Funds finally pause corn selloff as focus turns to US crop: Braun

Reuters

2 days ago

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 1 (Reuters) - Speculators have made unprecedented moves in Chicago corn so far in 2025 as the combination of geopolitical uncertainties and supply trends sparked heavy selling, turning a strongly bullish market into a bearish one.
June officially kicks off the summer growing season for U.S. corn, a timeframe that can have investors rapidly changing gears along with weather forecasts and crop health, regardless of the wider fundamental picture.
This puts both bearish and bullish sentiments in play for the near future.
In the week ended May 27, money managers trimmed their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 100,760 contracts, down less than 3,000 on the week.
While this new position isn't hugely bearish historically, it follows an impressive selloff. Between late February and mid-May, money managers were net sellers of more than 420,000 corn contracts, equivalent to 2.1 billion bushels and the most ever for an 11-week span.
Most-active CBOT corn futures fell 10.5% over that period and new-crop December corn eased more than 6%. December corn settled at $4.38-1/2 per bushel on Friday, a five-year low for the date.
Trade fears have been swirling for months, and confusion mounted further last week. U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs were deemed unconstitutional by a U.S. trade court, though the ruling was paused a day later.
On the fundamental front, traders have been weighing strong U.S. corn demand with the expectation for expanding supplies.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month predicted 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks will rise 27% on the year, larger than the 14% rise that was projected in October.
However, the 2025-26 stockpiles themselves are seen 21% lighter than the October forecast suggested, leaving some room for a bull-friendly scenario should corn yields disappoint.
As such, speculators are likely to react if there is any such risk to yields. Take 2023 for example, which featured very similar fund movements as 2025, especially on timing.
As of June 2023, the 2023-24 U.S. corn carryout was projected to rise 55% on the year. Still, funds dipped into bullish territory twice that summer due to weather scares, even though the U.S. corn crop ended up notching a record yield.
Speculators turned bearish in August 2023 and did not flip back over to the bull side again until November 2024, so any upcoming opportunities for bulls could be short-lived if U.S. weather scares don't persist.
In the week ended May 27, money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 36,697 contracts from 12,654 a week earlier. That marked their seventh consecutive week as soybean bulls.
Funds trimmed their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options to 53,988 contracts from 57,309 a week earlier. They also reduced their net short in soybean meal to 93,785 contracts from the previous week's record of 107,466.
Money managers through May 27 cut their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 101,226 contracts from 108,893 a week earlier. They also trimmed their Minneapolis wheat net short to 30,518 contracts from the previous week's record of 34,140.
As of May 27, funds' net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options stood at 79,361 contracts, close to the all-time record set two weeks earlier.
Between Wednesday and Friday, moves in most-active CBOT futures were as follows: corn -3.4%, soybeans -2%, wheat +1%, soyoil -5.4%, and soymeal was unchanged.
Traders will be watching this week for any developments on either the tariff or biofuel front, as well as for U.S. weather forecasts and crop conditions. USDA will publish its first condition rating for the U.S. soybean crop on Monday.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.