said, noting that Carr is a more traditional conservative and tied to Governor Brian Kemp, who has not made a formal endorsement.
"A Jones nomination would have to overcome that division, and if it were reinforced by a bitter runoff, that would make it much harder for him," he said.
Jeffrey Lewis Lazarus, professor of political science at Georgia State University, told Newsweek that Georgia is still a tough state for Democrats, despite recent victories.
"Most Democratic victories here have occurred against extraordinarily flawed (Trump, Herschel Walker) or inexperienced (Kelly Loeffler) candidates," he said. "A seasoned and relatively scandal-free GOP nominee should be the favorite to win."
Still, it is a "closely divided state," so nothing is guaranteed, he said.
On the other hand, this is a closely divided state, and nothing is guaranteed. But the Republican nominee, whoever it is, probably has the inside track.
What People Are Saying
Charlie Bailey, chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia, wrote in a statement: "Jones and Chris Carr have spent this entire primary trying to out-MAGA each other, and that won't change with Trump's endorsement. This GOP primary will continue to be a race to the right – and to the bottom – as Jones and Carr fight to prove who can be more in line with Trump's toxic agenda of Medicaid and Medicare cuts, sky-high costs, and billionaire tax handouts at the expense of hardworking Georgians."
Jeffrey Lewis Lazarus told Newsweek: "I haven't seen any polling so this is educated guesswork, but in my opinion Jones is probably the favorite. The GOP is more or less Trump's party at this point - he still has 90% approval among self-identified Republicans - and whoever is seen as being in his camp can make a strong claim to being a 'true conservative' or 'real Republican.'"
Burt Jones wrote in a post to X: "With President Trump's endorsement, we have the opportunity to take this campaign to the next level. Let's show America what real Georgia grit looks like."
Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donahue wrote in a statement: "For Burt Jones, fealty to extreme, partisan politics has always trumped doing what's right for Georgia — and that's why this endorsement shouldn't surprise anyone. Trump's support only further confirms what we already knew: Jones and the entire GOP field are running to bring DC Republicans' agenda of gutting health care and raising costs to Georgia."
What Happens Next
Georgia's primary is set for May 19, 2026.
The Cook Political Report considers the race as a pure toss-up. However, Sabato's Crystal Ball classifies the race as Leans Republican.
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