How monsoon continues to determine India's food production

Hindustan Times

29-05-2025

The impact of monsoon that hit Kerala on May 24, eight days before its onset date, and the IMD's prediction of most of the country receiving above normal rains in June can be interpreted in many different ways. For urban India--it is largely a relief from heat but for most Indians living in rural India--it is a glimpse into what their year will look like. For centuries, the Indian monsoon has been the heartbeat and decisive factor for agriculture and economy. Its rhythmic arrival in June brings not just water to the parched land, but hope to millions of farmers whose livelihoods hinge on the rains.
Globally, India ranks first in rainfed agriculture, both in terms of extent and value of produce. For our farmers, this means that their economic well-being remains closely tied to the monsoon, which accounts 70% of the country's annual rainfall and irrigates over half of India's 142 million hectares of arable land. Further, monsoon dependent farming is largely practised by most small and marginal farmers in India – whose incomes remain disproportionately dependent on monsoon in any given year. Nearly 60% of India's net cultivated area depends on the southwest monsoon. Crops like rice, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane--which form the backbone of India's kharif (summer) crop season--rely heavily on the June-to-September rains. The subsequent rabi (winter) crops also depend on the monsoon and the balance water it leaves in the reservoirs for the lean season.
It is the monsoon (and not the finance ministry!) that decides India's budget. I call it a 'Rain Chain'. A good harvest following a normal monsoon increases disposable income in rural areas leading to greater rural spending and greater demand for consumer goods and services. In contrast, a weak or delayed monsoon can derail this cycle- including higher pressure on public sector spending. It is a chain reaction.
The monsoon doesn't just affect farmers; it sends ripples across the economy; food inflation being one of the most immediate consequences. In years of poor rainfall, reduced agriculture output pushes prices up — especially of vegetables, pulses, and cereals — hurting poor and urban consumers alike.
A good monsoon translates into a good economy.
How do you define a good monsoon?
A good monsoon is not just about more rains--it is about reliable rains. The vagaries of the monsoon include, early or late onset or withdrawal of monsoon, increased dry spells between rain events, stressing crops uneven spatial and distribution--some regions receive excess rainfall while others face deficits. An observed and increasing trend in India, in last few years of more intense rainfall events, but shorter monsoon windows also attribute to floods and droughts, sometimes in the same region and often during the same season.
The climate crisis has increasingly manifested in the form of erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns across the world with both ecological and economic consequences. It especially has greater direct implications on rainfed systems, posing severe challenges to agriculture production and thereby on the overall economy. In the last five years, the number of extreme rainfall events in India have increased by over 40% and has disrupted sowing cycles. A study by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) found that rainfed crop yields could decline by 10–40% by 2040. These predictions and impacts highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural strategies, such as abiotic stress (drought, flood) tolerant seeds, better water management, crop diversification, and accessible insurance schemes tailored to the needs of smallholders. It also seeks attention to actions to capacitate farmers to adapt to the changes.
Responding to these vagaries is proving to be the most difficult part of farming--especially for over 80% of India's farmers who are small and marginal and with much greater dependence on the monsoon.
A changing climate, resulting in changing rain fall patterns calls for changing what we grow, how we grow and whom we grow for.
We are not very efficient in usage of water to grow rice. The global average to produced one kg of husked rice is about 2,500 to 3,400 litres. This includes all water inputs: Irrigation, rainfall, and soil moisture, over the entire cropping period. In India, where rice is typically grown under flooded conditions, the average water requirement for producing one kg of rice is around 3,500 to 5,000 litres, depending on region, varieties and irrigation method. India's top rice and wheat producing states--Punjab, Haryana--which contribute almost 15% of India's entire rice production, according to the NABARD and ICRIER reports—and Western Uttar Pradesh in the Gangetic plain, are also among the world's top water-risk zones for agricultural production.
Crops such as millets are a good example from a water efficiency perspective and adapting to the impact of climate and mitigating our dependence on the monsoon. Traditionally cultivated across dry and semi-arid regions of India, millets are highly climate-resilient crops. They can survive in relatively poor soils, withstand high temperatures (above 40°C), and tolerate erratic rainfall patterns, making them particularly suitable for rainfed agriculture. Unlike rice and wheat, which require substantial water inputs, millets are C4 photosynthetic plants with shorter growing cycles, enabling them to produce food with significantly lower environmental stress.
In terms of water use, millets offer considerable advantages. Unlike its rich and more celebrated cousin, rice, millet requires much less water (200-600 litres/kg) and is better equipped to battle the monsoon irregularities.
India is the world's largest producer of millets, contributing around 41% of global production. In 2022–23, millet production in India stood at approximately 18 million tonnes, way less than its rich cousin that still occupies most of resources, have much higher demand and production of close to 140 million metric tonnes. Rice also dominates the export and domestic market and while millet's market potential realisation has a lot to catch up to--its potential for water efficiency cannot be underestimated.
Today, we have data on water productivity mapping of major Indian crops. This needs to be leveraged to drive crop diversification. We now need to look beyond states boundaries and develop a cluster-based approach that matches the right crops, its requirement for water and where it makes most sense to grow them.
Technological innovations such as soil moisture sensors, weather forecasting tools, remote sensing, and IoT-enabled irrigation systems can greatly improve the precision and timing of water application. These technologies help farmers make informed decisions, thus conserving water while maintaining yields. Weather patterns are changing--rain patterns will continue to change--the key is in adapting to the change by capacitating the systems with better tools to predict, forecast and mange it. These are increasingly helping farmers by enabling them to not simply pray for a better monsoon but to manage the monsoon better.
The Indian monsoon is not just a meteorological event--it is a socio-economic phenomenon woven into the very fabric of life. As the climate crisis distorts its rhythms, the stakes for India's agriculture, food security, and economy grow higher. Mitigating this crisis requires not only urgent climate action but also systemic reform in how India manages its water, land, and agricultural resources.
For now, as every monsoon approaches, all eyes still turn to the skies--waiting for the rains, and with it better economic prospects.
This article is authored by Purvi Mehta, adjunct professor, Cornell University, US and global advisor, World Food Prize.