It's 'bone dry' in Florida and approaching cold front won't help drought. See forecast, wildfires
Another cold front is on its way, although temperatures will get warmer before it gets here.
The cooler temps won't last long. Expect above-normal temperatures to return by the Easter weekend, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
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Cooler temperatures are expected to arrive Wednesday and Thursday.
While the front may bring a few sprinkles to some areas tonight, an elevated fire danger will continue today across a large portion of the state.
"We will be bone dry over the next seven days, with no rainfall expected," the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said.
As of Tuesday morning, April 15, there were 57 wildfires burning across Florida.
South and Southwest Florida are among the areas seeing the worst drought conditions.
The average statewide drought index increased Sunday to 360.
The National Weather Service has not issued any red flag warnings as of Tuesday morning.
However, very low humidity combined with dry soil and vegetation is creating an elevated fire danger.
"Fires may quickly become uncontrolled under these conditions," the National Weather Service Jacksonville warned.
A red flag warning is issued when "critical fire weather conditions" are in place.
"A red flag warning means warm temperatures, very low humidity, and stronger winds are expected to combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger," the National Weather Service said.
Forecasters said residents under a red flag warning should follow this advice:
If you are allowed to burn in your area, all burn barrels must be covered with a weighted metal cover, with holes no larger than 3/4 of an inch.
Do not throw cigarettes or matches out of a moving vehicle. They may ignite dry grass on the side of the road.
Extinguish all outdoor fires properly. Drown fires with plenty of water and stir to make sure everything is cold to the touch. Dunk charcoal in water until cold. Do not throw live charcoal on the ground and leave it.
Never leave a fire unattended. Sparks or embers can blow into leaves or grass, ignite a fire, and quickly spread.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the largest wildfires burning in Florida as of April 11 were (data is updated every Friday):
East Marsh Fire: One mile west of DeLand. 3,377 acres. Now 100% contained.
Fernadez Fire: Four miles northeast of Lake Kathryn. 565 acres. Now 100% contained.
Red Horse Fire: Fire started on private land seven miles northwest of Bowling Green. 390 acres. Now 100% contained.
"Wildfire names are generally based on the geographic location of the fire or a nearby geographic feature," according to Tim Brown, communications manager with the Florida Forest Service in an email.
"For example, the '344 Fire' was due to its location near 344 Street."
While a few sprinkles are possible as the cold front moves through, don't count on anything helping drought conditions seen through most of Florida's peninsula. The National Weather Service Tampa Bay warned "We will be bone dry over the next seven days with no rainfall expected."
Forecast for Tuesday, April 15:
Western Panhandle, Pensacola: Sunny. High 77. Low 55.
Central Panhandle, Tallahassee: Increasing clouds. High 84. Low 50.
Northeast Florida, Jacksonville: Sunny. High 86. Low 58.
East Coast, Central Florida from Daytona Beach to Stuart: Sunny. High 86. Low 63.
South Florida, West Palm Beach, Naples: Sunny. High 81. Low 67.
Southwest Florida, Fort Myers to Sarasota: Sunny. High 75. Low 68.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida was 367 Sunday. The drought index uses a scale from 0, which is very wet, to 800, which is very dry.
As of Monday, April 14, there were 19 Florida counties with a mean Keetch-Byram Drought Index over 500, which means drought or increased fire danger.
Counties with drought index over 600, which is associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurring:
Hendry: 605
Lee: 612
Counties with drought index in the 500s:
Broward: 543
Charlotte: 573
Collier: 597
DeSoto: 535
Glades: 562
Hardee: 574
Highlands: 504
Lake: 549
Manatee: 554
Martin: 512
Miami-Dade: 543
Monroe: 559
Palm Beach: 587
Pasco: 527
Sarasota: 564
Sumter: 536
Volusia: 512
Another 12 of Florida's 67 counties have index numbers in the 400s.
Five counties are within 25 points of hitting 500:
Hernando: 490
Hillsborough: 497
Orange: 491
Polk: 498
Seminole: 489
Here's an explanation of what the Keetch-Byram Drought Index numbers mean, according to the Wildland Fire Assessment System.
0-200: Soil moisture and large-class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation.
200-400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity.
400-600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively.
600-800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
According to the Florida Forest Service, burn bans are in place for the following counties:
Charlotte
Collier
Glades
Hendry
Highlands
Lake
Sarasota
The open burning of yard debris is always prohibited in these counties:
Duval
Hillsborough
Orange
Pinellas
Yet another weak cold front is expected to move through Florida April 15-16, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay. While chances of rain are low, the front is expected to bring a "reinforcing shot of drier and slightly cooler air" for the middle of the week.
It won't last long. Temperatures will climb the latter half of the week and into the weekend.
We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Florida brush fire threat and drought: Any rain? See forecast
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