Former Israeli minister warns ceasefire without clear terms risks future war
Liberman, a former defence and foreign minister, described Iran's final strikes on Israel as 'particularly jarring and bitter,' especially following what he called Israel's 'incredible military achievements' over the past 10 days.
'Instead of unconditional surrender, the world has entered into difficult and tedious negotiations, with the ayatollah regime having no intention of giving up – not on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, not on the production and equipping of ballistic missiles, nor on supporting and financing terrorism in the region and around the world,' he said.
Liberman also cautioned, 'Already at the beginning of the war, I warned that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a wounded lion. A ceasefire without a clear and unambiguous agreement will certainly lead us to another war in two or three years, and under much worse conditions.'
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Middle East Eye
a day ago
- Middle East Eye
Iranian press review: Construction industry hit hard by Afghan workers' deportation
Construction stalls amid mass deportations The mass deportation of undocumented Afghan migrants from Iran has caused serious problems for the country's construction industry, which relies heavily on low-wage Afghan labour. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported that daily returns of Afghans from Iran - which launched a mass deportation campaign earlier this year - had surged from around 5,000 to 30,000 since the start of the war with Israel. It noted that most of those returning had been forcibly deported. Iranian authorities say nearly 800,000 Afghans have been expelled since the campaign began in March. On 7 July, the UNHCR reported that nearly 450,000 Afghans had returned from Iran since the beginning of June. Local media quoted Iraj Rahbar, head of the Tehran Real Estate Developers Association, saying that the removal of Afghan workers has lowered productivity and led to the suspension of some building projects. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Rahbar said that about 50 percent of construction workers in Tehran were Afghan, working as general labourers, builders, cement workers and stonemasons. He added that many employers preferred to hire Afghan workers because they accepted lower wages and were not insured, as they lacked legal immigration documents. Official Iranian figures show that more than five million Afghan migrants live in Iran. Some Iranian sources have accused Afghan refugees of spying for Israel. Spike in arrests of Iranians in the US Since Donald Trump returned to office, arrests and deportations of Iranian migrants in the United States have risen sharply. The number of arrests surged in the days following Washington's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. Iran: Anti-Afghan sentiment is on the rise Read More » According to a report by BBC Persian, deportations of Iranians have increased more than tenfold since the start of Trump's new term and the rollout of his immigration policies, compared with the previous six years. From January to the end of June 2025, 92 Iran-born migrants were deported from the US. About a quarter of all Iranians arrested in the first half of the year were detained in the four days after the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities during Israel's war on Iran. The report also notes that while 76 Iranians were arrested in the first 20 days of June, that number jumped to 303 in just four days following the US attack. In contrast, only nine Iranians were arrested in June of last year. Journalists face layoffs and pay cuts after war The Tehran Province Journalists' Association (TPJA), one of Iran's most influential media unions, has reported a rise in job losses and salary cuts among journalists following Israel's 12-day war on Iran. According to the association, more than 150 journalists from various media outlets, many of them well known, were laid off after the ceasefire, as economic pressures from the war took hold. By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More » Employers cited 'cost reduction', 'financial restructuring' and 'force consolidation' as reasons for the dismissals. News outlets affected include Rahpardakht, KhabarOnline, Eqtesad News, TejaratNews, Donyaye Eqtesad, EqtesadOnline, Eco-Iran, and Shahrvand. These organisations also implemented salary cuts for many remaining staff. The TPJA condemned the wave of layoffs, pointing out that many of the affected journalists had continued working during the war, reporting on conditions despite the dangers. In its report, the association said: 'While many journalists took on the responsibility of providing information with courage and commitment during the days of crisis, after the war they were met with a wave of ingratitude, job insecurity, reduced professional protection, and rushed decisions to cut wages and staff.' Environmental activists die in forest fires Khabat Amini has become the third environmental activist to die after wildfires swept through the Abidar forests. Amini was one of several volunteers who suffered serious burns while trying to contain the fire in the Abidar mountain area of western Iran last Thursday. He died four days later, on Monday, at Kowsar Hospital in Sanandaj. Before him, Chiako Yousefinejad, an activist from Sanandaj, and Hamid Moradi also succumbed to burns injuries. At least three other volunteers were severely injured and remain in the hospital. Despite the risks environmental activists face in Iran, including the threat of arrest and lengthy prison sentences, the Kurdistan Provincial Government has declared two days of public mourning in the province. Jamal Qaderi, an activist with the Chia Environmental Association in Kurdistan, criticised the government for failing to provide the resources needed to fight such fires. He told the Sharq daily: 'Government institutions are responsible for preventing fires in the Zagros forests, including in Kurdistan, and for putting them out by setting up and deploying air bases… We cannot tolerate another disaster like this.' *Iranian press review is a digest of news reports not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye.
Arabian Post
2 days ago
- Arabian Post
Shamkhani Oil Empire Slapped With Record US Sanctions
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai The U. S. Treasury has placed sweeping sanctions on a sprawling oil‑trading and shipping network linked to Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, whose father, Ali Shamkhani, serves as adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The action, imposed on 30 July 2025, marks the most extensive Iran‑related sanctions package since 2018, covering more than 115 individuals, entities and vessels. At the heart of the measures is Shamkhani's maritime empire, comprising 15 shipping firms, 52 vessels and 53 entities operating across 17 countries from Panama to Hong Kong. Officials contend the network funnels tens of billions of dollars in revenue from Iranian and Russian oil sales, largely to buyers in China, using aliases, front companies and falsified documentation to conceal ownership and origin. ADVERTISEMENT Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the network as a prime example of elite Iranian circles using state influence for private gain while empowering Tehran's destabilising agenda, asserting that this is 'the largest to‑date since the Trump Administration implemented our campaign of maximum pressure on Iran'. Hossein—known in industry as 'H', 'Hector' or, in travel documents, 'Hugo Hayek'—is said to travel internationally using foreign passports and operate from the UAE and beyond. The Treasury report underscores his use of a web of shell enterprises and shipping registries in jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Singapore, the UAE, Italy and Switzerland to obscure true control of assets. The network's operations align with broader patterns observed in Iran's so‑called 'ghost fleet.' Surveillance reports have documented vessels switching flags, deactivating AIS transponders, engaging in ship‑to‑ship oil transfers, blending cargoes mid‑voyage and falsifying bills of lading to evade detection. Such tactics enable covert deliveries to Chinese 'teapot' refineries and other end‑users despite global sanctions. The sanctions also extend to six firms based in India, accused of transacting petroleum and petrochemical goods with Iran worth approximately $220 million. U. S. officials warned these sanctions could strain trade relations and signal serious repercussions for firms ignoring sanctions diplomacy ][5]). While the sanctions are intended to sever the flow of funds financing Iran's nuclear, ballistic missile and proxy capabilities, U. S. officials stopped short of declaring they will destabilise global oil markets. Still, they emphasised that the network's disruption would make it 'much more difficult' for Tehran to covertly maintain oil sales via front companies and intermediaries. Ali Shamkhani, previously sanctioned by the U. S. in 2020, remains a key figure in Iran's security establishment. Serving as a naval officer, former defence minister and head of the Supreme National Security Council until May 2023, he assumed the role of adviser to the supreme leader thereafter. His son's oil empire is widely seen as an extension of those elite institutional networks. Industry observers say the sanctions package highlights the increasing difficulty in enforcing international measures against Iran's evolving evasion networks. The complexity, scale and global reach of Shamkhani's operations underscore the challenge of identifying and intercepting entities that operate invisibly across jurisdictional lines.
Middle East Eye
2 days ago
- Middle East Eye
While Iran stalls, Azerbaijan and Israel push forward
In his posthumously published memoirs, Iranian political heavyweight Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani recalled his meetings with Heydar Aliyev, then president of Azerbaijan, during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in November 1993. According to Rafsanjani, Aliyev was demanding that Iran provide military support to Azerbaijan in the conflict with Armenia. Rafsanjani wrote: 'One of his constant remarks was that Iran should seize the opportunity of the war with the Armenians to expand its presence in Azerbaijan. At times, he even mentioned that Azerbaijan belonged to Iran, urging us to come, defend it, and take control.' He added: 'When we were in Nakhchivan, he said similar things. He argued that if Iran brought Azerbaijan under its influence, it would shake Russia's dominance over the entire Caucasus.' Thirty-two years later, the tables have turned. No longer do Azerbaijani officials seek Tehran's involvement in Baku's affairs. Now it is Iranian politicians who seem unsure how to manage relations with a small but assertive neighbour. A neighbour that gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but was once part of Iran before being ceded to the Russian Empire through the treaties of Golestan (1813) and Turkmenchay (1828). New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Over the past decade, the power dynamic between the two countries has shifted significantly. Some Azerbaijani figures and media outlets are now even calling for the annexation of parts of Iranian territory. Meanwhile, Iran's recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States has deepened the political divide. In Tehran concerns are mounting over Azerbaijan's expanding military and intelligence ties with Israel. Where did the Israeli drones come from? Right after Israel's war on Iran ended, residents near Iran's northwestern border reported sightings of Israeli drones entering from the direction of Azerbaijan. These accounts were later echoed by Iran's state broadcaster, whose director is appointed by the supreme leader. The reports suggested that drones used in attacks on cities including Tehran, Tabriz and Urmia have crossed into Iran from Azerbaijan. The claims drew enough attention that foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei was asked about them during a news conference. 'We shared the cases with the neighbouring countries, and we are following up on this issue,' he said. A few days later, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian stated that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had assured him that Israel had not used Azerbaijani territory to launch attacks. This reassurance did not convince many in Iran. Neither the media nor political experts accepted it. A Tehran-based professor of international relations, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the fact that both the foreign ministry and the president discussed the matter shows how serious it is for Iran. 'If Iran wasn't sure about Israeli involvement from the Azerbaijani border, it wouldn't have brought it up at such a high level,' the expert said. He also argued that Pezeshkian's comments about Aliyev's assurances show the failure of Iran's foreign policy in the Caucasus. 'What Pezeshkian said is just diplomatic language. In reality, Iran hasn't known how to deal with Azerbaijan since the last Karabakh war. Since then, Azerbaijan has gone from being a friendly - or at least neutral - country to a quiet but serious threat.' He pointed to high-level meetings between Azerbaijani and Israeli officials as further evidence of close collaboration between Baku and Tel Aviv. Israel on Iran's doorstep After breaking from the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan first grew close to Turkey, Iran's regional rival. Later, it also deepened its military and economic ties with Israel, which Iran sees as its main enemy. In recent years, Azerbaijan has become one of the leading suppliers of oil and gas to Israel, while importing advanced Israeli military and intelligence equipment. According to some reports, Israel provided nearly 70 percent of Azerbaijan's military arsenal between 2016 and 2020. Now, Azerbaijan is also working with the new Syrian government, which has shifted away from Iran after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. 'With no clear strategy in the Caucasus, Iran is now watching as Tel Aviv moves closer to its borders,' the expert said. He stressed that a new regional alliance between Israel, Syria and Azerbaijan could soon bring Israel to Iran's doorstep through Turkey. The only obstacle is the 43km stretch of land between Armenia and Iran that links Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan. Control over this pass, also known as the Meghri or Zangezur corridor, has been a key demand from both Azerbaijan and Turkey since the 44-day Karabakh war in 2020. If war breaks out again between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Iran fears this corridor could fall into Azerbaijani hands. The expert warned that Azerbaijan is not just aligning itself with Israel, but it is also copying its military strategies. 'In recent years, Azerbaijan has favoured short but intense wars. This approach has helped it reach its goals. That's why another war with Armenia seems likely. In the long run, Iran should prepare for potential military pressure from its northwest. Even now, we're hearing louder voices from Azerbaijan calling for parts of Iranian territory,' he said. Demand for separating Iran's regions The expert was referring to increasing calls from some Azerbaijani figures for the separation of Iran's Turkish-speaking regions. Pan-Turkists refer to those areas as 'South Azerbaijan.' These include the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and even parts of Iran's Kurdish regions. Supporters of a Greater Kurdistan and Greater Armenia also claim some of these same areas. After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel Read More » One of the latest campaigns promoting separation came after the 12-day war from the media outlet Araznews on X. The campaign, in Persian and Turkish, called for unity between the Turks of Tabriz in Iran, Baku in Azerbaijan, and Ankara in Turkey. Many participants shared videos of themselves flashing the hand sign of the far-right Grey Wolves group. In another example, Azerbaijani news outlet Caliber ran an English-language report describing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the "main enemy of the Azeris". A retired Iranian diplomat, who worked in the foreign ministry in the years after Azerbaijan gained independence, said these tactics started soon after Azerbaijan lost the first Karabakh war (1988-94). 'Once Baku realised it couldn't drag Iran into a military conflict with Armenia, it quickly turned to Iran's enemy, Israel,' said the former diplomat. 'There were concerns, but Azerbaijan wasn't seen as a major player in military, political, or economic terms, so Iran didn't develop a clear policy toward it.' That calculation has since changed. 'Active neutrality' Azerbaijan has built strong military ties with Israel and boosted its economy through oil and gas exports. But according to the diplomat, Iran's approach towards Azerbaijan has not shifted. Iran has called its stance 'active neutrality' in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia - a policy that, the former diplomat argues, has now backfired. 'Iran is paying the price for this so-called neutrality. It may have made sense early on, but as Azerbaijan grew closer to Israel, it ended up hurting Iran. In reality, it wasn't neutrality, it was passivity.' He also dismissed the Iranian government's claim that its opposition to the Zangezur Corridor is about preserving trade routes to Europe through Armenia. Trade data from 2023 shows Iran exported just $412m worth of goods to Armenia and imported only $45m. 'With no clear strategy in the Caucasus, Iran is now watching as Tel Aviv moves closer to its borders' - Professor of international relations, Tehran Instead, he pointed to two deeper reasons for Iran's stance: first, its long-standing policy of aligning with Russian interests in the region; second, its fear of Israel getting too close to its borders. 'The establishment's leaders never expected to face a security threat from Azerbaijan. They focused on expanding their influence in Arab countries and didn't see this coming. That's where they got caught off guard.' While he declined to confirm whether Israel used Azerbaijani airspace in the recent attacks, the diplomat said Azerbaijan's use of Israeli-made drones, surveillance tech, and defence systems is clear proof of how far Israeli influence has reached. Right now, he added, Iran has no choice but to engage in diplomacy with Azerbaijan. But in the long run, that may only make things worse and give Israel another pressure point to use against Tehran. 'Whether or not Israel launched attacks from Azerbaijani territory, the real issue is that Iran knows it's vulnerable on its northwest border. The question now is whether the high-ranking decision makers will act, or continue down the same failed path of 'active neutrality',' the diplomat said.
