PSG vs Inter Champions League final: Historical betting trends that just might pay off

New York Times

2 days ago

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The 2025 Champions League final looms, and with it, the chance to lay carefully considered bets on club football's biggest game.
We've taken a look back through the last 10 finals in search of information we can use to our advantage. From the time of first goal trends to foul counts and the mystical forces that influence our sport (just kidding…ish), let us arm you with the facts you need to succeed.
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In 2016, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid could not be separated after a gruelling 120-minute final. A penalty shootout ensued, and Los Colchoneros' legendary full-back, Juanfran, missed the deciding kick, prompting him to tearfully approach the fans and beg for forgiveness.
It was brutal.
Fortunately, no one has had to endure such heartbreak since, as each of the next eight finals have been decided inside 90 minutes, as was the 2015 bout.
When betting on finals, there's a key distinction between selecting a team to win (in 90 minutes) and to lift the trophy. Naturally, the odds are shorter for the latter bet, as it gives you more time to win the bet — but recent history suggests that a buffer isn't needed.
You'll see odds of 5/1 for either team to win in extra-time or 9/2 for either to win on penalties, but just one of the last 10 finals has gone the distance, suggesting the ultimate value lies in simply picking a team to win in normal time.
Five of the last 10 finals have seen the first goal scored in the second half, while the other five have seen an early breakthrough. At surface level, that's an even split.
But it's important to note that four of those five second-half breakthroughs have come in the last five years. Bayern Munich (2020), Real Madrid (2022), Manchester City (2023) and Madrid again (2024) have all had to wait till at least the 59th minute to take the lead.
Particularly interesting is the 2024 final, where Madrid were heavy favourites against Borussia Dortmund but still needed 74 minutes to score — and it was right-back Dani Carvajal with a header from a corner! This backs up the notion that these finals are, by nature, cagey.
If that trend continues, no first half goals at 15/8 is a great bet. There's also a more cautious version of that selection in the form of half time draw at 11/10, which builds in the safety of a goal for each but still wins if it's 0-0.
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Unsurprisingly, finalists get a bit antsy when they're losing. After all, it's a literal ticking-clock situation.
That impatience often manifests in the form of fouls. Six of the nine teams that lost in normal time (so 2016 excluded) committed the most fouls — and some of those counts were really high.
For example, Inter committed 17 fouls in their 1-0 loss to Man City in 2023; Liverpool racked up 13 and 18 against Madrid in 2022 and 2019, respectively; and Juventus committed 23 in their 4-1 defeat to Madrid in 2017.
You can use this to good effect in both pre-match or in-play betting. You can select the team you think will lose to commit the most fouls in both halves (PSG 7/2, Inter 13/5), or you can wait for the first goal to go in, then bet on the losing team's foul count to soar.
Jurgen Klopp looks back to Sergio Ramos' 'brutal' foul on Mo Salah during Liverpool's Champions League final vs. Real Madrid in 2018 👀 pic.twitter.com/QzosoB1yqG
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) October 31, 2024
It'll be interesting to see if that 2023 final is indicative of anything. Inter went behind to a possession-dominant side in Man City and racked up 17 fouls. This year, they'll face a possession-dominant side in PSG, who are favoured to win.
Inter to commit 16-plus fouls, repeating history, is as long as 6/1. You can even drop that figure to 12-plus fouls and get even odds.
For the record, there's no such thing as an away team in a Champions League final, but one team is always categorised as one.
It means absolutely nothing, and yet, seven of the last nine winners in normal time were technically the away side. Is that a good omen for Inter? That's all the encouragement some bettors need for a fun flutter.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Rodri: David Ramos / Getty Images)