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Business Standard
22 minutes ago
- Business Standard
China's economy shows signs of strain in July, retail sales lose momentum
China's economy, after six months of steady growth, showed renewed signs of strain in July as momentum weakened across key sectors, weighed down by the prolonged property slump and mounting global uncertainties. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), headline indicators such as retail sales and industrial output slowed in July. The report said that China's retail sales increased by 3.7 per cent year-on-year in July, slowing from 4.8 per cent in June, based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial output also lost momentum, expanding 5.7 per cent in July, compared with 6.8 per cent in the previous month. The SCMP further highlighted the property sector's continuing weakness. Property investment fell 12 per cent between January and July, worsening from an 11.2 per cent drop in the first half of the year. Growing internal competition An intensifying competition across key industries in China has been squeezing profit margins, a phenomenon described as 'involution', a cycle where firms work harder, cut prices, or expand output, but without expanding gains in productivity or profitability. Beijing has been stepping up efforts to curb excess supply, the report said. As reported earlier by Business Standard, manufacturers in China's electric vehicle sector have been caught in relentless price wars, slashing rates to outpace rivals. This race to the bottom has not only eaten into earnings but also drawn criticism from trading partners concerned about its spillover effects on global markets. An uneasy calm in trade tensions Trade tensions between China and the US have been fluctuating over the last few months. While the situation has eased after US President Donald Trump announced a second 90-day pause on tariffs, the two countries were locked in a heated tariff war earlier this year. In April, China raised its levies on US goods to 125 per cent after Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 per cent. A month later, Beijing and Washington reached a mutual agreement on a 90-day pause. Under the temporary truce, US tariffs on Chinese goods were to fall from 145 per cent to 30 per cent, while China's tariffs on American goods were to drop from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. This truce was extended for another 90 days on August 11. After India tariffs focus shifts to China Trump recently imposed a 25 per cent tariff on India, along with an additional 25 per cent penalty for purchasing oil from Russia. Like India, China is also a major importer of Russian crude. The secondary tariffs on India have shifted attention to Beijing, raising questions over whether China could face similar penalties in the future.
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Business Standard
22 minutes ago
- Business Standard
India facing tough choices in responding to steep Trump tariffs: GTRI
India is facing tough choices in responding to steep US tariffs - from negotiating or retaliating to diversifying export markets or offering trade concessions like ending Russian oil imports - but each option carries its own mix of benefits and risks, think tank GTRI said on Friday. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that India marks its Independence Day this year under the shadow of a bruising trade confrontation with Washington. The Trump administration's decision to slap a 50 per cent country-specific tariff on most Indian goods, on top of existing most favoured nation duties, has thrust India into a strategic dilemma that could reshape its trade, energy, and diplomatic positioning. "For New Delhi, the choices ahead are stark - negotiate, retaliate, diversify markets, or trade concessions such as ending purchases of Russian oil for tariff relief. Each option carries a different mix of gains and risks," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said. He added that India will require structural reforms and aggressive trade diplomacy to absorb the high tariffs and diversify the country's exports to Europe, ASEAN, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. "Gains in the first two years might recover only $1015 billion of the $50 billion lost," he said. If US tariffs would raise consumer prices and unemployment in America, he said, domestic political pressure could force the Trump administration a cut to around 15 per cent for all countries. "India's best role here is to quietly highlight the tariffs' cost to American voters," Srivastava said. He added that in an era when economic power is used as a weapon, survival isn't about avoiding confrontation. "It's about picking the right battles, anticipating the next move, and playing for the long win," he said. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Mint
22 minutes ago
- Mint
Business as Usual: India buys 2 mn bpd Russian oil in August
New Delhi, Aug 15 (PTI) India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. Imports from Russia at 2 million bpd were up from 1.6 million bpd in July. The increase in Russian flow was at the cost of purchases from Iraq, which declined to 730,000 bpd in August from 907 bpd in July, and Saudi Arabia which fell to 526,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd last month. The US was the fifth largest supplier at 264,000 bpd, according to Kpler. "Russian crude imports into India have so far remained resilient in August, even after the Trump administration's tariff announcement in late July 2025," said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modeling) at Kpler. "But the stability we're seeing now is mostly a result of timing - August cargoes were locked in back in June and early July, well before any policy shifts." What's showing up in the data today reflects decisions made weeks ago, he said, adding any real adjustment in flows - whether due to tariffs, payment issues, or shipping friction - will only start becoming visible from late September through October arrivals. He noted that there's been no government directive to cut Russian volumes. "So from a policy standpoint, it's business as usual". Arvinder Singh Sahney, chairman of Indian Oil Corporation - India's largest oil firm - too said the government has not given any instruction to go slow on purchases from Moscow in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's decision to slap an additional 25 per cent tariff on US imports from India -- raising the overall duty to 50 per cent -- as a penalty for the country's continued imports of Russian oil. "Neither we are being told to buy nor told not to buy," he said. "We are not making extra effort to either increase or decrease the share of Russian crude." Russian oil accounted for about 22 per cent of the crude processed by IOC in April-June and the volumes are expected to remain the same in the near future, he said. Separately, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) Director (Finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta on an investor call said imports from Russia had declined last month from 34 per cent of overall imports in June quarter, as discounts on it had narrowed to USD 1.5 per barrel. "As long as there is no new sanction on Russian oil, our procurement strategy will be 30-35 per cent of Russian crude for the remaining year," he had said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, had swiftly substituted market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian oil, which accounted for less than 0.2 per cent of India's imports before the war, now makes up 35-40 per cent of the country's crude intake. The discounts however have narrowed from a high of USD 40 per barrel to just USD 1.5 last month. Discounts this month have risen to over USD 2 per barrel. Ritolia said Indian refiners are watching the situation closely. "There's growing interest in sourcing more barrels from the US, West Africa, and Latin America, not necessarily because they are walking away from Russian supply, but to hedge against possible disruptions. It's a shift in mindset - from margin maximization to energy security and logistical risk management." He however hastened to add that buying more cargoes from elsewhere in the world does not mean Indian refiners are replacing Russian barrels. "Crude buying is a continuous, complex process-driven by refinery configuration, grade compatibility, and economics. Indian refiners still need to source 60–65 per cent of their crude from non-Russian suppliers, and that mix hasn't suddenly changed. What we're seeing is added flexibility, not a deliberate pivot. Until there's a clear policy change or sustained shift in trade economics, Russian flows remain part of India's crude basket and talk of replacement is premature." Sahney said at no time was import of crude oil from Russia sanctioned and so India continued to purchase keeping in mind economic considerations. "Such purchases will continue unless sanctions are imposed," he said. "We have not got any instruction (from the government) to either increase or decrease purchase. We are doing business as usual." About talk of refiners being asked to increase purchases from the US in a bid to placate Trump, IOC Chairman said, "Neither are we being told to buy more nor are we told to buy less from US or any other destination. Economic considerations dictate our actions."
