Venezuela Oil Output Weathers Chevron Exit With Diluent Spree
State-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA has maintained average output of about 1.1 million barrels a day in June and July, according to figures seen by Bloomberg. Chevron, which pumped nearly a quarter of Venezuela's barrels, lost key licenses to operate in the country near the end of May as the Trump administration sought to pressure President Nicolas Maduro.
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Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Cocoa Prices Pressured as Supply Concerns Ease
September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) today is -49 (-0.60%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) is down -111 (-2.02%). Cocoa prices are sliding today, with NY cocoa posting a 2-week low and London cocoa posting a 1-week low. Cocoa prices are under pressure on speculation that cocoa will be exempt from President Trump's tariffs, which would ease supply concerns. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted last week that goods not produced in the US could be exempted from tariffs. More News from Barchart Is the Corn Market Undervalued? Below-Average Rain in Brazil Supports Coffee Prices Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Last week, cocoa prices rallied to 1-month highs on concern that the slowdown in the pace of Ivory Coast cocoa exports could tighten global supplies. Today's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.76 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to August 3, up +6% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. Concerns about dry weather in West Africa are also bullish for cocoa prices. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October. Concerns over tepid chocolate demand are bearish for cocoa prices. Last month, chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales. Also, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance earlier this month for a second time in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices. The company projects a decline in full-year sales volume and reported a -9.5% drop in its sales volume for the March-May period, the largest quarterly decline in a decade. Cocoa prices sold off last month, with NY cocoa sinking to an 8.5-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa slumping to a 17-month nearest-futures low. Weakness in global cocoa demand has hammered prices. The European Cocoa Association reported on July 17 that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell by -7.2% y/y to 331,762 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -5% y/y. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings fell -16.3% y/y to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in 8 years. North American Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.8% y/y to 101,865 MT, which was a smaller decline than the declines seen in Asia and Europe. In a bearish development, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports reached a 10.5-month high of 2,368,141 bags on July 22. Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25. Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa prices have support from quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT. Another supportive factor for cocoa is smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects Nigeria's 2025/25 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
The Hill
22 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump's deadline for the Kremlin looms but Putin shows no sign of making concessions
The coming week could mark a pivotal moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for the Kremlin to reach a peace deal approaches — or it could quietly pass without consequence. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff was expected in Moscow midweek, just before Trump's Friday deadline for the Kremlin to stop the killing or face potentially severe economic penalties from Washington. So far Trump's promises, threats and cajoling have failed to shift the Kremlin's position, and the stubborn diplomatic stalemate remains in place. Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing more territory on the front line, although there is no sign of a looming collapse of its defenses. Trump's envoy is expected in Moscow Witkoff is expected to land in the Russian capital on Wednesday or Thursday, according to Trump, following his trip to Israel and Gaza. 'They would like to see (Witkoff),' Trump said Sunday of the Russians. 'They've asked that he meet so we'll see what happens.' Trump, exasperated that Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn't heeded his calls to stop bombing Ukrainian cities, a week ago moved up his ultimatum to impose additional sanctions on Russia as well as introduce secondary tariffs targeting countries that buy Russian oil, including China and India. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that officials are happy to meet with Trump's envoy. 'We are always glad to see Mr. Witkoff in Moscow,' he said. 'We consider (talks with Witkoff) important, substantive and very useful.' Trump is not sure sanctions will work Trump said Sunday that Russia has proven to be 'pretty good at avoiding sanctions.' 'They're wily characters,' he said of the Russians. The Kremlin has insisted that international sanctions imposed since its February 2022 invasion of its neighbor have had a limited impact. Ukraine insists the sanctions are taking their toll on Moscow's war machine and wants Western allies to ramp them up. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday urged the United States, Europe and other nations to impose stronger secondary sanctions on Moscow's energy, trade and banking sectors. Trump's comments appeared to signal he doesn't have much hope that sanctions will force Putin's hand. The secondary sanctions also complicate Washington's relations with China and India, who stand accused of helping finance Russia's war effort by buying its oil. Since returning to office in January, Trump has found that stopping the war is harder than he perhaps imagined. Senior American officials have warned that the U.S. could walk away from the conflict if peace efforts make no progress. Putin shows no signs of making concessions The diplomatic atmosphere has become more heated as Trump's deadline approaches. Putin announced last Friday that Russia's new hypersonic missile, the Oreshnik, has entered service. The Russian leader has hailed its capabilities, saying its multiple warheads that plunge to a target at speeds of up to Mach 10 cannot be intercepted. He claimed that they are so powerful that the use of several of them in one conventional strike could be as devastating as a nuclear attack. Separately, one of Putin's top lieutenants warned that the Ukraine war could nudge Russia and the U.S. into armed conflict. Trump responded to what he called the 'highly provocative statements' by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev by ordering the repositioning of two U.S. nuclear submarines. Putin has repeated the same message throughout the war: He will only accept a settlement on his terms and will keep fighting until they're met. The war is killing thousands of troops and civilians Russia's relentless pounding of urban areas behind the front line have killed more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, according to the United Nations. It has pushed on with that tactic despite Trump's public calls for it to stop over the past three months. On the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, Russia's bigger army has made slow and costly progress. It is carrying out a sustained operation to take the eastern city of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub whose fall could open the way for a deeper drive into Ukraine. Ukraine has developed technology that has allowed it to launch long-range drone attacks deep inside Russia. In its latest strike it hit an oil depot near Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, starting a major fire.
CNBC
23 minutes ago
- CNBC
Why changing monetary and immigration policies may be edging U.S. closer to a recession: Carmen Reinhart
"Recession risks are higher than average," Carmen Reinhart, Harvard professor and former chief economist at The World Bank, said in a recent episode of CNBC's "The Bottom Line." Reinhart pointed out that the U.S. is now in an era of more volatile markets, financial instability and higher interest rates, brought on primarily, she said, by unpredictable market frameworks. "We have policy uncertainty from all angles, whether it's tariffs, ... there's concerns about President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve," said Reinhart. "Then there's a lot of geopolitical uncertainty as well." Reinhart warned that with President Trump's immigration policies and attempts to bring manufacturing back to the States, among other trends, the current U.S. shift away from globalization may further slow population growth in the country, and in turn economic growth, potentially leading to a recession. "We shouldn't be overly confident that a lot of the manufacturing that left will ever return," Reinhart said. "More globalization, more global cooperation is certainly preferred for everyone than variations of a Cold War and a fragmented system." All Americans will be affected by these changes, noted Reinhart. To protect their bottom lines in the meantime, she advised investors and workers alike to emphasize hedging across operations and embrace medium-term to longer-term investment plans. Watch the video to find out more about the fiscal and geopolitical policies currently putting the U.S. economy at risk, why people should care about the rising national debt, and what might be next for the country's financial future.
