Recognizing a state, and making a point

Winnipeg Free Press

a day ago

Opinion
Canada will recognize a state that does not exist. A state that may never exist. A state that has yet to meet the internationally accepted attributes of statehood: a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government, and exercised sovereignty.
This is Palestine.
Palestine is not yet a reality, but Canada is recognizing another reality. The reality of war, hunger, hardship, and politics. Almost two years after the horrific Hamas massacre of Israelis and others on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel is locked into a grinding war of lethal attrition against Hamas in Gaza. No immediate ceasefire prospects and no clear end game by any of the protagonists except the destruction of the other exists.
ABDEL KAREEM HANA / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FILES
A Palestinian boy carrying a plastic jerry can of water walks past buildings destroyed during Israeli air and ground operations in Gaza City on July 25.
The most volatile neighbourhood in the world has seen more than 50 wars, insurgencies, coups, and rebellions of one sort or another since the end of the Second World War. The pattern is violently familiar and, therefore, depressingly inuring to most of us. Many expected Gaza to follow this same pattern. Israel's right to exist in peace and the monstrous scale of the Hamas terrorism gave it the legal and moral agency to strike back, hard. Retaliation by Israel would be harsh but somehow acceptable.
Few shed any tears when key Hamas leaders were hunted down and eliminated. The tears came afterwards.
The relentlessly dangerous and difficult task of eradicating a deeply embedded terrorist network in dense urban areas has meant more civilian casualties and visible suffering than much of the international community could stomach. With no end in sight.
This is what prompted Prime Minister Mark Carney's momentous decision to recognize the State of Palestine during the next United Nations General Assembly this fall. 'The deepening suffering of civilians leaves no room for delay in co-ordinated international action to support peace, security, and the dignity of all human life', he said in a formal statement this week.
There is something else, though. Canada has concluded that the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu will never accept a two-state solution of a fully sovereign Palestine living side by side with Israel. This has been the bedrock foreign policy principle of Canada — and many other countries — for peace in the Middle East.
Unwilling to dismiss this principled approach, the Canadian prime minister has decided to dismiss the Israeli prime minster's approach to the principle. 'Regrettably, this approach is no longer tenable', Carney said. 'Prospects for a two-state solution have been steadily and gravely eroded' he went on, listing four reasons, three of which identify Israeli actions, making clear where most of the blame resides.
With zero influence over how Israel is prosecuting the war, Canada is joining other countries to influence what happens after the war. In that sense, Canada is remaining consistent with the United States. Not the U.S. of President Donald Trump but the U.S. of former president Joe Biden.
One month into the war, in November 2023, the U.S. set out a 'day after the war' declaration for Gaza and Israel. Meant to prevent a wider conflict from erupting, that declaration stated: 'The United States believes key elements should include no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Not now. Not after the war. No use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism or other violent attacks. No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends. No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory of Gaza.'
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This may yet come to pass, but it appears very far off right now. Politicians though live in the here and now. They see hunger lines in Gaza and become distressed. They read motions to annex the West Bank from the Israeli Knesset or statements by the Israeli prime minister to never agree to a fully fledged Palestinian state and become disturbed. They see no end in sight and are frustrated.
All this is leaving Israel more politically isolated today than it was before Oct. 7. But it is also more militarily powerful, capable, and dominant in the region than ever before. And it has a fast friend in Donald Trump creating a superpower 'alliance of two' giving it more licence to act as it sees fit in Gaza and the region. It is doing so, and countries have taken notice.
Short of declaring war, recognizing a governing entity, no matter how tenuous, as a sovereign state is as declaratory you can get in international relations. Canada, like France and Great Britain, is utilizing the entirely precedented and legal discretion it has under international law to unilaterally recognize another state. But doing so now, absent a negotiated peace settlement to create such a state, is not so much a diplomatic gesture of support for Palestinians, but a diplomatic rejection of Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank.
For Canada, the momentous part is not breaking with international law by declaring its recognition of Palestine as a state but breaking with its own international tradition of allying with the U.S. on key international issues. Indeed, this decision signals a widening chasm with America. Trump wants 'to break us, so that America can own us', said Carney on election night. What he didn't say is that maybe Canada has to break with America first.
David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.