Trump's threats gave Europe the political will to spend more on defense. But challenges are ahead

Independent

28-04-2025

Inside a sprawling hangar in Spain, workers bolt together a fuselage for European aerospace giant Airbus, which churns out jets and other military equipment.
The multinational conglomerate is a rarity in Europe's defense industry, backed by Spain, Germany, France and Britain. The norm for defense industries on the continent is big-name national champions and hundreds of small companies mostly working to fill orders for state governments.
That piecemeal paradigm could hinder Europe's plan for spending more on defense, which has been given a jolt — and previously unimaginable political backing — following U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to not protect NATO allies in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
For years, Trump has accused NATO allies of spending too little on their own defense. In recent months, the chasm in trans-Atlantic ties has grown. The Trump administration has signaled that U.S. priorities lie beyond Europe and Ukraine and that the time has come 'for Europe to stand on its own feet.'
The shortfall in defense spending is most evident is Spain.
Last year, it trailed all NATO allies in defense spending as a share of GDP, forcing the country to play catch-up this year to reach the alliance's 2% spending goal. NATO leaders are expected to again increase that goal this summer.
Europe-wide, industry leaders and experts have pointed out challenges the continent must overcome to be a truly self-sufficient military power, chiefly its decades-long reliance on the U.S. as well as its fragmented defense industry.
'Europe procures a majority of its defense material outside of Europe, and that's really something we have to depart from,' said Jean-Brice Dumont, head of air power at Airbus Defense and Space at the aircraft maker's factory outside Madrid. 'The journey until we get full autonomy is a long journey, but it has to be started.'
Moving out of Washington's shadow
The pro-defense shift in Europe can be seen in the stock markets, where major European arms makers such as BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy), Rheinmetall (Germany), Thales (France) and Saab (Sweden) have all been on the rise despite recent turmoil caused by Trump's tariffs.
European companies are poised to benefit from a push by European Union policy makers to ensure that as many euros as possible end up in European companies, as opposed to flowing across the Atlantic. The challenge is daunting, but not as scary as having to face a potential military threat without American help.
One question is: How quickly can production scale up?
An EU white paper published last month bluntly stated that Europe's defense industry is not able to produce defense systems and equipment sufficient for what member states need. It noted where much of the bloc's spending has taken place: the U.S.
Europe has relied on the U.S. not just for military equipment but also intelligence, surveillance and even software updates. Supply chain complexities mean that European-made equipment often use software or other components built and even operated by U.S. companies.
Airbus' A330 MRTT air-to-air refueling plane, made outside Madrid, is an example of specialized equipment called enablers that Europe largely lacks.
Another example is Sweden's Gripen fighter made by Saab, which has an engine made by American firm General Electric, noted Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute who studies Europe's arms industry.
According to a recent SIPRI report, more than half of Europe's arms imports from 2020 to 2024 came from the U.S.
Changing this paradigm will take years of sustained investment, Scarazzato said, and common vision across the bloc. 'It's going to be a massive overhaul of the whole command and control structure."
A fragmented industry
A fragmented defense industry in Europe reduces the interoperability of equipment, experts say, and makes it harder to build economies of scale.
For example, there are at least 12 types of tanks produced across the 27-nation EU, compared to just one used by the U.S. military, according to the European Defense Agency.
But there have been some recent positive developments in the private sector, the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted in its 2025 Military Balance report. Leonardo and Rheinmetall started a joint venture last year for combat vehicles.
Europe's capitals have historically looked to spend on their own local industries — not neighboring ones — to ensure jobs and feed national pride ingrained in manufacturing military hardware, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS.
'The fundamental economic heft is there. Partly it's a question of political will, partly the question of national pride and national identities," Barrie said. "While politicians can kind of advocate for consolidation, it has to be driven by individuals within industry, and it will be the industrialists who will see a logic in this.'
The urge for European governments to favor local manufacturers — instead of shopping among other European companies for better value — was evident this month when Spain announced that it will raise defense spending by an additional 10.5 billion euros ($12 billion) this year.
The government said 87% of that money would go to Spanish companies in the hopes of generating nearly 100,000 direct and indirect jobs and boosting Spain's GDP by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points.
'Every time there is a political interest in consolidation, that's what you bump into,' Barrie said.
Hope for the future?
The European Commission is offering 150 billion euros ($170 billion) for member states and Ukraine to buy air defense systems, drones and strategic enablers like air transport, as well as to boost cybersecurity.
It's part of a package of measures that include easing budgetary rules for defense spending and reshuffling EU funds to reflect security priorities.
Under the proposals, member states will be invited to buy at least 40% of defense equipment 'by working together' and trade at least 35% of defense goods between EU countries, as opposed to outside ones, by 2030.
Airbus' Dumont said his message for Europe's leaders was clear.
'Europe has to fund its European industry to prepare the defense of tomorrow, for the day after tomorrow and for the years to come. And that's what we see happening now.'
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Wilson reported from Barcelona, Spain. AP photojournalist Bernat Armangué contributed to this report.