Kurdistan As An Energy Alternative To Iran
On February 4, 2025, the U.S. President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" policy on Iran aiming to cut its oil exports to zero in order to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, neutralize Iran's terrorist network, and counter its aggressive development of missiles. [1]
In order to offset a potential fall in Iranian oil exports, according to Reuters, the U.S. government pressured Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart or face sanctions alongside Iran. [2]
(Source: X)
Kurdistan's Natural Resources
Oil reserves in Iraq are considered the world's fifth-largest proven oil reserves, with 150 billion barrels. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq holds 45 billion barrels of estimated oil reserves, almost a third of all of Iraq's crude oil reserves. In Syria, the Kurdish-held territory includes most of Syria's oil fields. According to the KRG's Ministry of Natural Resources: "The Kurdistan Region could hold as much as 200 trillion cubic feet (5.67 trillion cubic meters) of natural gas reserves, around three percent of the world's total reserves. This positions Kurdistan for a prominent role in regional and global gas markets." [3]
Iran May Attack Iraqi Kurdistan
Following the recent Erbil and Baghdad agreement to resume Kurdistan's oil exports, [4] Iran warned Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that it may launch airstrikes against Kurdish-Iranian opposition groups based in the Kurdish region if the security agreements between Baghdad and Tehran are not fully implemented. [5]
Iran has long viewed Iraqi Kurdistan as an energy competitor, [6] in the past two years Iran and its militias in Iraq have frequently bombed major gas and oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing civilians and causing serious damage to oil and gas production. Renewed threats from Iran to directly attack Iraqi Kurdistan are targeting U.S. interests.
Another factor is Iran's internal economic and political situation. Iran is economically weak and the dissatisfaction of the Iranian people is growing. The U.S. sanctions would further crumble Iran's economy, leading to anti-regime uprisings. The revenue generated by smuggling oil and unofficial trade with other countries has so far been enough to keep Iran from destabilizing, but it will not be enough to maintain a prolonged war. The faction that has historically played a major role in uprisings are the Kurds, who have frequently engaged in armed struggle against Tehran. Iran realizes that they would not have the means to maintain order if an uprising breaks out, hence they attempt to export their internal crisis to Iraq and its Kurdistan Region.
Conclusion
The Kurds have been instrumental partners for the United States in fighting against terrorism – more than 12,000 Kurdish fighters died fighting ISIS. The Kurdish regions are a safe haven for refugees fleeing religious and ethnic violence, especially Christian minorities. The Kurds have also been a bulwark against Iran's regional expansionism.
The U.S. should incorporate the Kurdish regions in Iraq and Syria into its Middle East policy not just as partners in the fight against terrorism but as regional allies, and an important energy alternative to Iran, which will be a more stable and also cheaper alternative. Further U.S. investments in Kurdistan's energy sector, as well as military and diplomatic support for the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, would greatly help the U.S. interests in the region.
*Himdad Mustafa is special advisor to MEMRI's Kurdish Studies Project.
[1] Whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-restores-maximum-pressure-on-iran, February 4, 2025.
[2] Reuters.com/business/energy/us-piles-pressure-iraq-resume-kurdish-oil-exports-sources-say-2025-02-21, February 21, 2025.
[3] Gov.krd/mnr-en/publications/gas, accessed February 25, 2025.
[4] Reuters.com/business/energy/kurdistan-regions-oil-exports-resume-next-week-iraqi-minister-says-2025-02-17, February 17, 2025.
[5] X.com/DrawMediaNet/status/1893137906224484419, February 22, 2025.
[6] Gisreportsonline.com/r/kurdish-energy-competition-iran, June 14, 2022.
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