Southwest monsoon progress likely to remain subdued for a week: IMD

Mint

02-06-2025

New Delhi: Having hit the Kerala coast eight days ahead of schedule, and advanced swiftly inland, the progress of the South-west monsoon is likely to slow down now, the weather department said on Monday.
Rains hit Kerala on 24 May, well before the normal date of 1 June, while its further advance into parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, and all Southern and North-eastern states took place between 26 May and 2 June, ahead of the usual 10 June.
However, further advance is likely to remain weak for the next seven days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
"The advancement of southwest monsoon is likely to be weak for at least next 7 days due to absence of favorable meteorological conditions," IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said.
The southwest monsoon hit Kerala coast on 24 May, eight days before the normal date of 1 June and Mumbai on 26 May, 16 days before the usual 11 June.
"Even if it remains weak for the next seven days, if you see the data, still it is ahead of the normal date," said a scientist at IMD. Normally, the monsoon covers the entire country by 5 July.
The Southwest monsoon is crucial as it delivers nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall. Nearly 45% of the net sowing area is dependent on rains for irrigation purposes, making the monsoon key to agriculture, which contributed about 16% to the country's GDP for FY24.
Its performance also directly impacts food security and consumer demand.
IMD predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall in the North-east for the next two days and rainfall along with thunderstorm, gusty or squally winds during next three days in the North-west.
"Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely to continue over Northeastern states till next 2 days and decrease in intensity thereafter," the IMD said.
It warned that this could lead to localized flooding of roads, water-logging in low-lying areas and possibilities of damage to vulnerable structure. IMD also warned of possible damage to horticulture and standing crops in some areas.
For northwest India, it predicted that rainfall along with thunderstorm and gusty or squally winds were likely to continue during the next 3 days. The northwest comprises Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The IMD warned fisherman not to venture over south and central Arabian Sea, in Lakshadweep from 1130 IST on 2 June to 0530 IST on 4 June, along and off Karnataka coast on 2 June; off north Kerala, Karnataka coasts and over Lakshadweep area on 3 June; over Gulf of Mannar from 1130 IST of 2 June to 0530 IST of 4 June; along and off the Somalia coasts and adjoining sea areas from 1130 IST of 2 June to 0530 IST of 7 June.
"Fishermen are advised not to venture over many parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of north Bay of Bengal from 0530 IST of 2 June to 0530 IST of 4 June; over northern parts of central and adjoining parts of north Bay of Bengal on 4 June; off north Tamil Nadu coast on 04th June," advised IMD.