Adapt or Die: Redefining Wargaming for the Age of Algorithmic Warfare

Epoch Times

13-05-2025

Commentary
'Adapt or die.' This isn't just a cliché; it's a fundamental truth of human survival. Security—the psychological need for stability and protection—is second only to food and water in Maslow's hierarchy. War directly threatens this security, so understanding war is essential for preserving peace.
One of the
The Problem With Today's Wargaming
Wargaming is indispensable, but
This traditional model assumes that human decisions lie at the heart of conflict. That remains true. But the battlefield is rapidly changing—and the human element is no longer acting alone. As militaries increasingly rely on uncrewed systems, autonomous platforms, and AI-driven operations, our method of simulating war must evolve accordingly.
To prepare for war in 2030,
The Rise of Algorithmic Warfare
Consider this: some
In such a world, the idea of a wargame that exclusively simulates human decision-making is dangerously incomplete. Swarms of autonomous drones executing algorithm-driven tactics change not only the character of war but also the speed, scale, and unpredictability of combat. Abstracting these developments away misses the point entirely. A game
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Critically, decision-making itself is changing. While senior leaders continue to anchor their intuition in past experiences, research shows that overconfidence increases in situations involving more chance and ambiguity. Gut instinct, seasoned though it may be, will not suffice when confronted with system-level interactions between thousands of autonomous platforms and sensors.
Technology as a Catalyst, Not a Crutch
The tools to modernize wargaming already exist. Digital environments can now simulate everything from force placement to logistics flows to legal compliance, with users interacting via natural language, voice, or keyboard. This technological advancement offers a beacon of hope for the future of wargaming, allowing commanders to stress-test strategies in real time and track every decision across a replicable digital thread.
This is not science fiction. It is an underused science fact.
Yet many in the defense establishment cling to narrow definitions of wargaming. A leading DoD-affiliated practitioner recently
That's a dangerous mindset. Strategy may be rooted in ideas, but execution lives in facts. As Churchill famously
Toward a New Definition of Wargaming
Commanders' expectations have evolved, even if the tools haven't. In 1945, General Eisenhower might have asked his staff for a logistics overlay of the European theater—delivered with pen, paper, and pins. In 2025, General Cavoli might make the same request—but with the expectation of a digital interface offering dynamic updates, AI-enhanced forecasting, and real-time operational feedback.
Unfortunately, EUCOM and NATO commanders still rely too heavily on analog tools. What
This calls for a redefinition of wargaming.
A New Definition
Wargaming must be understood not as a parlor game of human strategy but as a rigorous, replicable method of exploring conflict at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This includes human decisions and system-level interactions conducted in a synthetic digital environment.
A proposed new definition: 'Wargames represent human actions and system-level interactions of conflict or competition in a synthetic environment from the strategic to the tactical level.'
This definition bridges the gap between cognition and computation, people and platforms, gut instinct and algorithmic feedback. It accounts for the growing role of autonomy and artificial intelligence without excluding the indispensable human element.
The Stakes
Wargames must evolve not only because they
can
but because they
must
. Definitions matter. The current models fall short of providing leaders
Failure to modernize wargaming risks misinforming critical decisions, wasting resources, and, worst of all, misjudging the very nature of the next fight. The stakes are high, and the battlefield of 2030 will not wait for the analog mind to catch up.
To prepare, we must simulate what war has been and what war is becoming.
From
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.