Ukraine war briefing: ‘Security guarantees' on offer but Russia wants some too
Trump's Ukraine envoy, the real estate developer Steve Witkoff, said Vladimir Putin had agreed that the US and European allies could offer Ukraine a Nato-style, 'Article 5-like' security guarantee as part of an eventual deal to end the war. It appeared to be a major shift for Putin, but Witkoff has previously got it wrong when announcing what has been agreed in talks with the Russians – he does not speak Russian and has walked into meetings with Vladimir Putin without a translator of his own.
Russia agrees that any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv but Moscow also needs credible security assurances, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's envoy to international organisations in Vienna, said early on Monday. 'Many leaders of EU states emphasise that a future peace agreement should provide reliable security assurances or guarantees for Ukraine,' Ulyanov said. 'Russia agrees with that. But it has equal right to expect that Moscow will also get efficient security guarantees.' Russia has not been invaded by another country since the end of the second world war – apart from the humiliating Ukrainian counter-invasion of Kursk – while having repeatedly invaded other countries and illegally annexed their territory.
European heavyweight leaders will join Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House meeting with Trump on Monday, writes Luke Harding, in an extraordinary joint effort to push back on a US-backed plan that would allow Russia to take further Ukrainian territory. They are expected to argue against a land swap plan that rewards Russian aggression, and to seek further clarity on what security guarantees the US is willing to offer in the event of a settlement. The delegation includes the French president, Emmanuel Macron; Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz; Italy's PM, Giorgia Meloni; Keir Starmer, the British PM; Nato's secretary general, Mark Rutte; the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen; and the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb.
In a CBS interview after the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska, Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, gave short shrift to the Russian ruler's 'long historical complaint' that 'root causes' of the Ukraine war must be addressed as part of a peace deal. 'We're not going to focus on all of that stuff. We're going to focus on this: are they going to stop fighting or not? And what it's going to take to stop the fighting.'
Rubio continued: 'If we're being honest and serious here, both sides are going to have to give, and both sides should expect to get something from this. And that's a very difficult thing to do … Ukraine obviously feels, you know, harmed, and rightfully so, because they were invaded. And the Russian side, because they feel like they got momentum in the battlefield, and frankly, don't care, don't seem to care very much about how many Russian soldiers die in this endeavour.'
Dan Sabbagh writes that Rubio gave the inbound European delegation some hope, insisting to NBC that a ceasefire is 'not off the table' – despite Putin insisting it can only come after a complete peace deal – and confirming that the US is interested in contributing to western security guarantees to Ukraine. 'It's one of their fundamental demands is that if this war were to end, they have to make sure this never happens again.' The US secretary of state is a traditional Republican whose instincts towards Russia are hawkish, although he has a record of going with the flow when it comes to the president's impulses.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continued over Sunday night. A missile strike on Kharkiv city injured 11 people, said Kharkiv's mayor. A guided bomb strike on a Sumy oblast community left a woman injured, said the head of the regional military administration, while civilian facilities were damaged in a series of attacks.
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Spectator
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Starmer's coalition of the willing has been saved from itself
It is commonplace to accuse politicians of being out of touch. There is often some truth in the charge, and our elected representatives take it on the chin. One of the least likely politicians to face this charge has always been John Healey: the defence secretary has been one of the most sensible and pragmatic ministers in Sir Keir Starmer's cabinet – not a high bar, admittedly. And yet there are signs that he has succumbed to the Ministry of Defence's corrosive habit of dealing with the world as it wants it to be, not as it is. We all watched the news from Friday's summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage. However you try to frame the encounter, it was at best a huge disappointment for the US president. His Russian counterpart conceded nothing and his armed forces continue to pound Ukraine's cities. Meanwhile, his pre-conditions for any kind of negotiations remain the maximal aims with which he began the war: Ukraine must cede territory to Russia, rule out membership of Nato indefinitely and, in practice, allow the Kremlin a veto over its foreign policy. And yet, John Healey can't be accused of being a pessimist. 'In the circumstances of a ceasefire we're ready to put UK boots on the ground in Ukraine,' he told the BBC on Friday, shortly before the talks began. 'They are ready to go, they're ready to act from day one. The military plans are complete.' This is, of course, the 'coalition of the willing' which Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have worked so hard to assemble. But there is one problem: it may indeed be 'ready to go' – although this is doubtful – but there is no ceasefire nor any prospect of a ceasefire, and Russia has violated previous pauses in the fighting with impunity. Secretary of state Marco Rubio was downbeat in the wake of the summit. 'There remain some big areas of disagreement,' he admitted to ABC's This Week. 'We're not at the precipice of an agreement, we're not at the edge of one.' President Trump, for whom consistency is something that applies to other people, seems to have decided a ceasefire is no longer important, despite having previously stressed what a priority it was. He casually edited reality on his Truth Social platform in his characteristic and odd way: It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often times do not hold up. Where does this leave the coalition of the willing? Starmer and Macron are now all dressed up with nowhere to go. They have made an enormous play of their genuinely tireless efforts in constructing the coalition, but its only purpose is to monitor, police or help implement a ceasefire in Ukraine. It is now plain to any rational observer that there will be no ceasefire in the foreseeable future, because it is not an approach which suits Putin and he now knows that Trump has little intention of putting pressure on him to bring it about. That may prove good fortune in a heavy disguise for Starmer because there is another consideration. Our armed forces are in no position to deploy significant numbers of troops in a safe and sustainable way to Ukraine. The size of the coalition's anticipated deployment is unknown but has been a moving target: in February, President Zelenskyy talked about needing a force of between 100,000 and 150,000. At the time, the Ministry of Defence carelessly allowed the idea to circulate that the UK might contribute 20,000 troops. In March, Starmer talked about 30,000 troops. The following month, the chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, consulted with his military colleagues in the coalition of the willing about generating a force of 64,000, and was told that not only was that utterly unrealistic, but that less than half that number, even 25,000, would be extremely challenging. Once again, UK ministers are trumpeting an idea that by definition cannot come to fruition. Without a ceasefire, putting boots on the ground in Ukraine is impossible; even if there were a ceasefire, the UK does not have the resources, especially in terms of artillery and logistics, to assemble anything more than a battlegroup of maybe 1,000 soldiers. Even our current commitments are stretching us. For context, Russia is estimated to have 600,000 soldiers in and around Ukraine. John Healey seems to have retreated into a comforting game of 'what if?', supposing that every eventuality he wants has come to pass and is then telling the media what the UK would do. Increasingly, though, he is talking not about potential outcomes but doors which have already closed. What if Russia agreed to a ceasefire, what if Putin moderated his demands, what if Russia and Ukraine could find an acceptable long-term settlement? As Jake says in the closing pages of Hemingway's The Sun Also Rises, 'Isn't it pretty to think so?'
The Guardian
29 minutes ago
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Monday briefing: What's at stake for Ukrainians as Trump and Putin talk of ceding land in return for peace
Good morning. On Friday, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine, but there was no deal reached and no big questions answered. Trump appeared deferential to the Russian leader and now backs plans to hand over Ukrainian territory as part of a peace deal. Today he will meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders. In discussions about what a peace settlement would look like, 'land swaps' were represented as simple transactions. The fate of people appeared to be a casual afterthought. Trump and Putin are eager to embrace the idea that territory can be bought and sold like real estate, but Guardian reporting exposes the devastating part of this war: human loss. Last month casualties hit a three-year high, with more Ukrainian civilians killed than in any month since May 2022. Our writers have been documenting the escalating human cost of this war – whole communities eradicated, schools shut, cottages silent and people in towns near fighting exhausted by sleepless nights. For today's newsletter, I spoke to our senior international correspondent Luke Harding, who has just returned from four weeks in Ukraine, about what morale is like in these once tranquil villages now on the frontlines – and whether the Alaska summit changes anything for Ukraine. That's after the headlines. Gaza | Palestinians were gripped by fear and anxiety on Sunday after the Israeli military said it was preparing for the forcible displacement of a million people from Gaza City. Meanwhile tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv to call for an end to the war in Gaza. Scotland | The UK's first transgender judge has launched a case against the UK in the European court of human rights challenging the process that led to the supreme court's ruling on biological sex. Business | The bosses of Britain's largest listed companies took home record high pay packets for the third successive year, according to a report. Analysis found that the record set in the last financial year means the average FTSE 100 chief executive is now paid 122 times the salary of the average full-time UK worker. US news | Three people were killed and eight others wounded when multiple gunmen opened fire inside a crowded Brooklyn hookah lounge and restaurant early on Sunday morning, according to authorities. Weather | Hurricane Erin was downgraded to category 3 early on Sunday as its outer bands continued to lash the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with heavy rains and tropical storm force winds. Luke Harding has been reporting from the Dnipropetrovsk region, which the Russians have penetrated for the first time in the last few weeks. An evacuation charity has been rescuing elderly and sick people from frontline villages swallowed up by fighting – they are usually the last to leave. 'It's about people, it's about homes, livelihoods, families, husbands, wives, children, grandparents, dogs, cats, chickens, vegetable gardens, and so on – this is what's being lost,' says Luke. 'Entire communities are being eradicated.' This monumental loss is encapsulated by the story of Valentyn Velykyi, a 70-year-old man who lived in the small agricultural village of Maliyivka in central-eastern Ukraine. He knew everyone in his village. Once Russian troops arrived, the village's 300-odd residents fled, except Velykyi – until a missile destroyed his house and he no longer had a home to go to. People in villages all over Ukraine have similar stories. 'There's something biblical about it,' says Luke. 'You go to these places and you see incongruously blooming vigorous gardens with flowers and marrows and apple trees where apples are falling and lying on the wayside, next to benches where people used to sit and gossip with their neighbours.' Primary schools are closed, shops are shut up, and people have fled. 'It's the extermination of a way of life – that's what it is. It's not real estate. It's human estate.' Luke says Putin is indifferent to what happens in these areas – his priority is for them to be part of Russia. For many civilians in areas under occupation by Russia, ceding control in a peace deal would mean saying goodbye to their homes for ever. As a foreign correspondent, Luke would go to the frontline and then return to Kyiv to write his reports, but now Kyiv is being targeted by Russian drones almost every night. 'It's really hard to sleep, and when you go out for your coffee in the morning, everybody looks exhausted.' What do ordinary Ukrainians think about Russia? A poll from 2014 found that 26% of Ukrainians living in the east of the country thought Russia and Ukraine should unite as a single state. But Luke says that now – apart from a very few older people – everybody supports Ukraine and hates Russia. Since the war, Ukraine has also become more European (last month protests erupted against weakening the powers of anti-corruption agencies). 'The great irony of this war is that Putin wants to de-Ukrainise Ukraine – he wants to make it disappear, roll it back into Russia.' But he's done the opposite, says Luke, who has been travelling to Ukraine since 2007. 'Ukraine has become more Ukrainian since I've been going there.' Shaun Walker, meanwhile, has been reporting from the city of Zaporizhzhia, an industrial hub in south-east Ukraine that has been under near-constant attack from missiles and drones. Plenty of people here and in other Ukrainian towns close to the frontline are ready for Kyiv to sign a peace deal – even an imperfect one – if it means the attacks will stop. But many others disagree, because they know first-hand what it means to give Russia control over Ukrainian territory: arrests, disappearances and the erasure of anything Ukrainian. What does the future hold for Ukrainians? Today European leaders will join Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the White House for a meeting with Donald Trump in an effort to push back on a US-endorsed 'peace plan'. Ukrainians understand Russia very well. They speak both languages, and they don't trust Putin, who has 'violated every previous agreement he's signed', says Luke. Giving over land, they believe, would simply make it easier for him to advance further. 'People understand that a ceasefire would last five minutes, five days, maybe a maximum of five months, and then Putin would continue because his goal is unchanged – which is to destroy Ukraine entirely and turn it into Russia, which he considers it to be,' says Luke. 'And practically the only person on the planet who doesn't seem to understand this is Donald Trump.' The Russian strategy is to be deliberately chaotic – targeting different areas all across the country. Fighting has increased on all fronts, with waves of kamikaze drones and ballistic missiles. 'It looks pretty bleak insofar as the Russians will continue to push forward. They have numerical advantages in terms of troops, machinery, fibre-optic drones,' he says. 'I just don't see that ending, because the Russians think they're winning … There's no incentive for the Russians to stop, and the Americans are not making the Russians stop. 'Putin's lobbying campaign on Trump behind the scenes has been extremely effective. Trump has basically shifted position in a way that Ukraine and Europe hoped he wouldn't. This has happened in two important ways: one, he now says there needs to be a comprehensive peace deal and then a ceasefire [which is the Russian position]; and two, sources suggest he has embraced the Russian land swap plan, which is that Russia gets full control of Donetsk and Luhansk as a condition for ending the war. 'What we'll see over the next few weeks is pressure ratcheted up on Ukraine to go along with this 'ceasefire plan' without very many meaningful guarantees from America,' says Luke. 'It's going to be a stormy and difficult time ahead. And what is abundantly clear – post Alaska – is that this war will continue.' What about the fate of Ukrainians elsewhere? There are nearly seven million Ukrainian refugees globally, with more than 200,000 in the UK. Generally, refugees have been treated well – support for Ukraine is not a party-political issue in the UK. But there have been issues with continued housing – for example, last weekend a Ukrainian mum with two children told Luke she was being kicked out of her council flat. 'Many people opened their homes to Ukrainian refugees three and a half years ago, and now many have had to move on,' he says. Some have gone back to Ukraine. A billion-pound budget was awarded to councils across England to help Ukrainian refugees find accommodation. Yet £327m has remained unused, despite thousands of Ukrainian refugees being homeless. 'It's fine to say, 'Oh, we're saving it for a rainy day,' but people are struggling now,' says reporter Diane Taylor, who worked on the investigation, published this morning. While organisations such as the Ukrainian Institute London have offered free language classes, learning English remains a barrier for many refugees seeking accommodation, especially when trying to access private rented housing. Diane stressed how 'if you can speak the language, it makes life easier, even for something as unimportant as a holiday'. Experts, meanwhile, say council support 'is often a postcode lottery'. Councils have a great deal of discretion over the funds, and while many have received assistance, more and more are struggling. The problem for Ukraine is that the longer the war goes on, the less likely people are to return. 'Mostly we're talking about women and kids,' says Luke. 'The ones in the UK are in British schools, they've made friends – they're integrating. The longer the war continues, the greater the likelihood they become British.' Ukrainians are weary but defiant. 'They want the fighting to stop, they want the bombs to stop falling. But they don't want to hand over their homes, communities, jobs, the places where they fell in love, to the Russian enemy.' 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Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
