Tour de France stage 15 preview: Sprinters eye rare chance for victory on hilly route to Carcassonne
Yesterday's stage 14 saw Thymen Arensman time his solo attack to perfection as he claimed the first Tour de France stage win of his career, holding off the late surge of Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar on a brutal mountain route through relentless rain and thick fog.
With Pogacar rampaging through the Pyrenees, winning atop Hautacam on stage 12, then demolishing the field in the time trial on stage 13, the destiny of the Tour de France title is looking fairly well sewn up – but there are plenty more individual victories to fight for and today, with its final descent and flat run-in to the line, is unlikely to be one the marauding Slovenian has an eye on.
It'll be a reprieve for the sprinters, who slogged their way through the high mountains in the grupetto to make it to the start line in Muret today, but they've got another fight on their hands, of a different kind.
Today's stage is a 169km run from Muret to Carcassonne covering some bumpy terrain, so this will be a real test of recovery after the previous three days.
That is of course if it even comes down to a sprint at all: the peloton's breakaway specialists endured slim pickings over the weekend as the GC riders came to the fore, and today's stage certainly suits some enterprising escapees.
There are three categorised climbs to get over in a lumpy middle of the stage: the cat-three Cote de Saint-Ferreol, the cat-three Cote de Soreze, and the cat-two Pas de Sant. Saint-Ferreol sets the tone, short but sharp at 7% for 1.7km kilometres. The Soreze is longer at 6.2km, averaging 5.5%, but it's the Pas de Sant that might spell doom for the sprinters: 2.9km at an average of 10.2%.
And there's plenty more uncategorised climbing too - including the late climb up the Col de Fontbruno, which isn't marked but follows immediately on from the categorised Pas du Sant. It sees the riders climb to 880m above sea level, before a long, broken-up, 40km into Carcassonne and a flat finish.
If the sprinters' teams have their lead-out trains organised they could gather up any stragglers and make a late chase on that final descent and flat approach - but the likes of Mathieu van der Poel could foil them, with attacks likely to come all day and especially on the last categorised climb. Either way it should make for a fascinating day of racing.
Route map and profile
Start time
Today's stage has a more standard start time after yesterday's early rise: 1.20pm local time, 12.20pm BST, with an expected finish of 5.10pm local time (4.10pm BST).
Prediction
Today's stage could favour literally anyone. Successful breakaways have been few and far between this Tour and as such I'm leaning towards a puncheur making a dramatic escape and holding off the sprinters' teams... but hedging my bets.
Mathieu van der Poel has been a stalwart of breakaways so far and may fancy another crack today; likewise Wout van Aert, with a rest day to recover ahead of his Alpine duties for team leader Jonas Vingegaard.
But I'm going with Julian Alaphilippe; his climbing legs haven't been so great in this race but he's a demon descender and could build his lead on the hair-raising downhill into Carcassonne. Alaphilippe's Tudor stablemate Marc Hirschi has looked off the boil for much of this Tour but could do something today too; likewise Bruno Armirail, another Frenchman who's in sparkling form and who built up an astonishing lead over his former breakaway companions on the descent of the Col du Soulor on stage 12.
If it does come down to a sprint, Tim Merlier has had the beating of green jersey Jonathan Milan in their two duels so far, with Milan's only stage victory coming on stage eight when the European champion was distanced following a late mechanical.
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