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Economic Times
23 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Trump tariff, RBI policy, FII selloff among 5 factors to impact stock market this week
Indian stock markets face a crucial week. Global and domestic factors are creating pressure. These include US tariffs, a strong dollar, and foreign investor selling. Weak corporate earnings also contribute. The Reserve Bank of India's policy decision is keenly awaited. Diplomatic efforts on India-US trade are important. Investors are watching these factors for market direction. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 2. Dollar strength 3. Trump's tariff salvo 4. FII outflows and rising short bets Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 5. Q1 earnings disappoint The domestic stock market is set to enter a pivotal week after notching their worst five-week run since 2023, as a confluence of global and domestic pressures, from fresh U.S. tariffs and a surging dollar to relentless foreign outflows and weak corporate earnings , weigh on investor sentiment . Market participants will be closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, as well as diplomatic manoeuvring around India's trade ties with the U.S., for cues on Nifty 50 dropped 0.82% to 24,565.35 and the Sensex declined 0.72% to 80,599.91 on Friday, capping a 1.1% weekly loss. It marked the fifth straight week of declines, the longest losing streak for both indices in two Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meets from August 4 to 6, with mounting expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut. A report by the State Bank of India said that a frontloaded cut in August could bring an 'early Diwali' by boosting credit growth, especially as the FY26 festive season is Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking, said, 'At the domestic level, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting on August 8,' noting that 'the central bank's commentary on inflation, liquidity, and growth outlook will be keenly watched. A dovish tilt could offer support to rate-sensitive sectors.'The dollar index surged 2.5% last week to cross the 100 mark, reaching a two-month high and registering its strongest weekly gain in nearly three years. The greenback's rally has intensified foreign investor outflows and pushed up the cost of foreign currency sharp appreciation in the dollar has added pressure on emerging market assets, including India, exacerbating concerns around capital confidence took a hit after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, sharper than anticipated, and reaffirmed penalties on nearly 70 countries. While India avoided additional sanctions related to its Russian defence and energy ties, the broader move heightened fears over protectionism and its fallout on global for its part, is expected to continue oil imports from Russia. 'These are long-term oil contracts,' a government official told Reuters. 'It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight.' Another official confirmed to Reuters that India would maintain its energy engagements with Moscow despite U.S. last month warned on Truth Social of 'additional penalties' over India's Russian will be closely tracking diplomatic developments around the proposed U.S.-India trade deal this week. Ajit Mishra noted that 'policymakers are expected to respond diplomatically ahead of the next scheduled discussions.'Foreign Institutional Investors have remained persistent sellers, pulling out over Rs 27,000 crore across the past nine trading sessions. On Thursday alone, FIIs net sold equities worth Rs 5,588.91 pullback coincides with record bearish positioning. Short interest in index futures has surged to 90%, the highest since March 2023, while the long-to-short ratio has slipped to just 0.11 in the August series. Nifty rollovers also dropped to 75.71% in July, down from 79.53% in June.'The market oscillated between cautious optimism and defensive positioning, ultimately ending lower due to a persistent FII outflow,' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. 'With global headwinds, investors showed a preference for domestically driven stories with non-discretionary appeal, as broader sentiment turned selective.''Going forward, investors will closely monitor the upcoming RBI rate decision next week, while the risks remain tilted to the downside,' Nair added. 'A stable inflation outlook, potential progress in trade talks, and selective strength in domestic sectors are anticipated to lay the groundwork for a recovery.'The first-quarter earnings season has offered little cheer, with several major stocks reacting negatively to results . The Nifty IT index has slumped 10% in the past month, while Nifty Bank has remained broadly to an Economic Times report, India's top nine private sector banks posted just 2.7% year-on-year profit growth in Q1, underlining tepid credit demand and the broader impact of muted economic activity.'Domestic equity market navigated a volatile week marked by heightened uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and subdued earnings,' said Nair of Geojit read | NSE reaches Rs 40 crore settlement with Sebi over data disclosure case (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Trump's tariffs, RBI policy, FII selloff among 5 factors to impact stock markets this week
The domestic stock market is set to enter a pivotal week after notching their worst five-week run since 2023, as a confluence of global and domestic pressures, from fresh U.S. tariffs and a surging dollar to relentless foreign outflows and weak corporate earnings , weigh on investor sentiment . Market participants will be closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, as well as diplomatic manoeuvring around India's trade ties with the U.S., for cues on direction. The Nifty 50 dropped 0.82% to 24,565.35 and the Sensex declined 0.72% to 80,599.91 on Friday, capping a 1.1% weekly loss. It marked the fifth straight week of declines, the longest losing streak for both indices in two years. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category healthcare Healthcare Leadership Data Analytics Artificial Intelligence Technology Management Cybersecurity Others Project Management Finance MBA Degree Product Management others MCA Public Policy Operations Management Digital Marketing Design Thinking PGDM Data Science CXO Data Science Skills you'll gain: Duration: 11 Months IIM Lucknow CERT-IIML Healthcare Management India Starts on undefined Get Details Here are five key factors likely to influence market movements this week: 1. RBI policy The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meets from August 4 to 6, with mounting expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut. A report by the State Bank of India said that a frontloaded cut in August could bring an 'early Diwali' by boosting credit growth, especially as the FY26 festive season is frontloaded. Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking, said, 'At the domestic level, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting on August 8,' noting that 'the central bank's commentary on inflation, liquidity, and growth outlook will be keenly watched. A dovish tilt could offer support to rate-sensitive sectors.' 2. Dollar strength The dollar index surged 2.5% last week to cross the 100 mark, reaching a two-month high and registering its strongest weekly gain in nearly three years. The greenback's rally has intensified foreign investor outflows and pushed up the cost of foreign currency borrowing. The sharp appreciation in the dollar has added pressure on emerging market assets, including India, exacerbating concerns around capital flight. 3. Trump's tariff salvo Investor confidence took a hit after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, sharper than anticipated, and reaffirmed penalties on nearly 70 countries. While India avoided additional sanctions related to its Russian defence and energy ties, the broader move heightened fears over protectionism and its fallout on global trade. India, for its part, is expected to continue oil imports from Russia. 'These are long-term oil contracts,' a government official told Reuters. 'It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight.' Another official confirmed to Reuters that India would maintain its energy engagements with Moscow despite U.S. threats. Trump last month warned on Truth Social of 'additional penalties' over India's Russian deals. Markets will be closely tracking diplomatic developments around the proposed U.S.-India trade deal this week. Ajit Mishra noted that 'policymakers are expected to respond diplomatically ahead of the next scheduled discussions.' 4. FII outflows and rising short bets Foreign Institutional Investors have remained persistent sellers, pulling out over Rs 27,000 crore across the past nine trading sessions. On Thursday alone, FIIs net sold equities worth Rs 5,588.91 crore. The pullback coincides with record bearish positioning. Short interest in index futures has surged to 90%, the highest since March 2023, while the long-to-short ratio has slipped to just 0.11 in the August series. Nifty rollovers also dropped to 75.71% in July, down from 79.53% in June. 'The market oscillated between cautious optimism and defensive positioning, ultimately ending lower due to a persistent FII outflow,' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. 'With global headwinds, investors showed a preference for domestically driven stories with non-discretionary appeal, as broader sentiment turned selective.' 'Going forward, investors will closely monitor the upcoming RBI rate decision next week, while the risks remain tilted to the downside,' Nair added. 'A stable inflation outlook, potential progress in trade talks, and selective strength in domestic sectors are anticipated to lay the groundwork for a recovery.' 5. Q1 earnings disappoint The first-quarter earnings season has offered little cheer, with several major stocks reacting negatively to results . The Nifty IT index has slumped 10% in the past month, while Nifty Bank has remained broadly flat. According to an Economic Times report, India's top nine private sector banks posted just 2.7% year-on-year profit growth in Q1, underlining tepid credit demand and the broader impact of muted economic activity. 'Domestic equity market navigated a volatile week marked by heightened uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and subdued earnings,' said Nair of Geojit Investments. Also read | NSE reaches Rs 40 crore settlement with Sebi over data disclosure case
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Buy or sell: Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi recommends three stocks to buy on Monday - 4 August 2025
Buy or sell: The Indian equity markets witnessed notable profit booking this week, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,565, registering a weekly decline of 0.90%. The index broke decisively below its recent consolidation range of 24,800–25,200, a zone it had maintained over the previous week. Friday's heavy sell-off was particularly significant, driven by concerns over a potentially weak earnings season and an unexpected imposition of steep tariffs by the Trump administration. Additionally, market sentiment was impacted by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on July 30 to keep the key short-term interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, despite growing pressure from President Donald Trump to reduce borrowing costs. From a technical standpoint, a sustained close below the 24,800–25,200 range has reinforced bearish sentiment, potentially opening the path for a further decline toward the 24,300 levels in the near term. A breach below 24,800 suggests a short-term pause or minor correction within the broader uptrend. The overall trend, however, remains bearish in the short term as long as the Nifty trades below the 25,000–25,200 mark. The 24,800–25,000 zone now emerges as a critical resistance area, supported by the highest Call Open Interest (OI). On the downside, 24,200 and 24,500 are key support levels, backed by significant Put OI. A sustained move above 25,200 would be essential to confirm the resumption of bullish momentum. The Bank Nifty also closed the week on a weaker note at 55,617, continuing to exhibit signs of weakness. The index now faces immediate resistance in the 56,500–57,000 zone, with a decisive breakout above this range potentially triggering a fresh uptrend. On the downside, the 55,000 level is expected to attract buying interest and acts as a crucial support level for the index. On a broader timeframe, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty closed the week below their respective monthly support levels—23,800 for Nifty and 56,000 for Bank Nifty—indicating a continuation of the prevailing short-term bearish sentiment. For the week ahead, key levels to watch include support at 24,200–24,300 and resistance at 25,200 for the Nifty, while Bank Nifty holds support between 55,000–55,500 and faces resistance at 57,000. Traders are advised to remain cautious and closely monitor global cues and geopolitical developments, which may influence short-term market direction. While the broader trend remains cautiously optimistic, a breakout above the identified resistance levels will be essential to confirm the resumption of upward momentum. Buy National Aluminium Co at ₹ 178-180; Stop Loss at ₹ 174; Target Price of ₹ 188. Buy Central Depository Services (India) at ₹ 1470-1480; Stop Loss at ₹ 1430; Target Price of ₹ 1540. Buy Marico at ₹ 705-710; Stop Loss at ₹ 685; Target Price of ₹ 735. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
