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New Straits Times
26 minutes ago
- New Straits Times
Crude oil market bets Trump's India threats are hollow
THE crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the United State s' threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen. President Donald Trump cited India's imports of Russian crude when imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India on Aug 6, which is due to take effect on Aug 28. If the new tariff rate does come into place, it will take the rate for some Indian goods to as much as 50 per cent, a level high enough to effectively end US imports from India, which totalled nearly US$87 billion in 2024. As with everything related to Trump, it pays to be cautious given his track record of backflips and pivots. It's also not exactly clear what Trump is ultimately seeking, although it does seem that in the short term he wants to increase his leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their planned meeting in Alaska this week, and he's using India to achieve this. Whether Trump follows through on his additional tariffs on India remains uncertain, although the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine seem remote, which means the best path for India to avoid the tariffs would be to acquiesce and stop buying Russian oil. But this is an outcome that simply isn't being reflected in current crude oil prices. Global benchmark Brent futures have weakened since Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on India, dropping as low as US$65.81 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, the lowest level in two months. This is a price that entirely discounts any threat to global supplies, and assumes that India will either continue buying Russian crude at current volumes, or be able to easily source suitable replacements without tightening the global market. Are these reasonable assumptions? The track record of the crude oil market is somewhat remarkable in that it quickly adapts to new geopolitical realities and any price spikes tend to be shortlived. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent crude prices hurtling towards US$150 a barrel as European and other Western countries pulled back from buying Russian crude. But within four months, the price was back below where it was before Moscow's attack on its neighbour as the market simply rerouted the now discounted Russian oil to China and India. In other words, the flow of oil around the globe was shifted, but the volumes available for importers remained much the same. But what Trump is proposing now is somewhat different. It appears he wants to cut Russian barrels out of the market in order to put financial pressure on Moscow to cut a deal over Ukraine. There are effectively only two major buyers for Russian crude, India and China. China, the world's biggest crude importer, has more leverage with Trump given US and Western reliance on its refined critical and other minerals, and therefore is less able to be coerced into ending its imports of Russian oil. India is in a less strong position, especially private refiners like Reliance Industries, which will want to keep business relationships and access to Western economies. India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. About 90 per cent of its Russian imports came from Russia's European ports, mainly Urals grade. There are some Middle Eastern grades of similar quality, such as Saudi Arabia's Arab Light and Iraq's Basrah Light, but it would likely boost prices if India were to seek more of these crudes. If Chinese refiners were able to take the bulk of Russian crude given up by India, it may allow for a reshuffling of flows, but that would not appear to be what Trump wants. Trump and his advisers may believe there is enough spare crude production capacity in the US and elsewhere to handle the loss of up to two million bpd of Russian supplies. But testing that theory may well lead to higher prices, especially for certain types of medium crudes which would be in short supply. For now, the crude oil market is assuming that the Trump/India/Russia situation will end as another TACO, the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out. The writer is from Reuters
The Hill
27 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump's economic war on India is a gift to China
President Trump's decision to slap secondary sanctions on India over its imports of Russian oil, while also unleashing a tariff barrage on Indian exports, is more than a trade dispute. It is a self-inflicted wound to America's most vital strategic partnership in Asia, and it comes at a time when China is flexing its military muscle throughout the region. Washington has long courted India as a bulwark against an expansionist China and as a critical pillar of its ' free and open Indo-Pacific ' strategy. Yet Trump's punitive steps against India are eroding the very trust on which strategic alignment rests — to Beijing's delight. The mutual trust painstakingly built over years underpins bilateral cooperation. Once lost, it will be hard to rebuild. Even if the administration eventually reaches a trade deal with India, it may not be able to repair the damage. Targeting India over Russian oil purchases smacks of selective enforcement. The European Union's large imports of Russian energy products, especially liquefied natural gas, have been left untouched. Such European imports not only contribute more to Russia's coffers than India's purchases, but Europe spends more on Russian energy than on assisting Ukraine. Trump has also spared the world's largest buyer of Russian oil and gas: China. But India, the very country Washington has spent years courting as an Asian counterweight, has become the first victim of his secondary sanctions. This suggests Trump's tactics are less about punishing Moscow than about pressuring New Delhi. Russian oil is a pretext to strong-arm India into accepting a Trump-dictated trade agreement, much as he foisted a largely one-sided deal on the European Union. That his tariffs on India have little to do with Russian oil is evident from one telling fact: Indian exports to the U.S. of refined fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — increasingly made from Russian crude — remain exempt from his tariffs. Such is the Trumpian logic. He has hit Indian non-energy exports with steep tariffs, but spared booming exports of refined fuels made largely from Russian crude. Trump seems to have no problem with Russian oil — as long as it is refined in India and then pumped into American planes, trucks and cars. Furthermore, given continued U.S. imports of Russian enriched uranium, fertilizers and chemicals, Trump does not seem troubled that his own administration is helping fund Russia's war in Ukraine while still locked in a proxy war with Moscow. In truth, Trump is using New Delhi's Russian oil purchases as a crude bargaining tactic to secure a bilateral trade deal on his terms. India illustrates how the Trump administration has weaponized tariffs not merely to extract trade concessions but also to bind other countries more closely to American strategic and security interests. In seeking to bend India to its will, it has targeted that country's traditionally independent approach to global affairs, including neutrality on conflicts. Indian exports to the U.S. now face a steep 50 percent tariff, signaling the end of Trump's bromance with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His moves against strategic-partner India are harsher than against China. This marks a dramatic U-turn from his first term, when bilateral relations thrived to the extent that Trump declared at a huge February 2020 rally in Modi's home state of Gujarat, 'America loves India, America respects India, and America will always be faithful and loyal friends to the Indian people.' In Trump's second term, Modi was among the first world leaders to visit the White House, agreeing to fast-track trade negotiations. In July, the Indians believed they had reached an interim deal, awaiting only Trump's approval. But in characteristic fashion, Trump abruptly rejected the accord and embarked on punishing India. New Delhi has publicly criticized the Trump administration's double standards. But it is more concerned about a deeper question: If Washington can so easily turn its coercive tools on a supposed ally, what is to stop it from doing so again? U.S.-India relations have probably plunged to their lowest point in the 21st century, thanks to Trump's economic war and his singling out of India for secondary sanctions. The fallout will extend beyond lost trade. India could respond by doubling down on strategic autonomy — hedging between the U.S., Russia and others — and diversifying its economic and security partnerships. Trump's gamble may wring out trade concessions in the short term, but it risks undermining the security architecture in the Indo-Pacific, where unity among key democracies is the only real check on China's expansionism. America is effectively handing China an opening to court a disillusioned India. New Delhi is already signaling that it has other geopolitical options. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India in the coming weeks. In less than three weeks, Modi is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which Putin will also attend. Moscow is pushing for a revived Russia-India-China grouping. A stable Indo-Pacific order demands more than joint military exercises and communiqués; it requires political will to accommodate each other's core interests. Punishing India in ways that ignore its legitimate security and energy needs sends the opposite message. Ironically, Trump's sanctions-and-tariffs blitz may have done India a favor by exposing the strategic reality of America's unreliability. By presenting the U.S. as a transactional power, Trump has signaled that Washington cannot be counted on to separate short-term commercial considerations from long-term strategic imperatives. Trump's economic coercion risks alienating a vast, still-growing market that U.S. firms see as central to their future growth. India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, and as many other economies stagnate and populations shrink, it stands out as a rising giant. Sacrificing a linchpin of Indo-Pacific stability for a fleeting win in a tariff war is not tough bargaining. It is strategic recklessness — and a gift to China.
Mint
28 minutes ago
- Mint
Here's all you should know about the new Mercedes-AMG CLE 53 4Matic+ Coupe, priced at ₹1.35 lakh
Mercedes-Benz has expanded its AMG line-up in India with the introduction of the CLE 53 4Matic+ Coupe. Priced at ₹ 1.35 crore (ex-showroom), the two-door performance car is now available for bookings, with deliveries set to begin immediately. Although the engine in this coupe is not a V8, it still lets out throaty growls from the exhaust. It propels the AMG CLE 53 Coupe from 0 to 100 kmph in 4.2 seconds (claimed) and has a top speed electronically limited to 250 kmph, which can be raised to 270 kmph with an optional package. The coupe will directly rival the BMW M2 on Indian soil, although the latter can be acquired at a discount when compared to the former. Underneath, the AMG Ride Control suspension combines steel springs with adaptive damping, adjustable in Comfort, Sport, and Sport+ settings. Damping rates for rebound and compression are controlled independently, reacting quickly to road and driving conditions. Standard rear-axle steering allows the rear wheels to turn up to 2.5 degrees opposite to the front wheels at speeds under 100 kmph for tighter manoeuvres, or up to 0.7 degrees in the same direction above that speed to aid stability. Power comes from a 3.0-litre M 256M inline six-cylinder petrol engine equipped with twin turbocharging and an electric additional compressor. Modifications such as revised inlet and outlet channels, new piston rings, optimised injection, and a larger exhaust gas turbocharger have increased boost pressure to 1.5 bar. Output stands at 449 bhp with 560 Nm of torque, rising to 600 Nm for short bursts using overboost. A second-generation Integrated Starter Generator (ISG) is integrated into the gearbox bell housing. Operating as part of a 48-volt mild-hybrid system, it provides 23 bhp and 205 Nm while enabling functions such as regenerative braking, engine-off sailing, and near-instant restarts. The AMG Speedshift TCT 9G automatic transmission supports fast upshifts and multiple downshifts, with rev-matching on gear changes. It works with the fully variable AMG Performance 4Matic+ all-wheel-drive system, which can continuously adjust torque distribution between the front and rear axles. Official WLTP fuel consumption is between 9.3 and 9.7 litres per 100 km, which translates to 10.3 to 10.7 kmpl. Five AMG Dynamic Select drive modes are available: Slippery, Comfort, Sport, Sport+, and Individual. These change throttle response, shift patterns, steering weight, and suspension settings. Manual gear control is possible through steering-mounted paddles using the dedicated M button. The cabin features Artico leather and Microcut microfibre upholstery with AMG-specific graphics and contrast stitching. A 12.3-inch driver display offers multiple layouts, including the AMG Supersport mode, which highlights performance data such as lap times and G-forces. A portrait-style 11.9-inch central touchscreen runs the latest MBUX infotainment interface, controlled via touch, voice commands, or steering wheel buttons. Dynamic ambient lighting with 64 colour choices is standard.
