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China's nuclear arsenal growing fastest, to touch 1,500 warheads by 2035: SIPRI
China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear weapons arsenal and could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the United States and Russia by 2030, according to latest analysis from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI). read more
A Dongfeng-41 intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles group formation marches to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, on October 1, 2019 (Photo: Shen Shi/Imagine China/Reuters)
China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal that is expected to more than double over the next decade, according to latest analysis from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI).
In the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, analysts said that China is adding 100 nuclear warheads to its arsenal every year and has at least 600 nuclear warheads.
By 2025, China is expected to have 1,500 warheads, according to the analysis.
The SIPRI's findings are in line with the US intelligence assessment from last year that found that China has been carrying out 'most rapid expansion and ambitious modernisation of its nuclear forces in history'.
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The United States and Russia have the world's largest nuclear arsenals with more than 10,500 warheads among them.
China could have as many ICBMs as US, Russia
China is not just expanding the nuclear arsenals, but is also expanding storage and launch sites, according to SIPRI.
By 2035, China would have completed around 350 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in three large desert fields in the country's north and three mountainous areas in the country's east, as per SIPRI.
Analysts noted that this would mean that China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either the United States or Russia by the end of the decade even though nuclear warheads would just be a tiny fraction compared to them.
Photo Credit: Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI)
In an assessment last year, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) doubled its estimate of China's nuclear arsenal and said that China had more than 500 nuclear weapons and was on track to have more than 1,000 by 2030. In 2023, China was assessed to have 200 warheads.
Among the most concerning findings, the DIA said that China could junk the no-first-use (NFU) policy and may be open to a 'limited' nuclear war.
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Indian Express
an hour ago
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How India's defence spending is aligned with its regional ambition
West Asia is among the regions witnessing the steepest defence spending largely driven by the Israel-Gaza conflict, according to the 2025 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict only compounds the situation. At the same time, South Asia has emerged as one of the fastest militarising regions worldwide, exacerbating security concerns across Asia. But what are the major factors behind increased military spending worldwide and, specifically, in the Indo-Pacific region – home to seven of the 10 largest militaries? Global militarisation is accelerating at a pace unseen since the Cold War, with South Asia and the Indo-Pacific emerging as the key theatres of this trend. According to the SIPRI, global defence spending in 2024 surpassed $2.7 trillion, with over one-fifth coming from Asia and Oceania. Driven by declining geopolitical trust, nuclear competition, and escalating rivalries, defence spending has now increased for ten consecutive years. Across the Himalayas and throughout the Indian Ocean, military buildups are growing more complex and consequential. The SIPRI estimates show that global defence spending rose by 9.4 per cent in 2024 in real terms, reaching approximately $2.72 trillion. The five largest military spenders – the US, China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia – together contributed around 61 per cent of global defence expenditures. The steepest regional increases were observed in Europe (17 per cent) and West Asia, largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. The total world spending rose by 37 per cent in the past decade and the US continued to be the largest spender with $997 billion in 2024 – 3.2 times more than the next biggest spender, China. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) presents an alternative estimate, placing global defence spending at $2.46 trillion for 2024 – a 7.4 per cent increase after adjusting for inflation. Although both sources confirm a significant rise in global defence budgets, the SIPRI uses a more comprehensive accounting method – covering pensions and paramilitary forces – while IISS restricts its focus to formal military allocations. South Asia has emerged as one of the fastest militarising regions worldwide. According to the SIPRI, India's military expenditure in 2024 stood at $86.1 billion, a 1.6 per cent increase from the previous year, placing it fifth among the top global spenders. Meanwhile, Pakistan's defence budget was estimated at $10.2 billion, nearly nine times less than India's, although Islamabad has now proposed a 20 per cent hike in military spending for 2025–26 in response to the recent military showdown with India. India's defence strategy largely revolves around addressing simultaneous challenges – maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control with China and mitigating asymmetric security threats from Pakistan, particularly terrorism. With increasing maritime commitments and aspirations to become a regional security provider, India's military focus is now deeply tied to its vision for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The Indian Navy has seen steady modernisation, with over $21 billion earmarked for equipment in the 2025–26 budget. Pakistan continues to rely on a blend of conventional and nuclear deterrence. Although its economic situation limits long-term defence investments, its military planning remains responsive, aimed at preserving some degree of strategic balance with India. Islamabad's increasing dependence on Chinese support, including under initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), enhances its military capacity but also deepens geopolitical reliance. The Indo-Pacific region, home to seven of the 10 largest militaries, has become the focal point of the global rise in military expenditures. Three interconnected factors define this: China's increasingly assertive military posture, India's balancing efforts, and the strategic involvement of the US and its allies in shaping regional security. — China: With a defence budget of $314 billion in 2024 – up 7 per cent from 2023 – China continues its three-decade trait of steady rise in military spending. IISS offers a slightly lower figure of $296 billion, noting a 6 per cent real-term increase. China is responsible for nearly 50 per cent of defence expenditure across Asia and Oceania, with its priorities centred on expanding anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, enhancing maritime surveillance, and updating its nuclear forces. China's activities in the South China Sea, its port-building spree across the IOR, and its sharpening rhetoric on Taiwan have alarmed regional powers. — India: India's spending rose modestly by SIPRI's estimate (1.6 per cent), but IISS reports a 4.2 per cent increase, possibly due to exchange rate adjustments and accounting categories. Strategically, India is placing increasing emphasis on maritime security, deterrence against China, and technological self-reliance. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh outlined a vision of 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' in defence production, with a target of 1.75 lakh crore (approx. $21 billion) in domestic military manufacturing in 2025. — Pakistan: Faced with growing fiscal constraints, Pakistan's real defence capacity remains limited. Yet, the proposed 20 per cent hike in 2025–26 aims to send a strong political message after its April 2025 confrontation with India. The addition of military pensions and a significant allocation for equipment purchases reflects its desire to keep pace strategically despite economic headwinds. — Japan and Australia: Japan's defence budget reached $55.3 billion in 2024, registering a 21 per cent increase, as Tokyo moves away from its post-WWII pacifism. Australia too continues to scale up, with its outlay of $33.8 billion, driven by the AUKUS agreement and a perceived need to counterbalance China in the Pacific. These actors amplify the Indo-Pacific's shift from a trade-first paradigm to a security-centric theatre. Military spending in the IOR is not driven by economics alone – it is fed by an uptight mix of strategic distrust, nuclear deterrence, and sovereignty concerns. Nuclear posturing The nuclear arms race is once again intensifying, especially in Asia. According to SIPRI's latest estimates, the total number of nuclear warheads globally stands at 12,241, with 9,614 in military stockpiles and around 3,912 deployed, some on high alert. The US and Russia together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. One of the most concerning trends is the continuous growth and upgrading of nuclear arsenals, particularly among China, India, and Pakistan. China is estimated to have between 500 and 600 nuclear warheads and is reportedly expanding its arsenal by around 100 warheads per year. Over 350 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) silos are also under development. It is building a robust second-strike capability through sea- and air-based systems. India is developing its nuclear triad with technologies like canisterised missile systems and ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), aiming to enhance both deployment flexibility and survivability. Pakistan is gradually expanding its nuclear arsenal and placing growing emphasis on tactical nuclear capabilities for potential use in regional conflict. This expansion is closely linked to the deteriorating regional security situation. The 2025 India-Pakistan war and China's assertiveness in the South China Sea have added urgency to nuclear preparedness. Compounding this are the failures of global arms control – such as the uncertain fate of New START – and the lack of regional risk-reduction mechanisms. West Asia is witnessing the consequences of this setback. In the Indian Ocean Region, the presence of nuclear-armed submarines, especially from China and India, increases the risk of miscalculation. Without new confidence-building measures, the regional nuclear competition threatens to destabilise rather than deter. Territorial and maritime disputes China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea and increased naval presence in the Eastern IOR (Gwadar, Djibouti, Maldives) are reshaping strategic calculations. India's response has been to deepen naval outreach, participate in multilateral naval exercises (like Malabar), and build infrastructure in the Andaman-Nicobar command. Deterrence by denial Rather than deterrence by punishment, many states in the region are focusing on deterrence by denial – developing submarine fleets, surveillance networks, and air defence systems to deny adversaries access to key maritime zones. Securitisation of the commons Even areas like seabed mapping, undersea cables, and marine biodiversity – once under scientific or civilian control – are now being securitised. This blurs the line between peace-time preparations and war-time readiness. The Indo-Pacific is evolving into one of the most militarised regions globally. Although modernisation and deterrence can promote security, the absence of clear military doctrines, effective arms control frameworks, and reliable confidence-building channels increases the risk of accidental escalation. Despite their significant military budgets, India and China lack dedicated hotlines or transparent mechanisms to verify each other's military activities – raising the risk of miscalculation during crises. India and Pakistan continue to observe a fragile ceasefire, but sustained diplomatic engagement and backchannel communications are largely absent. In such a context, every military drill, arms purchase, or border incident becomes a potential flashpoint. There is an urgent need to reinvigorate CBMs – such as greater transparency in defence spending, advance notification of military drills, collaborative disaster-response training, and open dialogues on maritime security. Multilateral institutions like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and ASEAN need to be empowered to facilitate such efforts. Long-term strategic stability in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific needs to go beyond deterrence. It demands sustained dialogue, responsible restraint, and a shared understanding that economic progress cannot flourish amid constant military tension. According to recent reports by SIPRI and IISS, defence spending has increased for ten consecutive years globally. Evaluate major reasons behind this trend. What does India's rising defence expenditure reveal about its strategic priorities? How is India's defence strategy balancing its continental challenges with maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region? In what ways does India's approach to balancing power in the Indo-Pacific illustrate its broader strategic goals amid China's assertiveness and increasing US-led alignment in the region? (K.M. Seethi is the Director of Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, and former Senior Professor of International Relations at the same university.) Share your thoughts and ideas on UPSC Special articles with Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.


News18
2 hours ago
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The missile has three main phases: Boost phase: During this, the missile is launched using powerful rocket engines. It ascends rapidly, usually reaching the edge of space. This phase lasts a few minutes. The missile is guided while the engines are firing. Midcourse phase: After the engines shut off, the missile coasts through space. It follows a curved, arcing path — like a thrown ball. If equipped with MIRVs, multiple warheads are released here. This is the longest phase (can last up to 20 minutes for ICBMs). Terminal phase: The warhead re-enters the atmosphere. Gravity pulls them down at extreme speeds. The missile is no longer powered — it's just falling, guided by its momentum. This phase takes less than a minute. WHAT DOES IT CARRY? A ballistic missile can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Some are equipped with Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), allowing one missile to hit multiple targets. HOW ARE THEY LAUNCHED? Ballistic missiles travel at extremely high speeds, measured in Mach which is equivalent to the speed of sound. ICBMs can exceed Mach 20. Shorter-range ballistic missiles reach supersonic speeds (faster than Mach 1, or about 1,225km/h or 761 miles per hour), while others, usually longer-range missiles, can travel at hypersonic speeds – greater than Mach 5 (6,125km/h or 3,806mph) HOW IS A BALLISTIC MISSILE DIFFERENT FROM CRUISE OR DRONES? A ballistic missile is launched into the upper atmosphere and follows a high, arcing path under the influence of gravity, reaching very high speeds and typically used for long-range or strategic targets. A cruise missile flies at low altitudes like an unmanned aircraft, is guided throughout its flight, and is designed for precision strikes over medium to long distances. 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With a reported range of 1,400 km, these missiles can reach Israel in under 7 minutes, making them challenging targets for interception systems like the Iron Dome. CAN THEY BE INTERCEPTED? Ballistic missiles may vary in range, but all operate on the same basic principle. Since ballistic missiles travel through the air for a significant duration, radar systems can detect their launch early. This allows for the calculation of their likely impact point, enabling the launch of anti-ballistic missiles to intercept them mid-flight. When a ballistic missile begins its descent, it drops like a stone under the influence of gravity, with none of its rocket motors active for manoeuvring. This makes it impossible to spoof or divert. However, it can still be intercepted using a well-timed anti-ballistic missile. top videos View all The speed of a hypersonic missile, which can reach around 6173 kilometres per hour, makes interception nearly impossible with existing systems. The aerial distance between Israel and Iran is approximately 2,000 kilometers. Some missiles can travel at speeds up to Mach 10—ten times the speed of sound—posing a significant challenge to air defence systems. Intercepting a hypersonic missile would require either a hypersonic air defence system or a faster interceptor missile capable of speeds between 10 and 25 Mach, neither of which are currently available. A single supersonic interceptor missile is insufficient to engage targets moving at hypersonic speeds. With Inputs From Agencies About the Author Manjiri Joshi At the news desk for 17 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing special copies ...Read More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : israel iran Israel Iran tension Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 17, 2025, 17:18 IST News explainers How Long Does It Take For Iran's Ballistic Missiles To Reach Israel? The Weapon Explained


Scroll.in
3 hours ago
- Scroll.in
India has more nuclear warheads than Pakistan, China far ahead: Global arms watchdog
Although India has a slight edge over Pakistan in terms of the number of nuclear warheads, it is far behind China, said the global arms watchdog Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, on Monday. According to the organisation's assessment, India has 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170. China is estimated to have 600 nuclear warheads as of January. Of these, 24 are deployed warheads, which means that they are either placed on missiles or are located at bases with operational forces. Nine countries currently have nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Of these, Russia, with 5,459 warheads, and the United States, with 5,177, have the largest total nuclear inventories. India is believed to have slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024 and continues to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems, SIPRI said in its yearbook on Monday. 'India's new 'canisterised' missiles, which can be transported with mated warheads, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads during peacetime, and possibly even multiple warheads on each missile, once they become operational,' it said. The organisation made a note of last month's four-day military conflict between India and Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22. In this context, Matt Korda, the associate senior researcher with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said: 'The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis. This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons.' Indian officials, including Chief of Defence Staff Anil Chauhan, have maintained that during the conflict in May, neither side came close to considering the use of nuclear weapons, The Times of India reported. Nevertheless, Korda remarked: 'As the recent flare-up of hostilities in India and Pakistan amply demonstrated, nuclear weapons do not prevent conflict. They also come with immense risks of escalation and catastrophic miscalculation – particularly when disinformation is rife – and may end up making a country's population less safe, not more.' The SIPRI report said that China's nuclear stockpile is growing faster than that of any other country. 'By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east,' it said.