Elbows-up tourism surge could see sector ‘eke out' a gain even as Americans stay away

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From the front desk of Hotel Bedford in Goderich, Ont., Lynda Cross welcomes guests from regions ranging from southern Ontario to the South Pacific.
'A lot of them come from Toronto,' said the manager, standing just inside the Romanesque arches of the 129-year-old establishment. 'Just lately, we've had a few groups come from Australia' — a first, she said.
But one crop of tourists has been conspicuously absent this year: Americans.
'May and June have been slow.'
A groundswell of economic patriotism has stoked curiosity in Canadian destinations, fuelling a domestic bookings surge as travellers turn away from cross-border trips. But a drop in American visitors north of the border and fears that many Canadians will simply stay home to save money has many wondering whether homegrown and overseas tourism can make up for the stateside decline.
Canadian vacationers' boycotting the U.S. could net this country's tourism sector up to $8.8 billion in extra business this year as travellers explore spots closer to home, according to a report from the Conference Board of Canada.
An April survey on travel intentions prompted the group to predict a windfall despite fewer border crossings this year by American tourists — Canada's largest source of inbound travellers by far.
The number of Americans who visited Canada by car fell nearly 11 per cent in April compared with the same month last year, the third straight month of year-over-year decreases, according to Statistics Canada.
While trip numbers for Canadians heading to the U.S. have fallen off far more steeply as part of a backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and '51st state' threats, Americans' more moderate pullback owes to factors ranging from pinched pocketbooks to fears of feeling unwelcome to angst over the border crossing on the drive home.
The American retreat could hit communities that hug the border especially hard.
'Border towns that have tended to experience the shorter, more frequent back-and-forth visits — those are going to be communities that are going to be more heavily affected,' said Andrew Siegwart, who heads the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario.
Duty-free stores have seen their revenue drop by 60 to 80 per cent in the last few months, according to an association representing 32 of the mostly mom-and-pop shops.
Whether overseas travellers can make up for much of the lower American traffic across the country is questionable.
Visitor volume from China, previously a key source of tourists, sat at 40 per cent of 2019 levels last year amid ongoing restrictions on group travel to Canada, according to Destination Canada.
The federal government imposed new visa requirements on Mexican visitors last year, making it harder for tourists from that country to come.
'Travel from India has also been down for a number of reasons. So it's going to take some time,' said Siegwart.
However, many America-averse Canadians are spending their travel budget in their own backyards.
More than half of respondents to a survey released Monday by Ontario's travel regulator said they were more likely to make excursions closer to home, with the trend holding across all age groups.
'It could be a year where we manage to stay on par with last year, or maybe even eke out a little bit of a gain,' said Siegwart. But he acknowledged the hurdle of consumer anxiety over the economy.
'I'm cautiously optimistic," he said, "but it's too early to tell.'
Summer bookings were either the same or higher than last year at two out of three businesses surveyed by the association in a poll released last month.
John Steele, who owns seven hotels in Newfoundland and Labrador and one in Fredericton, said visitor levels look 'pretty good' at most of his properties but softer in Gander.
New direct flights to St. John's from London and Paris have made it easier for international travellers to come from away.
'Air access seems to be improving for us. That's a big thing for us,' Steele said.
At Okanagan Wine Country Tours in British Columbia, bookings from Europe and the United Kingdom have risen about 20 per cent year-over-year, said partner and manager Marsha Morrish.
'The traffic from Quebec is up substantially,' she added.
Americans are more tepid — even those who do head north.
'They did email me to do a bit of a temperature check on how Canadians were feeling about Americans visiting,' Morrish said, referring to a Colorado couple coming up to sample Pinot Gris.
While there's a chance American tourist numbers could surge, it's unlikely to happen this year, Siegwart suggested — including for corporate gatherings.
'Some convention centres, both in Ontario and across the country, have seen some drops in American conference bookings.'
Much of it has to do with personal safety and security, as some workers worry about how they'll be treated at the border.
'Depending on your immigration status, depending on if you're a member of an LGBTQIA community, if your gender markers or identities on your passports are different than your gender expression — all sorts of things like that are really coming into play,' Siegwart said.
"My colleagues south of the border are a little more cautious in how they plan things because of the unpredictable way in which their administration is conducting business."
On the flip side, there's more interest from corporate event planners in Europe 'who still want to come to North America but see Canada as a safer bet.'
Some Americans remain undeterred though.
'I've seen way more people from the States this year,' said Wendy Mooney, owner of Country Hideaway RV Campground, which sits barely a kilometre from the border in the B.C.'s West Kootenay region.
'Some people just fly by the seat of their pants.'
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 9, 2025.
Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press