Instant Emmy prediction data shows ‘The Studio' and ‘Severance' out to early leads, with ‘Hacks' and ‘The Pitt' lurking
Comedy
For the comedy genre, The Studio is expected to win three of the seven top races: Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actor (Seth Rogen), and Best Comedy Directing ("The Oner"). Apple TV+'s new show made Emmys history with 23 nominations, the most ever for a freshman outing. Rival series Hacks, which won the series race last year, is also out front in three categories: Best Comedy Actress (Jean Smart, who is so far undefeated), Best Comedy Supporting Actress (Hannah Einbinder, who has yet to win), and Best Comedy Writing ("A Slippery Slope"). Finally, Shrinking is poised to get on the board with a victory for Best Comedy Supporting Actor (Harrison Ford, who's celebrating his first-ever nomination).
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Here's the breakdown of early odds for each key comedy category:
Comedy Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Studio
70.3%
2.
Hacks
20.8%
3.
The Bear
2.6%
4.
Only Murders in the Building
2.2%
5.
Abbott Elementary
2.5%
6.
Shrinking
0.2%
7.
Nobody Wants This
0.4%
8.
What We Do in the Shadows
1.0%
Comedy Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Jean Smart
Hacks
90.3%
2.
Ayo Edebiri
The Bear
3.5%
3.
Quinta Brunson
Abbott Elementary
2.8%
4.
Kristen Bell
Nobody Wants This
2.6%
5.
Uzo Aduba
The Residence
0.9%
Comedy Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Seth Rogen
The Studio
78.2%
2.
Martin Short
Only Murders in the Building
13.9%
3.
Jeremy Allen White
The Bear
6.3%
4.
Adam Brody
Nobody Wants This
1.2%
5.
Jason Segel
Shrinking
0.5%
Comedy Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Hannah Einbinder
Hacks
69.8%
2.
Catherine O'Hara
The Studio
14.4%
3.
Liza Colon-Zayas
The Bear
5.5%
4.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
4.3%
5.
Kathryn Hahn
The Studio
4.4%
6.
Sheryl Lee Ralph
Abbott Elementary
0.9%
7.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
0.6%
Comedy Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Harrison Ford
Shrinking
38.1%
2.
Ike Barinholtz
The Studio
46.9%
3.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
The Bear
9.7%
4.
Michael Urie
Shrinking
1.4%
5.
Bowen Yang
Saturday Night Live
2.1%
6.
Colman Domingo
The Four Seasons
0.6%
7.
Jeff Hiller
Somebody Somewhere
1.1%
Comedy Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
The Studio
The Oner
86.3%
2.
Hacks
A Slippery Slope
4.2%
3.
The Bear
Napkins
7.8%
4.
The Rehearsal
Pilot's Code
1.0%
5.
Mid-Century Modern
Here's to You, Mrs. Schneiderman
0.8%
Comedy Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Hacks
A Slippery Slope
69.9%
2.
The Studio
The Promotion
19.8%
3.
Abbott Elementary
Back to School
4.3%
4.
The Rehearsal
Pilot's Code
2.7%
5.
Somebody Somewhere
AGG
1.7%
6.
What We Do in the Shadows
The Finale
1.5%
Drama
Switching over to drama, Severance is the early favorite to claim three trophies: Best Drama Series, Best Drama Directing ("Cold Harbor"), and Best Drama Writing ("Cold Harbor"). The last time the Apple TV+ sci-fi hit was Emmy-eligible in 2022, it scored 14 nominations, but now it tops all other television programs with a whopping 27 bids. The front-runners in the lead acting races are Matlock for Best Drama Actress (Kathy Bates, who would be the oldest historic champion) and The Pitt for Best Drama Actor (Noah Wyle), while The White Lotus is poised to scoop up Best Drama Supporting Actress (Carrie Coon) and Best Drama Supporting Actor (Walton Goggins).
Below is the initial look at the top drama races:
Drama Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
66.1%
2.
The Pitt
24.9%
3.
The White Lotus
3.7%
4.
The Last of Us
3.4%
5.
Andor
1.5%
6.
Slow Horses
0.1%
7.
Paradise
0.2%
8.
The Diplomat
--
Drama Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Kathy Bates
Matlock
67.2%
2.
Britt Lower
Severance
22.7%
3.
Bella Ramsey
The Last of Us
7.9%
4.
Keri Russell
The Diplomat
1.5%
5.
Sharon Horgan
Bad Sisters
0.6%
Drama Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Noah Wyle
The Pitt
76.1%
2.
Adam Scott
Severance
18.2%
3.
Sterling K. Brown
Paradise
0.4%
4.
Pedro Pascal
The Last of Us
4.9%
5.
Gary Oldman
Slow Horses
0.5%
Drama Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Carrie Coon
The White Lotus
63.6%
2.
Parker Posey
The White Lotus
18.4%
3.
Katherine LaNasa
The Pitt
10.7%
4.
Aimee Lou Wood
The White Lotus
3.8%
5.
Patricia Arquette
Severance
2.8%
6.
Julianne Nicholson
Paradise
0.3%
7.
Natasha Rothwell
The White Lotus
0.4%
Drama Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Walton Goggins
The White Lotus
51.6%
2.
Tramell Tillman
Severance
41.4%
3.
John Turturro
Severance
1.8%
4.
Jason Isaacs
The White Lotus
1.4%
5.
Sam Rockwell
The White Lotus
1.5%
6.
James Marsden
Paradise
1.8%
7.
Zach Cherry
Severance
0.5%
Drama Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
Cold Harbor
71.8%
2.
The Pitt
6:00 P.M.
12.2%
3.
The White Lotus
Amor Fati
4.9%
4.
Severance
Chikhai Bardo
6.4%
5.
Andor
Who Are You
4.2%
6.
The Pitt
7:00 A.M.
0.5%
7.
Slow Horses
Hello Goodbye
--
Drama Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
Cold Harbor
75.8%
2.
The Pitt
2:00 P.M.
8.1%
3.
The White Lotus
Full Moon Party
6.5%
4.
Andor
Welcome to the Rebellion
6.2%
5.
The Pitt
7:00 A.M.
2.6%
6.
Slow Horses
Hello Goodbye
0.8%
Limited Series/TV Movie
As for the longform contests, Adolescence is forecasted to take home five statuettes: Best Limited Series, Best Limited/Movie Supporting Actress (Erin Doherty), Best Limited/Movie Supporting Actor (Owen Cooper), Best Limited/Movie Directing, and Best Limited/Movie Writing. And The Penguin is expected to waddle off with pair of wins for Best Movie/Limited Actress (Cristin Milioti) and Best Movie/Limited Actor (Colin Farrell).
Here's the early scorecard for each major category in Limited/Movie:
Limited Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
91.8%
2.
The Penguin
5.8%
3.
Dying for Sex
0.3%
4.
Black Mirror
1.3%
5.
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
0.9%
Movie/Limited Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Cristin Milioti
The Penguin
66.0%
2.
Michelle Williams
Dying for Sex
28.6%
3.
Cate Blanchett
Disclaimer
2.9%
4.
Rashida Jones
Black Mirror
1.9%
5.
Meghann Fahy
Sirens
0.7%
Movie/Limited Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Colin Farrell
The Penguin
71.0%
2.
Stephen Graham
Adolescence
25.2%
3.
Cooper Koch
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
2.0%
4.
Brian Tyree Henry
Dope Thief
0.5%
5.
Jake Gyllenhaal
Presumed Innocent
1.2%
Movie/Limited Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Erin Doherty
Adolescence
83.2%
2.
Jenny Slate
Dying for Sex
9.3%
3.
Deirdre O'Connell
The Penguin
3.5%
4.
Chloe Sevigny
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
2.7%
5.
Christine Tremarco
Adolescence
0.5%
6.
Ruth Negga
Presumed Innocent
0.8%
Movie/Limited Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Owen Cooper
Adolescence
93.3%
2.
Javier Bardem
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
4.1%
3.
Rob Delaney
Dying for Sex
1.3%
4.
Peter Sarsgaard
Presumed Innocent
0.8%
5.
Ashley Walters
Adolescence
--
6.
Bill Camp
Presumed Innocent
0.4%
Movie/Limited Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
94.7%
2.
The Penguin
Cent'anni
3.6%
3.
Dying for Sex
0.5%
4.
The Penguin
A Great or Little Thing
0.5%
5.
Zero Day
--
6.
Sirens
0.5%
Movie/Limited Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
91.9%
2.
Dying for Sex
2.8%
3.
The Penguin
3.6%
4.
Black Mirror
1.1%
5.
Say Nothing
0.5%
Reality/Variety
Several reality and variety categories will also be handed out at the primetime ceremony, with The Traitors pegged to win Best Competition Program, The Daily Show out front for Best Variety Talk Series, and Last Week Tonight With John Oliver in the lead for Best Variety Scripted Series, Best Variety Series Directing, and Best Variety Series Writing.
Here's how the extremely early odds break down:
Variety Talk Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Daily Show
92.9%
2.
Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3.5%
3.
Jimmy Kimmel Live
3.6%
Variety Scripted Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
88.1%
2.
Saturday Night Live
11.9%
Competition Program
Contender
Odds
1.
The Traitors
90.6%
2.
RuPaul's Drag Race
7.4%
3.
The Amazing Race
0.3%
4.
Survivor
1.0%
5.
Top Chef
0.7%
Variety Series Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
51.4%
2.
The Daily Show
45.6%
3.
Jimmy Kimmel Live
2.5%
4.
Late Show with Stephen Colbert
0.4%
Variety Series Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
85.2%
2.
The Daily Show
9.5%
3.
Saturday Night Live
5.3%
Gold Derby's predictions for the 2025 Emmys are based on the combined forecasts of more than 800 people (and counting), including experts we've polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
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