Better Buy: Bitcoin vs. Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Yahoo

30-04-2025

Over both a 12-month and five-year time period, Strategy stock has outperformed Bitcoin.
Strategy has gone all-in on its Bitcoin acquisition strategy, even going so far as to rebrand itself as a Bitcoin Treasury Company.
Strategy's stock market valuation is now completely dependent on the price of Bitcoin continually rising.
In four of the past five years, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been the top-performing asset in the world, and it hasn't even been close. In 2020, 2023, and 2024, Bitcoin delivered triple-digit returns to investors. Over the past five years, Bitcoin is now up a head-spinning 956%.
It might seem unfathomable, then, that any stock could possibly surpass Bitcoin's performance over that time interval. So you might be surprised that Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) -- the company formerly known as MicroStrategy -- has done exactly that. In 2025, Strategy is up 20% at a time when Bitcoin is struggling. So is it a better buy?
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It really doesn't matter what time period you look at -- year to date, 12 months, or five years -- Strategy has surpassed the performance of Bitcoin. As you can see in the chart below, the performances of Strategy and Bitcoin were highly correlated until early 2024, when there was a notable divergence.
Over the past five years, Strategy is now up 2,758%, compared to Bitcoin's 956%. Based on that figure alone, you might be persuaded that Strategy is a superior investment.
The five-year time period is important. That's because August 2020 was the official kick-off of Strategy's Bitcoin acquisition spree. Since then, the company has been steadily buying Bitcoin, and now holds 538,200 BTC on its balance sheet. At today's prices, that Bitcoin is worth an impressive $50 billion.
In fact, Strategy holds so much Bitcoin that it's now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. It even holds more Bitcoin than the U.S. government. And it has gone all-in on Bitcoin, going so far as to rebrand itself earlier this year as a Bitcoin Treasury Company (BTC). Its primary mission these days is to find ever more creative ways to buy and hold Bitcoin.
Thus, investing in Strategy is one way to get exposure to Bitcoin without buying Bitcoin directly in the spot cryptocurrency market. As such, Strategy has become popular as a Bitcoin proxy stock. If you don't want to buy Bitcoin directly, you can buy Strategy stock instead.
However, in January 2024, the new spot Bitcoin ETFs rolled out. Suddenly, investors had three different ways to get exposure to Bitcoin: 1) buying Bitcoin directly; 2) buying Bitcoin indirectly via a spot Bitcoin ETF; and 3) buying a Bitcoin proxy stock such as Strategy.
That's why the sudden divergence between the performances of Bitcoin and Strategy in early 2024 is so interesting. In hindsight, it appears that many investors concluded that investing in Strategy stock was better than investing in a Bitcoin ETF, and even better than investing in Bitcoin directly.
In fact, they're now willing to pay a hefty premium for that stock. Strategy's Bitcoin holdings are worth $50 billion, but the company's market cap is roughly $100 billion. In short, add up the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings, double it, and that's what investors think Strategy is worth.
There are a few possible explanations for this premium. The obvious explanation, of course, is that Strategy still has a software business, even if it is a money-loser. So there's some value there. The company is still more than just a pure Bitcoin Treasury Company, and it's not fair to assign zero value to the software business.
Another possible explanation is that investors are pricing in massive gains for the company's Bitcoin holdings. In fact, investors appear to be expecting the price of Bitcoin to double within the next 12 months. Thus, even though Strategy is carrying $50 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, investors think that it will soon be worth $100 billion. Given that Bitcoin has delivered triple-digit gains in three of the past five years, that's not out of the question.
The final explanation is that investors are willing to pay a premium for the management skills of Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of the company. After all, Saylor is a top Bitcoin evangelist who continually finds new and creative ways to pay for all that Bitcoin.
That's where things get interesting -- or scary, depending on your perspective. At some point, this endless Bitcoin acquisition strategy may no longer be sustainable. If the software business is no longer profitable, then the company is completely dependent on the price of Bitcoin continually rising.
It's not just that the price of Bitcoin has to rise -- it has to soar in value. Otherwise, the stock no longer deserves its lofty premium. No wonder Strategy is trying to convince everyone -- including the U.S. government -- to buy as much Bitcoin as they can. New buyers mean that the price of Bitcoin can keep going up.
It's fantastic that there are so many different ways to get exposure to Bitcoin, but the best choice for me is still buying Bitcoin directly. I'm still not convinced that any company -- no matter how visionary -- can outperform Bitcoin over the long haul.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Better Buy: Bitcoin vs. Strategy (MicroStrategy) was originally published by The Motley Fool