Germany signals policy shift on Israel as ‘unjustified' war on Gaza rages on

The Hindu

2 days ago

'What the Israeli Army is doing in the Gaza Strip, I no longer understand the goal…To harm the civilian population in such a way can no longer be justified as a fight against terrorism,' German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on May 26. It was the first time since the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, that led to the killing of around 1,200 people, that a top German politician had criticised Israeli operations in Gaza. Given Germany's Second World War history and its historical relations with Israel, this was a noticeable shift in its tone.
The death toll in Gaza has now passed 62,000. Since the end of May, a large number of people have been killed or injured while trying to obtain food and medical aid from any of the four Israel-controlled Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) sites. Between May 27 and July 31 this year, over 800 Palestinians have been killed mostly by the Israeli military, while attempting to obtain food as per the United Nations. Human Rights Watch has called this a serious violation of international law and a war crime.
On July 28, Germany announced airlifting humanitarian aid into Gaza with Jordan. As of August 14, Bundeswehr planes had airdropped 192 tonnes of aid via a total of 18 flights. Other countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Belgium, Canada, have also been involved with airdrops. According to the UN Relief Works and Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), airdrops are ineffective and cost 100 times more than the trucks while carrying much less aid. It is estimated that one pallet of airdrop can carry 11-14 tons, while a single truck can carry similar or more tonnage multiple times a day.
'It is not very effective, even the German government has acknowledged it. But for the time being, when Israel has blocked all land routes, it is still saving some lives. The larger message being sent is that Germany is ready to invest money to ensure the well-being of Palestinians,' said Dr. Markus Loewe, co-ordinator for research on the Middle East and North Africa at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
Dr. Muriel Asseburg, Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), calls the airdrops more of a symbolic measure than one to alleviate the situation on the ground in Gaza.
Critical voices in Germany
Since October 7, 2023, most Western countries have refrained from criticising the actions of the Israeli government, but the tide seems to have changed over the last few months. Most of the G-7 countries have criticised the Israeli government's policies, with France, the U.K. and Canada even agreeing to recognise the Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September. While Germany has made no such proclamation, it has reiterated its stand on a two-state solution.
On August 8, Mr. Merz announced that Germany would not sell weapons to Israel that could be used in Gaza Strip till further notice. This decision came soon after the Israeli Security Cabinet's decision to take over Gaza City. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed it was 'the best way to end the war speedily'. This decision was promptly condemned by the United Nations and many countries around the world.
'German policy toward Israel remains unchanged. But we cannot supply weapons to a conflict that is being attempted to be resolved exclusively by military means, that can claim hundreds of thousands of lives,' Mr. Merz said in a TV interview on August 10.
According to Ms. Asseburg, Germany's critical stance against Israel has been prompted by multiple factors, with the current Israeli government being the most important one.
'The Chancellor and the Foreign Minister have been in close contact with their Israeli counterparts. However, there is a growing sense that these interactions and pleas to address the humanitarian situation and find a way to end the war are not making progress. Using the bilateral relations to change the situation has not worked. Secondly, public opinion in Germany has been demanding a different stance on Israel and Gaza,' Ms. Asseburg said.
As per a recent nationwide Deutschlandtrend survey, 66% of Germans want their government to put more pressure on Israel to change its conduct, 63% believe Israel's military response has gone too far, and 73% feel Israel's actions impacting Palestinian civilians are unjustified. On the question of limiting weapons delivery to Israel, 43% are in favour of limiting arms exports, while 30% want a complete halt. This trend also reflects the growing number of protests happening in Germany calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, including a 60,000-strong protest march in Berlin in June.
However, Mr. Merz has maintained that his decisions were not influenced by public pressure but prompted more by what he was hearing from experts, including former Israeli intelligence experts who were critical of Israeli government's decision to conduct military operations in Gaza City.
According to Mr. Loewe, all Western governments have taken a critical position vis-à-vis Israel in the last six months, with Germany coming in later. 'Given the history, the German government is cautious about criticising Israel too openly. But it has reached a point where the current actions of the Israeli government have forced Germany to express more clearly that it cannot accept everything that the Israeli government does,' Mr. Loewe said.
A recent case in point is Israel's controversial plan to build 3,400 new settlements in West Bank on August 14 that was criticised by the Federal Foreign Office.
'The construction of settlements is in violation of international law and of relevant UN Security Council resolutions, making it more difficult to achieve a negotiated two-state solution and to end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, as called for by the ICJ,' noted a release from the Federal Foreign Office. The Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, had told earlier this year that Germany's friendship and responsibility towards Israel 'do not mean that we must stand by and watch the actions of the Israeli government without criticism'.
Opposition politicians such as the co-chair of the Greens party, Franziska Brantner, told a local daily, 'It is important to differentiate between Israel and the Israeli government. Mr. Netanyahu is not Israel. Mr. Netanyahu has never been in favour of a peaceful solution with the Palestinians. And he has far-right Ministers in his Cabinet.'
Political backlash
Mr. Merz's announcement of Germany limiting its weapons sales to Israel got a lot of criticism from his own ranks. The sister party of the Christian Democrats (CDU) from the Bavarian region, the Christian Social Union (CSU), claimed they were not consulted in the decision-making. Speaking to a local tabloid, CSU regional group leader Alexander Hoffmann said, 'The CSU was not involved in this decision and we consider it worrying. This would be a departure from decades of foreign policy continuity towards Israel and as such, at least in need of explanation.'
However, this pushback will not change Mr. Merz's decision, noted Ms. Asseburg. 'There has been resistance from his party and its sister party, the CSU. But it is not enough for this decision to be reversed. Mr. Merz has been somewhat successful in mending fences with the CSU, and even though they differ on this matter, he will not reverse his decision,' Ms. Asseburg said.
Mr. Loewe also agreed that Mr. Merz will not reverse his decision. 'But at the same time, he will think twice before taking any further steps. One has to consider that Mr. Merz leads a government with a conservative party in lead, where some factions are very conservative – especially the Bavarian sister party CSU. They are reluctant to criticise Israel,' he noted. However, the ruling government's coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD) has supported this call by Mr. Merz.
In addition to senior politicians, even the youth wing of CDU put up a question on its Instagram channel, 'Reason of state abolished? A break with the principles of policy,' referring to Germany's 'Staatsraison' or 'reason of state'.
In 2008, the then-Chancellor Angela Merkel had declared that Israel's security was Germany's 'reason of state,' underlining Germany's special historical responsibility after the Holocaust that led to the killing of over 6 million Jews by the Nazi regime in the Second World War.
Weak leverage in Europe
Despite all the critical statements from Germany and many Western nations, the Israeli government has not changed its tactics. On July 29, the European Commission proposed partially suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement to prevent Israel from participating in EU research programs such as Horizon Europe due to concerns about Israel's human rights violations in Gaza.
According to IDOS's Mr. Loewe, this move will not have any impact. 'There is very little Europe can do to make the Israeli government change its mind. They are just considering this ban because they have nothing else that is powerful enough to push the needle,' Mr. Loewe said.
Ms. Asseburg believes that international pressure can only work if Europe presents a united front and is not being pulled apart.
'Of course, the U.S. is crucial in that regard. The Israeli Prime Minister has the backing of the U.S. in expanding its operations in Gaza and pursuing a military approach. Also, the Trump administration is not clear on a two-state solution, which allows Mr. Netanyahu to pursue his current stance,' Ms. Asseburg said.
Mr. Loewe believes only the U.S. can put pressure on the Israeli government to change the situation in Gaza. But he does not see the current Trump government taking any action in that regard.
'Only in 1991, when George Bush Sr was the U.S. President, did the U.S. put pressure on Israel to join negotiations with not just other Arab partners but also with the Palestinians. This was the groundwork for the Oslo Accords,' Mr. Loewe said.
The Oslo Accords (1993 and 1995) were a set of agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) to establish a peace process for the Israel-Palestine conflict through a mutually negotiated two-state solution. While the deadline to achieve this was set to May 1999, the 1996 election of Benjamin Netanyahu, an ardent critic of the Oslo Accords, effectively ended the two-state solution negotiation. Mr. Netanyahu continues to categorically reject the two-state solution to date.
Germany-Israel relations
While Germany has been taking an increasingly critical stand against the Israeli government, experts noted that this disagreement will not alter Germany-Israel diplomatic relations. In the TV interview in which Mr. Merz announced the decision to limit weapons delivery to Israel, he also reiterated that the foundational principles of the Israel-Germany relationship have not changed and will remain unchanged.
'When it comes to diplomatic efforts, Germany will back Israel if it comes to the question of its existence in the world – Staatsraison. Germany will be more critical of singular decisions taken by the Israeli government and continue to search for a solution to the war in Gaza. It will continue to hint that many Israeli people, Israeli NGOs and former military heads are also criticising the war in Gaza,' Mr. Loewe said, stressing that Germany can stand by the State of Israel, but can still be critical about its government's policies.
For Ms. Asseburg, the far-right wing of the Israeli government is the problem. 'The extreme right-wing government in Israel makes it very difficult for Germany to maintain close relations and convincingly balance what is called the historical responsibility towards Israel on the one hand and Germany's commitment to international law, multi-lateralism and human rights. The contradictions are increasing, making it difficult to maintain the same level of relations that Germany has had with Israel in the past.'