Home Depot to report earnings with tariffs, US credit rating downgrade in focus
Investors will be watching Home Depot (HD) earnings on Tuesday for signs of consumers pushing off home renovation projects due to tariffs and challenges in the housing market.
Wall Street expects the home improvement retailer's revenue grew 7.9% year over year to $39.29 billion in the fiscal first quarter, while adjusted earnings are expected to have declined 1.07% to $3.59 per share. Same-store sales are expected to have fallen 0.20% in the quarter, a reversal after comparable sales growth turned positive in Q4 after eight straight quarters of negative growth.
Year to date, Home Depot stock is down 2.5%. Shares of rival Lowe's (LOW) are down nearly 5% versus a 1% gain for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).
"We project it to take multiple quarters and into next year before the growth becomes more solid and flows through to earnings, as near-term macro pressures continue, particularly with uncertainty amidst new tariff policies," Telsey Advisory Group senior managing director Joe Feldman wrote in a note to clients.
Those macro pressures continue heading into Home Depot's report.
Tariff uncertainty remains a top concern for Home Depot and rival Lowe's, which reports results on Wednesday.
The US temporarily dropped tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while so-called reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for a 10% universal duty. However, rates are still much higher than they were historically, and the changing tariff environment may be leading consumers to think twice before embarking on a major renovation.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
At a conference in early April, Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said that Asia is an important region for sourcing but that "a majority of the goods that we sell are produced in the United States." He added that "diversification will be an ongoing strategy for us."
TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko told clients that Home Depot is "better positioned to manage tariffs," as its Pro business makes up 50% of its customer business, compared to Lowe's, which has a 20% exposure to Chinese goods and a larger DIY customer base.
Another factor weighing on the retailer is the sluggish housing market, which Home Depot has called out in recent quarters.
Homebuilder confidence continued to deteriorate in May, falling six points to 34 from the month prior, indicating that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Expected sales in the next six months and traffic from prospective buyers also fell to an 18-month low.
"We expect single-family starts to continue to slow given elevated mortgage rates, higher levels of completed unsold new home inventory, and weak consumer confidence," Bank of America analyst Rafe Jadrosich wrote in a note to clients.
And on Monday, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (^TNX, ^TYX) rose to key levels after Moody's downgraded the US government's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA1. While that won't be reflected in Q1 earnings, higher Treasury yields likely spell higher financing costs for home improvement projects and homebuying, creating another headwind for the sector.
Read more: What is the 10-year Treasury note, and how does it affect your finances?
Here's what Wall Street expects from Home Depot in its fourth quarter results, according to Bloomberg data, compared to what it reported at the same period last year:
Revenue: $39.29 billion, versus $36.42 billion
Adjusted earnings per share: $3.59, versus $3.63
Same-store sales growth: -0.20%, versus -2.80%
US same-store sales growth: -0.16%, versus -3.20%
Transaction growth: 0.18%, versus -1.50%
Average ticket size: -0.65%, versus -1.30%
Home Depot shared in its fourth quarter results that it expects net sales to grow 2.8% and same-store sales growth to increase by 1% for the full fiscal year. McPhail told investors that Home Depot saw "some benefits from hurricanes that won't fully repeat in 2025" and that it assumes "continued pressure on larger projects."
Companies pulling their financial guidance and warning of higher prices in light of tariffs have become common themes this earnings season. Walmart (WMT), a retail bellwether, warned last week that higher tariffs will increase retailers' costs, yet price hikes to offset those costs could weigh on consumer demand.
"The consumer is still being very choiceful, and that will eat into discretionary, no doubt," SW Retail Advisors president Stacey Widlitz told Yahoo Finance.
Telsey Advisory Group's Feldman believes Home Depot "should remain a long-term winner in retail" due to "best-in-class execution, digital prowess, and hybrid work-from-home arrangements causing more maintenance and repair activity."
He added that its pro customer base holds a "significant opportunity" with a roughly $250 billion addressable market following the acquisition of SRS Distribution.
Feldman said he expects "recovery in the home improvement market to begin later in 2025, followed by a more robust environment in 2026 with Home Depot returning to both solid sales and earnings growth."
Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.
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