Only Federalism Can Save Syria—and Perhaps the Middle East
Despite his hollow promises, Ahmed al-Sharaa has failed miserably in protecting Syria's vulnerable minorities. His brief rule has not ushered in a new era of inclusion or reconciliation, but one of betrayal and brutality. Many minorities across Syria—from Christians to Alawites, Druze to Kurds—no longer see Sharaa as a protector but as a former ISIS affiliate in a business suit.
Since unilaterally appointing himself as Syria's interim president, hundreds from these communities have been killed. Nowhere is his failure more glaring than in Sweida, where government forces dispatched to quell violence between Sunni Bedouins and the Druze ended up siding with the Bedouins. Instead of restoring order, they executed Druze civilians at gunpoint, looted homes, and set them ablaze. These actions confirm what many Syrians have long feared: Sharaa has no intention to govern for all Syrians—only to consolidate power under the guise of security.
In this climate of deep mistrust and sectarian tension, the idea of a strong, centralized government led by one faction is no longer tenable. Syria needs a new path forward—one that gives every group a stake in the country's future while ensuring local governance, autonomy, and protection. That path is federalism.
Federalism is a system of government in which power is divided between a central authority and smaller political units—such as states, provinces, or cantons. Each unit maintains a degree of autonomy to govern its own affairs, particularly in areas like education, policing, and culture, while still being part of a unified national framework.
It is a model that has proven successful in multi-ethnic and multi-religious countries. Perhaps the best example is
Switzerland
. Despite its linguistic, cultural, and religious diversity, Switzerland has remained peaceful, democratic, and united—not in spite of its differences, but because it embraced them. The Swiss Confederation consists of 26 cantons, each with its own constitution, government, and even police force. Yet all are bound together under a federal government that handles foreign policy, national defense, and major economic policies. It is a country where French, German, Italian, and Romansh speakers coexist harmoniously—not because they were forced to live under a single ruler, but because they were empowered to manage their own affairs within a shared federal system.
Syria, like Switzerland, is a patchwork of identities, religions, and histories. Trying to force all Syrians into one mold, under one ruler or one ideology, has only led to tyranny and civil war. But imagine a Syria divided into six or seven cantons—each corresponding to the main communities: Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Druze, Christians, Kurds, and possibly others based on geography and population. Each canton would have the right to govern local affairs, protect its cultural heritage, manage its own security, and elect local officials. Meanwhile, a federal government in Damascus—or a new, neutral capital—would oversee defense, foreign relations, currency, and the rule of law across cantons.
Such a system would offer each group what they crave most:
dignity, safety, and a voice
. It would neutralize the fear of domination by any one group, reduce the risk of sectarian violence, and provide a framework for peaceful coexistence. It would also promote accountability and economic development at the local level, as communities would have more control over their resources and priorities.
The case for federalism doesn't stop at Syria. Other fragile states in the Middle East—
Lebanon
and
Iraq
in particular—are equally in need of a political rethink. In both countries, sectarianism has hollowed out the state, paralyzed reform, and fueled cycles of corruption and violence. In Lebanon, the confessional power-sharing system has become a recipe for gridlock, rewarding patronage rather than competence. In Iraq, the central government in Baghdad has often clashed with Kurdish aspirations and Sunni marginalization, leading to conflict and chaos. Federalism offers a chance to rebuild these nations—not by erasing their diversity, but by institutionalizing it. By giving each community the power to govern its own affairs while remaining part of a unified state, federalism can foster both
local autonomy
and
national stability
. It's not a magic solution, but it's far better than the broken systems currently in place.
The dream of a united, inclusive Syria cannot be built on the backs of minorities who feel hunted and betrayed. It cannot rest in the hands of leaders who claim power without legitimacy. It must be rooted in a political system that protects all Syrians equally and gives each group the autonomy to thrive.
Federalism is not a partition of Syria—it is the saving of it. It is not a threat to national unity—it is the only path to genuine unity through mutual respect and self-determination. Switzerland is living proof that federalism can transform a fragmented land into a functioning, peaceful, and prosperous country.
Syria deserves the same chance. And so do Lebanon and Iraq. The time for federalism is now.
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Ibrahim didn't respond to requests for comment. Members quickly decided against suing businessmen suspected of ill-gotten gains because 'we would be playing in their court,' the committee member said. Though some judges lost their jobs after Assad's fall, many remain on the bench, and the new government feared being outmaneuvered by businessmen adept at working the court system, or lacking evidence for convictions in complex financial cases, according to the member and an auditor familiar with the talks. They said outright seizures were rejected, to avoid scaring off potential investors. Syria has a history of nationalizations dating to its brief union with Egypt in 1958 and continuing during the civil war, when the Assad government confiscated property belonging to opposition figures. That left the option of striking deals with the businessmen, getting them to relinquish assets in exchange for being allowed to return to work in Syria. The new government would also benefit from their expert knowledge. Syria's new rulers 'are not Fidel Castro,' the dictator who nationalized much of the Cuban economy, said a banker familiar with the talks. 'Much more Machiavelli.' And so the new Syrian leadership began to untangle the Assad-era economy, which was largely split between tycoons who held major sectors in exchange for kickbacks to Assad and his inner circle, and the corporate empire run for Assad by economy magnate Ibrahim. The empire was known to insiders as 'The Group.' In 2020, Assad appeared victorious in the civil war, thanks to Russian and Iranian support. By then, the palace had established a constellation of more than 100 companies it dubbed Al Ahed, according to a person involved in the plans from their inception and corporate documents. Assad government officials and cronies shared in the profits of the companies with their tycoon owners. It was all overseen by Ibrahim. After Assad fell, the ownership structure appeared even murkier. The Arabic word Al Ahed has several meanings, including 'The Reign' and 'The Pledge.' Reuters reviewed an unpublished ad from 2020, intended for a general audience, that directly links Assad to Al Ahed and describes it as a private company that's helping Syria recover from war. The video ad shows aerial footage of a Syrian city with collapsed buildings and cowering refugees, then pivots with rousing music to images of construction, abundant fields and production lines. 'Sometimes, you can beat war with a smile, or someone who can wipe all of the sadness off your face,' the narrator says, as footage shows Bashar and his wife, Asma, brushing tears off a child's cheek. 'We decided to push on and create a new reality that resembles our dreams.' A slide from an internal presentation given to Assad's inner circle in 2021 shows the cluster of real businesses and shell companies established under Al Ahed to control key economic sectors, including telecoms, banking, real estate and energy. As Damascus fell on December 8, Ibrahim fled . His sister, Nesreen, lamented The Group's loss of control. 'We no longer have any connection to any of the companies. Let them run these companies as they see fit,' Nesreen wrote to associates, according to a WhatsApp message seen by Reuters. She couldn't be reached for comment. The committee obtained the presentation and has used it to guide takeovers, the Assad-era flag replaced with the new one, according to a copy of the updated document seen by Reuters. Reinoud Leenders, a professor at King's College London familiar with Syria's political economy, said that Ibrahim penetrated virtually all of Syria's economic sectors and may have controlled up to 30% of the country's total output by 2024. The World Bank estimated Syria's gross domestic product at $6.2 billion in 2023, around one-tenth of its pre-war level. A former Group financial director put the combined value of its core operations at up to $900 million. But it also accrued other assets, like Syria's main telecom company, Syriatel, via partnerships Assad imposed on tycoons, cannibalizing the economy as the war wore on. Those partnerships included the U.S.-sanctioned sugar and property baron Samer Foz and multi-sector tycoon Mohammed Hamsho, as well as Mohammad and Hussam Qaterji, brothers who ran vast oil and wheat operations. Managing The Group's finances initially proved difficult for the committee. That's because only one person – Ahmed Khalil, an associate of Assad economy czar Ibrahim – had legal access to the bank accounts, according to three senior managers from The Group. The committee asked Khalil and Ibrahim to surrender 80% of the empire in exchange for immunity, people familiar with the matter say, but talks faltered. Neither man responded to requests for comment, nor did the Qaterji brothers. Hamsho denied any wrongdoing. Even without Ibrahim's cooperation, the committee made headway by striking deals with middle management. A key member of Ibrahim's staff said he handed over data in exchange for immunity. A second financial officer in The Group, who has also been working with the committee for months, said at least half of the Assad-era corporate empire has now been taken over. That includes the main telecoms company, Syriatel. It is now controlled by the committee through a member appointed as a signatory, according to a corporate registration document seen by Reuters. Syriatel said some of the Reuters findings were incorrect but did not respond to requests to elaborate. The U.S. State Department official said the U.S. sanctions that remain in place are there to promote accountability. 'Broad and enduring stability in Syria will depend on advancing meaningful justice and accountability for abuses by all parties over the past 14 years,' the official Some of The Group's largest companies have since resumed operations under new names, according to three sources aware of the matter and a document reviewed by Reuters. That includes Cham Wings, Syria's only private airline. The carrier converted into a new company, Fly Cham, under a settlement with owner Issam Shammout, according to three senior aviation sources, a Cham Wings employee and a corporate record reviewed by Reuters. Cham Wings and Shammout are under U.S. and European Union sanctions for alleged involvement in flying mercenaries to Libya and illegal migrants to Belarus, transporting weapons and trafficking the narcotic Captagon. In exchange for immunity from state prosecution, Shammout gave up 45% of the company, according to the document. He also paid $50 million and handed over two aircraft to state-owned Syrian Air, the aviation sources said. The remaining three planes, all Airbus A320s, were repainted in Fly Cham colors but kept their tail numbers. Shammout kept his automobile concession, Shammout Auto, the sources said. A Cham Wings spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Fly Cham said: 'Cham Wings is closed. Fly Cham is a totally new company.' A later statement suggested Reuters contact the committee directly. Sameh Orabi, general director of Syrian Air, told state news agency SANA in May that two new aircraft would join the national fleet but did not elaborate. A Cham Wings A320 with the tail identifier YK-BAG appeared in Syrian Air colors days later. Some of the country's biggest tycoons have also struck deals. Samer Foz, sanctioned by Washington in 2019 for allegedly profiting off Syria's war reconstruction, handed over around 80% of his commercial assets, valued at between $800 million and $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the deal. The deal included one of the Middle East's largest sugar refineries, an iron smelting plant and other factories, the person said. Mohammed Hamsho, whose family enterprises encompass cable production, metalworks, electronics and film studios, handed over around 80% of his commercial assets, valued at more than $640 million, according to three people close to the deal. He was left with around $150 million, and family members kept their companies, the people said. As part of the deal, Hamsho surrendered a lucrative steel processing plant that had been partially taken over by The Group. He has been accused by Syrian opposition and rights groups and businessmen of using the plant to process metal from neighborhoods demolished by Assad's forces. The U.S. Treasury Department alleges he enriched himself through government connections and acting as a front for Assad's brother, Maher, who led the Syrian army's Fourth Division. Western governments have linked the Fourth Division to the illicit production and trade of Captagon, an amphetamine-like drug. Hamsho returned to Syria in January and lives under state protection at his penthouse in Damascus' elite Malki neighborhood. Reuters journalists have repeatedly seen uniformed gunmen stationed in his entryway. Hopes have been high that the fall of Assad would open a new chapter for Syria, but difficulties have accumulated for Ahmed al-Sharaa's government, most recently with bloodshed in the predominantly Druze south. Amr Salem, a former trade minister and advisor to Assad, said the new government's pragmatic approach could benefit a broken country, but a lack of transparency and clear criteria for settlements is risking new abuses of power. 'I myself was asked to make a deal but refused, because I have done nothing wrong,' he told Reuters. The deals have angered many Syrians who want to see prominent figures linked to Assad behind bars, triggering two small protests in June. 'It's insulting to Syrians. There is resentment in the Syrian street over the return of Assad's businessmen or anyone who worked hand in hand with Assad,' said Abdel Hamid Al-Assaf, an activist who has protested Hamsho's homecoming. Contacted by Reuters, Hamsho confirmed he held talks with the committee, but said he would reserve other comment until a settlement is announced. 'I encourage business leaders and investors to look toward Syria,' he said. 'The country embraces a free-market economy and offers fertile ground for diverse and promising investment opportunities.' Syria has gathered pledges of investment at a rapid pace. Saudi Arabia's investment minister led a business delegation to Syria for a two-day investment conference that began July 23, with up to $6 billion in potential deals on the table in major economic sectors. As settlements conclude, some committee members have taken public positions. At least two were appointed to an official commission President Sharaa formed in May to manage some ill-gotten gains. The committee member said this was part of an effort to make official the work that they have so far carried out in the shadows. 'It's a full rebranding, from inside and out,' he said. Committee members' use of the honorific 'sheikh' is gradually being replaced by the Arabic equivalent of 'mister.' Calls and meetings still happen late at night, but the paperwork gets taken care of during business hours. The committee men have also been told to don suits instead of khakis or casual wear, the member said, and they're under orders to keep their pistols out of sight. Reuters
