Should Packers extend Romeo Doubs? What the stats say about Jordan Love's trusted target

USA Today

3 days ago

Should Packers extend Romeo Doubs? What the stats say about Jordan Love's trusted target
With three years of NFL experience under his belt, the Green Bay Packers have a firm grasp on what kind of player Romeo Doubs is. His strengths, weaknesses and overall ceiling are fairly well established at this point as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.
Based on the stats he has put up, here is what we know about Doubs three years into his NFL career:
Strengths
The biggest strengths of Doubs' game are his ability to win contested catches and to put the ball in the end zone. These are the types of traits that could be labelled as "clutch," and Doubs has certainly been reliable for his quarterback when a play needs to be made.
Among qualified NFL receivers, Doubs ranks in the 64th percentile for contested catch rate, and the 88th percentile since 2023, when Jordan Love took over from Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
He has 16 career touchdowns, including nine in 2023, and ranks in the 71st percentile for touchdowns per target over the last two years.
With the type of quarterback Love is in terms of being willing to throw the ball up and give his guy a chance to make a play, Doubs has been a valuable asset in the receiver room as someone Love can trust in the red zone or when they absolutely need a play.
This is also evidenced by his excellent drop rate deep downfield, where he ranks in the 98th percentile.
Doubs has performed well against zone coverage, particularly in the last two years, ranking in the 69th percentile for yards per reception (Y/REC) and the 72nd percentile for yards per route run (Y/RR) versus zone since 2023.
Weaknesses
The weakest area of Doubs' play to this point is his ability, or lack thereof, to get yards after the catch and make people miss.
He ranks in just the 34th percentile for yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC) and the 22nd for missed tackles forced per reception (MTF/REC) since entering the league. It is simply not part of his skill set.
Like some of Green Bay's other receivers, Doubs has had his battles with drops. He ranks in the 28th percentile for drop rate since 2022.
Also similarly to some of his teammates, he has not performed especially well against man coverage.
He lands in the 32nd and 21st percentile in Y/REC and Y/REC respectively when facing man coverage since 2022, has never ranked above average in either metric and in 2023, ranked dead last in Y/RR versus man.
Doubs has not been much of a deep threat in his NFL career so far either, ranking in the 17th percentile for Y/REC and the 30th for Y/RR 20+ yards downfield.
These may seem like short lists of true strengths and weaknesses, and that is a fair reflection of Doubs as a player. He is solid in most aspects of receiver play but does not have many areas he really excels or is a liability.
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Doubs has improved his effectiveness year on year in the short part of the field year on year, and it was the best part of his game in terms of receiving depth in 2024.
From his rookie season through year three, his Y/REC ranking increased from the 14th percentile to the 41st and then the 64th, while his Y/RR ranking went up from the 12th percentile to the 53rd and then the 70th.
He ranked in the 74th percentile in drop rate and the 87th in contested catch rate between 0-10 yards downfield in 2024, leading the team in first downs picked up in that area, another indicator of the trustworthy player he has become.
Although his performance against man coverage has been suboptimal, Doubs did improve in 2024 and managed career high ranks of the 45th and 43rd percentile for Y/REC and Y/RR respectively.
Doubs has become a stronger run blocker each year. His PFF run block grade ranked in just the 23rd percentile as a rookie, but rose to the 33rd percentile in 2023 and jumped significantly to the 64th percentile last year.
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After appearing to put his issues with catching the ball behind him in 2023, ranking in the 53rd percentile, the drops reappeared in 2024, as Doubs ranked in the 26th percentile in drop rate compared to the rest of the league.
The Packers have a decision to make on Doubs, who is set to hit free agency at the conclusion of the 2025 campaign.
Based on what he has shown so far, the deep, young receiver room he is part of, the lack of reporting around the team wanting to keep him, and the rumors he may have been dangled to Seattle in trade talks for DK Metcalf, it seems unlikely Doubs will get an extension in Green Bay.
He is a solid player and has provided real value to the Packers, serving an underrated role, but he does not appear to be the quality of player they will pay, especially given the other contracts they have to handle in 2026.
Doubs should have a strong market in free agency a year from now and be paid well, but barring a significant improvement in a host of areas this season, taking him from a slightly above average to difference-making wideout, it will not be Green Bay writing the check.