Ukraine expects clarity soon on security guarantees from US and other allies
The attack mostly targeted western regions of the country, it said. The strikes killed at least one person and injured 15 others, according to officials.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia struck a 'major American electronics manufacturer' in western Ukraine. He provided no further details.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below.
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine will hold intensive meetings to understand what kind of security guarantees its allies are willing to provide after receiving signals that the United States would back reinvigorated discussions seeking an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
The details are being hammered out among national security advisers and military officials and Zelenskyy thinks they will take clearer shape within 10 days. He then expects to be ready to hold direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the full-scale invasion.
The talks could also be conducted in a trilateral format alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, Zelenskyy said.
'We want to have an understanding of the security guarantees architecture within seven to 10 days. And based on that understanding, we aim to hold a trilateral meeting. That was my logic,' Zelenskyy said, speaking to reporters Wednesday after his trip to Washington along with Europe's top leaders.
'President Trump suggested a slightly different logic: a trilateral meeting through a bilateral one,' Zelenskyy said. 'But then we all agreed that, in any case, we continue working on the security guarantees, establishing this approximate framework, similar to Article 5. And what we have today is political support for this.'
Article 5 is NATO's common defense guarantee under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on them all.
A venue for the meeting is being discussed with Switzerland, Austria and Turkey as possibilities, Zelenskyy added.
Kyiv still does not have clarity over what kind of support it can expect from allies. A coalition of more than 30 countries have in principle pledged to contribute to security guarantees but talks came to a standstill when the U.S. remained ambivalent about its role.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said working on security arrangements in Ukraine without Moscow's involvement would not work, according to state news agency RIA Novosti.
'We cannot agree with the fact that it is now proposed to resolve collective security issues without the Russian Federation. This will not work. We have already explained more than once that Russia does not overstate its interests, but we will ensure our legitimate interests firmly and harshly,' Lavrov said at a news conference Wednesday
Recent positive signals from Trump suggesting the U.S. will support 'Article 5-like' security guarantees and Ukraine's hopes to join the European Union have reinvigorated those discussions, Zelenskyy said.
'Today we have a positive signal from America, from President Trump, from his team, that they will be participants in the security guarantees for Ukraine. And this opens up the possibility for other countries,' he added. 'Now the general staff of key countries have already started talking about what they are ready for. And some countries that were not there will probably appear now.'
Turkey vocalized its readiness to provide security along the Black Sea after Trump appeared open to the possibility of supporting security guarantees for Ukraine, Zelenskyy said.
Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine is ready to hold direct talks with Putin.
'And what if the Russians are not ready? The Europeans raised the issue. If the Russians are not ready, then we would like to see a strong reaction from the United States,' he said.
Ukraine previously has expressed hope that the U.S. will punish Russia with more sanctions if it does not demonstrate a serious willingness to end the war.
Zelenskyy spoke positively about his meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Monday alongside Europe's top leaders. He sought to convince Trump that the battlefield situation was not as bad for Ukraine as Putin portrayed.
Zelenskyy pointed to errors in the U.S. map of the front line that he said showed Russia holding more territory than it actually does.
'President Trump was interested in hearing the details. We talked a lot about Donbas, about the East, what its importance is. I noted that if our military withdraws from this territory and it is occupied, then we will open the way to Kharkiv,' Zelenskyy said, adding that he showed Trump roads leading to Ukraine's industrial center in Dnipropetrovsk.
'I noted to him that there are many important aspects here. If we are simply talking about withdrawing from the east, we cannot do this,' Zelenskyy said, noting that he believed Trump had understood him.
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CBS News
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Gabbard barred sharing intelligence on Russia-Ukraine negotiations with "Five Eyes" partners
Washington — As Russia's war in Ukraine rages on despite high-level meetings to discuss a possible path to peace, CBS News has learned that Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, issued a directive weeks ago to the U.S. intelligence community ordering that all information regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations not be shared with U.S.-allied intelligence partners. The memo, dated July 20 and signed by Gabbard, directed agencies to not share information with the so-called Five Eyes, the post-World War II intelligence alliance comprising the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand, multiple U.S. intelligence officials told CBS News. They spoke under condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security matters. The officials said the directive classified all analysis and information related to the volatile Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations as "NOFORN," or no foreign dissemination, meaning the information could not be shared with any other country or foreign nationals. The only information that could be shared was information that had already been publicly released. The memo also limited distribution of material regarding peace talks to within the agencies that created or originated the intelligence. The memo does not seem to prevent the sharing of diplomatic information gathered by other means separate from the U.S. intelligence community, or military operational information unrelated to the talks — such as the details the U.S. shares with the Ukrainian military to aid in their defensive operations. Contacted by CBS News, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence referred questions to the White House, which did not respond. "In general, the value of the Fives Eyes intelligence partnership is that when we are making and they are making policy decisions, we can both augment each other's intelligence and therefore know more about the plans, intentions, and capabilities of our adversaries," explained Steven Cash, a former intelligence officer at the Central Intelligence Agency and Department of Homeland Security. "Among the reasons for that sort of default is the expectation that we and the other four are all sitting on the same side of the table with some other adversary on the other side," Cash said. He said it's important for the allies to have "a common intelligence picture" so policymakers and negotiators "can coordinate our positions and get the best deal we can, or fight the best war we can." Cash is the executive director of The Steady State, a nonprofit organization made up of former U.S. intelligence and national security professionals and government officials concerned with threats to American democracy. In March 1946, Winston Churchill spoke of the "special relationship" between the U.S. and the U.K. and the threat of the "Iron Curtain" that had "descended across the Continent." The United States and Britain first forged their intelligence alliance in secret, signing an agreement to pool information as a bulwark against the Soviet Union. Later, Canada, Australia and New Zealand joined the arrangement, transforming what began as a bilateral pact into the five-nation network that would come to be known as the Five Eyes. But now, nearly 80 years later, some former U.S. government officials warn that the breadth of Gabbard's order could undermine the intelligence community alliance — discouraging analysts from sharing insights and eroding trust among allies who have long relied on open exchanges to form a common picture of global threats and paths to successful negotiation. Cash and CBS News national security contributor Sam Vinograd, a former homeland security official, said Five Eyes often has intelligence that helps the U.S. produce comprehensive intelligence assessments, especially about Russia, given the access Five Eyes partners have to other intelligence sources. "Shutting our most trusted partners off from intelligence assessments could have a chilling effect on critical intelligence sharing if our partners believe they're being shut out of key access — including on key matters in their region. They could decide to take similar steps toward the U.S.," Vinograd said. 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"There is a lot of information we do not share even with our Five Eyes partners, and it works in the reverse. There's a lot of U.K. eyes-only material. There's a lot of Australian eyes-only material," said Cohen. "Our interests are not always aligned with our Five Eyes partners," Cohen said. "And where we have diverging interests, and it's not just Ukraine, we absolutely mark things NOFORN." He admits it's possible the directive could result in depriving the U.S. of information, but maintains these types of decisions have historically been the norm between all of the Five Eyes members. He said the claim that the directive represents "a chilling of the relationship" between the U.S. and Five Eyes seems "a little bit like faux outrage." As intelligence work and diplomatic efforts continue, largely out of the public eye, the war in Ukraine continues to take a deadly toll. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned Moscow Thursday for launching hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in an attack overnight, "as if nothing had changed at all. As if there were no efforts by the world to stop this war."
CBS News
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California trucker accused of causing deadly crash extradited to Florida
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Forbes
a minute ago
- Forbes
Are Gas Prices Falling Because U.S. Oil Production Is Surging?
Simple answers are easy, but often wrong. The real ones take context, and a little more work. Below I provide the context for the question in the title, if you put in the work to read and understand. I was recently forwarded a link to a story at an NBC affiliate in Montana--'Drill, baby, drill': Gas prices might drop below $3 by end of 2025--that purports to connect the recent drop in gasoline prices with President Trump's pro-energy policies. The first line of the article states: "There has recently been a surge in oil and gas production thanks to President Donald Trump's pro-energy policies." Before we zoom in on recent oil production, it may be helpful to step back and look at the major oil production events of the past 24 years, shown in the following graphic. There were many events that have impacted oil production since 2000. During President George W. Bush's two terms, oil production continued that gradual decline that had been ongoing since the early 1970s. However, oil and gas producers were perfecting the marriage of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which would usher in the 'shale boom', or 'fracking boom' that would soon follow. The price of oil steadily rose during Bush's presidency--cracking $100 a barrel in February 2008--and that provided significant economic incentive for the fracking boom. President Obama's two terms oversaw the largest expansion of U.S. oil and natural gas production in history. Even though Obama was largely seen as being hostile to oil and gas, technology and market forces were the most significant factor in driving oil production higher during his presidency. One exception during his term took place in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia led OPEC in increasing output despite falling prices, aiming to undercut U.S. shale producers and defend market share. This led to an oil price collapse in 2015 and 2016 from over $100 to below $30 per barrel. U.S. shale ultimately cut costs and improved efficiency, but U.S. oil production was negatively impacted for a while. Nevertheless, by November 2016 it was clear that the U.S. shale industry would survive, so OPEC reached a landmark agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), marking the end of the price war and the birth of the OPEC+ alliance. This subsequently led to a price recovery, and a rebound of U.S. oil production growth. President Trump took office in January 2017, and oil production returned to the growth mode seen during Obama's first seven years in office. Producers broke the previous monthly oil production record set in 1970 in October of Trump's first year in office. Trump did pass pro-oil policies, but the OPEC+ production cuts that began raising oil prices were the biggest factor that returned growth back to pre-OPEC price war levels. Often lost in the discussion is that as a result of rising oil prices, the average gasoline price in the U.S. actually increased during Trump's first three years in office--until the COVID-19 pandemic arrived. The pandemic famously collapsed both oil prices--which briefly turned negative as stay-at-home orders were implemented--and oil production, which dropped by a staggering 3 million barrels per day in April and May 2020. When people fondly remember gasoline prices that dropped below $2.00 a gallon under President Trump, that was the only time it happened. When President Biden assumed office in January 2021, oil production had recovered back to 11.2 million bpd, which was still 1.8 million bpd below the pre-pandemic peak. But oil production growth would resume in Biden's second year. In each of his last two years in office, the U.S. would again set production records for both oil and natural gas production. Oil production growth was significantly helped by the price surge that took place in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, demonstrating once again the power of macro factors to move production. Before we zoom in on President Trump's second term, let's review. There have been major factors moving the oil markets over the past 24 years, but few of them are related to actions by the president. It is true that Presidents Obama and Biden passed green policies, and were generally hostile to oil and gas production. Nevertheless, Obama saw the greatest expansion of oil and gas production in U.S. history, while Biden oversaw production records in natural gas all four years he was in office, and oil production records his last two years in office. Note that this isn't to give credit but rather highlight the importance of macro factors in setting oil prices and influencing oil production. Yes, each president, including President Trump, passed policies that likely had some impact on oil and gas production. But those policies have relatively small impacts against macro factors like a fracking boom or an OPEC price war. The one exception one could argue would be the long-term implications of fracking that were primarily developed under George W. Bush. President Trump's Second Term 'Surge' Returning to the claim from the NBC affiliate, let's zoom in on the first seven months of President Trump's second term, and contrast this with President Biden's term. If there is a surge, we should see it in the following graphic, which starts in February 2021--Biden's first full month in office--and extends through mid-August 2025. Supporting data can be found at the EIA here and here. The first thing to note is that there are a number of weather-related impacts. The jump right at the beginning of Biden's term was recovery from the impacts of Winter Storm Uri. Thus, the initial surge was really just bouncing back to where production was just before the storm. Likewise, in January 2024, a severe winter storm drastically slashed oil production in Texas. And in January 2025, cold weather once again negatively impacted production in North Dakota and Texas. Following each of these events, production bounced back. The first full month of President Trump's second term was February 2025. Production rebounded that month from the previous decline, as it had following previous bad weather events. But even if you want to give President Trump credit for the February bump--when his policies hadn't had time to take effect--there's still no surge when viewed over the course of the past 4.5 years. In fact, you see significantly larger 'surges' during serious periods of Biden's presidency. Oil production in 2023 set a record that was 7.9% higher than 2022 production, and 5.0% higher than the previous 2019 record. The new record in 2024 was 2.1% higher than in 2023. Production did rise slightly to a new monthly record in March 2025, and year-to-date production is running about 2.0% ahead of last year's record pace (although it has fallen over the past two months). So, indeed we are on pace to set a new production record this year, but the pace of production is slowing. There's certainly no surge as claimed. Further, the NBC article linked previously cites former White House economic advisor Steve Moore as stating, 'Trump is into, as you called it, 'Drill, baby, drill,' and we're seeing some of the fruits of that.' In fact, the number of rigs drilling for oil has steadily fallen this year, which is the exact opposite of what Moore implies. He is correct that we are likely to set another production record this year, but it should be clear that this is a continuation of a long-term trend that appears to be slowing. Note that I didn't address natural gas, but the trends are much the same. Production has grown steadily since about 2005, but there has been no surge at any point. Why Are Gasoline Prices Falling? Gasoline prices have slipped noticeably this year, tracking the broader decline in crude oil. That's raised a familiar political talking point: some Trump supporters insist the drop is thanks to a surge in drilling unleashed by the president's policies. But the reality is more complicated. Energy markets are global, and prices move according to supply, demand, and inventories—factors that rarely hinge on the occupant of the White House. The biggest driver right now is surging global supply. OPEC+ announced that it will fully unwind its 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by September 2025—a full year earlier than planned. At the same time, non-OPEC producers like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana continue to ramp up output. Altogether, global supply is set to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, outpacing demand and putting clear downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, growth has been softer than expected. Consumption in China, India, and Brazil has underwhelmed, while in the OECD countries, demand is essentially flat. Japan is hitting multi-decade lows, and U.S. GDP growth has slowed to just 1.4%, which has translated into weaker fuel consumption at home. Finally, oil inventories are swelling. Stockpiles have risen for five straight months, hitting a 46-month high of 7.8 billion barrels worldwide. Rising inventories are a textbook sign of oversupply, and history shows that sustained builds like this often precede sharper price declines. In short, today's lower gasoline prices aren't the result of any single politician's actions. They're the outcome of a global supply surge colliding with tepid demand growth and rising stockpiles. The political spin may be irresistible, but the market forces at work are far larger than any administration. In the past, falling oil prices were a clear win for the U.S. economy. Back in 2005, the country imported around 12.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, so cheaper oil meant a smaller import bill and more money in consumers' pockets. But the U.S. has since flipped from being the world's largest importer to a net exporter of crude and refined products. That changes the calculus. Lower oil prices still benefit consumers at the pump, but they also strain one of America's most important industries, reduce export revenues, and widen the trade deficit. For a country that now relies on energy exports as a pillar of economic strength, cheap oil is a double-edged sword. Conclusion It's tempting to give too much credit or blame to a president for what's happening at the pump. But the reality is that gasoline prices are dictated by forces much bigger than any one administration. Technological shifts like fracking, geopolitical decisions by OPEC+, weather disruptions, and global demand trends shape oil markets far more decisively than executive orders or campaign slogans. That doesn't mean policy is irrelevant—it can tilt the playing field at the margins. But the recent slide in prices is a reminder that energy is a global business, and the U.S. is both a beneficiary and a casualty of its volatility. Consumers welcome relief at the gas station, yet as an energy-exporting nation, we also absorb the downside of weaker prices. The bottom line: partisans may spin the price of gasoline, but the true story lies in the global interplay of supply, demand, and investment. And that story is always bigger—and more complicated—than Washington.
