Catalyst to GDP expansion
PETALING JAYA: MIDF Research continues to hold a positive view on the consumer sector despite a subdued macro outlook.
The research house said the sector would continue to be supported by structural consumption drivers and defensive earnings visibility.
'Household spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by wage adjustments in the services sector, targeted government assistance, and favourable base effects.
'In particular, the consumer staples segment is likely to outperform, benefiting from non-discretionary demand and limited exposure to external shocks,' the research house explained.
It said domestic consumption would remain a key anchor of gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year on the back of rising disposable income, stable employment, and manageable inflation,
MIDF Research said its economist has revised down the country's GDP growth forecast to 4% from 4.6% previously, reflecting a more cautious outlook due to rising global uncertainties.
'The downgrade is primarily attributed to weaker export prospects, as external demand softens, and the implementation of US tariffs exerts pressure on key trade-dependent sectors.
'While industrial production and export-oriented segments may face deceleration, the broader economic impact is expected to be cushioned by the strength of domestic demand.
'The labour market remains healthy, with the unemployment rate projected to average 3.1% in 2025, supported by continued employment growth and rising workforce participation,' it added.
The research house said Malaysia's retail trade continued to chart a resilient growth trajectory, expanding 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM65.15bil in February.
This brought cumulative retail sales for the first two months of the year to RM131.27bil, up 7% y-o-y from RM122.64bil a year ago.
'The expansion was fuelled by buoyant demand in food and beverage and tobacco, alongside sturdy sales in non-specialised stores, which include hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience outlets,' it added.
MIDF Research said the country's labour market continues to be the bedrock of consumer resilience, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.1% and employment growth of 2.9% y-o-y consistently outpacing labour force expansion for 43 consecutive months.
On the price front, inflation pressures stayed well-anchored – headline consumer price index (CPI) moderated to 1.5% y-o-y in February, while core CPI edged up slightly to 1.9% y-o-y, signalling limited erosion to consumer purchasing power.
The research house expected retail consumption to stay upbeat, underpinned by structural tailwinds such as civil servant salary hikes, higher minimum wages, cash assistance, and a recovering tourism sector.
It favoured consumer staples and general merchandise retailers with a 'buy' call for Aeon Co (M) Bhd, given its strong positioning to capture rising consumer spending, festive-driven demand, and resilient retail trade growth.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research anticipated sustained strength in Malaysia's tourism momentum, underpinned by robust government initiatives and long-term structural drivers.
It said the RM550mil allocation for tourism under Budget 2025, coupled with continued visa facilitation for key markets, is expected to reinforce international arrivals.
The research house said the resurgence in tourist arrivals is expected to translate into meaningful gains for consumer-facing businesses with strong exposure to travel-centric spending.
It has a 'buy' call on Spritzer Bhd , which is set to benefit from heightened demand for bottled water amid increased mobility and longer visitor dwell times.
The research house also liked the dominant bottled water player in Sabah, Life Water Bhd, as the company stands to gain significantly from the state's booming tourism activity, supported by its entrenched distribution across tourist hotspots.
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