The Turkish Opportunist and the Double Dilemma
• With its latest strikes in Syria, Turkey has burned its bridges of goodwill with both Iran and Russia, despite mutual efforts to prevent a slide into outright hostility. Erdogan seized the opportunity presented by his two allies' preoccupations – Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran engaged in the al-Aqsa Flood war, while tightening his grip on a Syria weakened by U.S. sanctions and Israeli airstrikes.
• Yet, before Ankara could solidify its new foothold in Syria, Erdogan made another strategic move: welcoming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This was a direct response to signs of a U.S.-Russian understanding on ending the war in Ukraine, which threatens the future of Ukraine's leadership and possibly its very existence as an independent state. U.S. President Donald Trump even predicted that Ukraine would eventually become part of Russia. Erdogan's maneuver aligned with European frustration over Washington's unilateral approach.
• However, Turkey's gambit in Syria faces a major challenge as Israel, with explicit American backing, insists on security privileges that threaten Syria's unity and territorial integrity, violating its sovereignty. In exchange for de-escalation, Israel, openly supported by the U.S., is demanding Syria cedes the Golan Heights, a move that may later become a prerequisite for lifting American sanctions. Without U.S. sanctions relief, any European efforts to ease restrictions, particularly in the financial sector, would be rendered ineffective. Meanwhile, Turkey, having successfully sidestepped its obligation to offer meaningful support for Gaza during the Al-Aqsa Flood war, settling instead for rhetorical stances, now faces a new challenge. With its presence in Syria effectively giving it a direct border with Palestine, Turkey is confronted with obligations that are not imposed on Iran, which no longer has any ally positioned along a direct front with the occupation, including Hezbollah. The latter has adhered to transferring responsibility for ending the occupation in South Lebanon to the Lebanese state while ceding security control south of the Litani River. Thus, what once seemed like an opportunity for Turkey is now turning into a challenge.
• Similarly, Erdogan's Ukrainian gambit has also backfired. Turkey was blindsided by Europe's shift toward a U.S.-Russia settlement, leaving Ankara out in the cold. After investing heavily in both mediation efforts and supplying Ukraine with drones, Erdogan finds himself with nothing to show for it, his country leaves the feast empty-handed. Once again, what appeared to be a golden opportunity has turned into a fresh challenge.
• The question now facing Turkey is whether Erdogan can once again conjure a new opportunity to escape this predicament after losing the trust of many who repeatedly bolstered his rule?
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