Forget Indus waters, Pakistan Army and govt have huge canal crisis at home

India Today

29-04-2025

The Indus and its waters have been making headlines after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a move that rattled Pakistan, which relies on the river basin to irrigate 80% of its farmland and support 90% of its food production. But, it's not the river Indus or India's actions that's causing Pakistan its latest headache. The crisis is homegrown. A controversial army-backed canal project, which would tap into the Indus River System, has resulted in massive protests across Sindh, crippling vehicular movement to Punjab. Even though PM Shahbaz Sharif's government has shelved the canal project, the blockade has continued for 12 days now. It looks far from over, and Islamabad's troubles are only piling up. The economic toll is huge too.advertisementAttempts to disperse the protesters have failed, and the blockades continue to choke the flow of goods to and from Karachi Port. Nearly a lakh truck drivers and helpers remain stranded and starved, with no end to the stalemate in sight, according to a report in the Dawn.Sindh is one of the four Pakistani provinces. And the protests against the army-backed project come at a time when the military has become increasingly unpopular and is fighting rebels and insurgents in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, respectively.
"A historic mobilisation is taking place in Sindh against the six-canal project. People from all walks of life are participating in a strike to save the river Indus. Policy of 'hard state' is leading to more resentment across the country. Time to submit to the will of the people," historian-politician Ammar Ali Jan posted on X.advertisementIndia put on hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the dastardly Pahalgam terror attacks that killed 26 people, including 25 tourists. India has blamed Pakistan and its supported terrorists for the massacre in which victims were singled out on the basis of their faith.PEOPLE OF SINDH PROTEST AGAINST INDUS CANALS IN PAKISTANFor the last two weeks, Pakistan's southern province of Sindh has been gripped by widespread protests by some parties, lawyers and civil society groups against the army-backed proposal of five new canals on the Indus, and one on Sutlej.It was claimed that the project, part of the $3.3-billion Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI), would irrigate 4.8 million acres of barren land across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. That's roughly eight times the size of Goa.In 2023, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and army chief General Asim Munir launched the six-canals project under the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI).Said to be managed by an army-owned private firm, the GPI was touted as a project that would breathe new life into Pakistan's faltering agriculture by bringing in advanced technologies and developing irrigation networks.Yes, the Pakistan Army, like running the country, is also involved in real estate, hospitality, manufacturing, airlines, food and consumer goods, logistics, banking and insurance.advertisementHowever, the project resulted in a massive outrage in Sindh, a lower riparian province heavily dependent on the Indus River. Fears of water diversion to southern Punjab's Cholistan region (part of the greater Thar) ignited mass protests. Sindh, which already receives 20% less water than its allocated share, experts say would face environmental risks. Reduced fresh water flow could cripple Sindh's agriculture by increasing soil salinity, and hasten seawater intrusion into the Indus Delta.Protests erupted across the province after the project was inaugurated in February 2025 by the Chief Minister of Pakistan's Punjab, Maryam Nawaz, and General Munir.AGE-OLD PUNJAB-SINDH RIVALRY FUELLING PROTESTS TOOThen there was the age-old Punjab-Sindh rivalry at play too.The Sindh-based Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), part of Sharif's ruling coalition Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari earlier this month, threatened to withdraw support from the government."The people of Sindh have rejected the canal projects, yet those in Islamabad remain blind and deaf to our voices," PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was quoted as saying by the Karachi-based The Express Tribune on April 18.The Sindh Assembly unanimously passed a resolution demanding a halt to the canal plans. Sit-in protests and rallies spread from Karachi to Sukkur (in northern Sindh).advertisementINDUS CANALS PROTESTS BRING PAKISTAN TO GRINDING HALTFollowing the massive pushback, the $3.3-billion project, touted by the army as a solution to Pakistan's food security crisis, was suspended last week.On April 24, a day after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, and PM Sharif announced a halt to the canal construction until a consensus could be reached at the Council of Common Interests meeting set for May 2.Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari played the India card, saying, "India's announcement on the Indus Waters Treaty was not illegal, but against humanity... As long as the PPP exists, not a single drop of Sindh's water will be given away".Bilawal was trying to use the India card and the move to the IWT to sell the six-canal project.However, the ploy of "consensus" and the India card failed to work for Islamabad's army-backed regime. But the protests across Sindh grew more intense and widespread. Protesters refused to relent, citing a lack of trust in verbal assurances. They demanded a formal notification of the cancellation.The protesters remained seated on major highways across Sindh on Sunday. It stranded thousands of trucks and brought the country's supply chain to a grinding halt. Efforts to disperse the protesters proved ineffective, reported Dawn.advertisementManufacturers in Pakistan have been forced to halt production due to a shortage of raw materials; officials at Karachi Port warned of severe congestion. Export cargo could not arrive at the port, and imported goods have been piling up, as they couldn't be transported out of the port, added the report.Nisar Jafry of the All Pakistan Goods Transporters Association told Dawn, that the movement of around 30,000 trucks and oil tankers had been impeded and around 90,000 to 100,000 drivers and their helpers were stranded for over 10 days, facing severe shortages of food and water.Transporters, according to the report, also alleged that over 100 sacrificial animals, part of their cargo, had already died.By Sunday, sit-ins across Sindh had entered their 10th day, halting all vehicular movement between Punjab and Sindh, reported Geo News.The highway blockade is costing traders $2 million in daily delay charges, President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Atif Ikram Sheikh, was quoted as saying by the Riyadh-based Arab News.For now, the government and protesters remain at an impasse.Despite incurring massive losses and prolonged protests, why are the demonstrators not relenting?advertisementWHY SINDH HAS RISEN UP IN PROTEST AGAINST SHARIF GOVT, PAK ARMYThe answer lies in Shahbaz Sharif's verbal assurance, Sindh's deep mistrust of the Punjabi-dominated leadership of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and the most pressing water crisis that the province has been facing.Most of Sindh is arid as it lies in the rain shadow of the Western Himalayas and receives less than 200 mm of annual rainfall, which makes it one of the driest regions in South Asia. Sindh Province, which contributes 23% to Pakistan's agricultural GDP, relies on the Indus River and its canal network for over 77% of its irrigation needs, according to the World Bank Group document from 2022.However, Sindh receives 20% less water than its allocated share under the 1991 Indus Water Accord, noted a research paper by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Now with the Rabi season nearing its end, Sindh's water shortage for winter crops had already deepened to 45%. Sindh reported an overall 50% water shortfall, with Guddu Barrage facing a 10.3% deficit and Sukkur Barrage experiencing a steep 66.3% shortage, according to a Dawn report from March.The 1991 Indus Water Accord was a pact between the provinces of Pakistan for the equitable distribution of the Indus River System's water.Now already parched, Sindh fears that diverting water from the Indus and its tributaries through the proposed canals could further aggravate its water crisis.Sindh's deep-seated mistrust of the Punjabi-dominated leadership in Islamabad and Rawalpindi is now unfolding through the controversy over the six-canal projects.The Punjab vs Sindh equation is also at play here in the controversy over the six Indus canal projects."Journalists and columnists in Pakistan who promote the state's narrative on the Indus Water Treaty [1991 Accord] question Sindh's resistance to the construction of six canals. But it was Punjab that sold three rivers without consulting Sindh and since then, Punjab has been stealing Sindh's share of water," Karachi-based journalist Veengas posted on X.Critics of the proposed canals warn that diverting water from the Indus would carry devastating environmental and human costs, endangering local ecosystems, wildlife, and local communities."This is not a people-centred initiative. It's a for-profit scheme for cash crop irrigation...," environmental activist Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Jr told Dawn, adding that less water in the Indus River would stop fresh water from reaching the Arabian Sea, and break the hydrological cycle.Experts fear that the disruption would lead to increased seawater intrusion into the Indus Delta, turning fertile land saline and unfit for agriculture. It would also threaten aquatic life and collapse the livelihoods of fishing and farming communities in lower Sindh.Now, despite suspending the $3.3-billion canal project and calling for "consensus", the Pakistani government may have delayed the incoming challenge for a bit. But by overlooking the concerns of Sindh it has definitely fanned the fire of distrust.For now, as Pakistan is engaged in the Indus water tussle with India, it seems to be drowning in its own canal chaos. All eyes are on the May 2 Council of Common Interests meeting now.