Manchester City vs Aston Villa odds: Is Joško Gvardiol Pep Guardiola's secret weapon?

New York Times

21-04-2025

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The Premier League may have robbed us of a thrilling title race and dogged relegation battle, but it has delivered on the Champions League qualification front. Five points separate seventh-place Chelsea from third-place Newcastle – and there's no guarantee it'll remain that way after the mid-week slate.
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Fortunately, the fixture gods have pitted two contenders against each other on an otherwise uneventful Tuesday evening: Aston Villa versus Manchester City. The Villans sit sixth in the table on 57 points, trailing Nottingham Forest only by goal differential, while the wounded Citizens are currently fourth on 58 points.
Due to injuries and various transfer endeavours, we aren't expecting a repeat of last Christmas Eve's fiery 2-1 showdown. So, we've assessed each side's chances and their potential betting value…
In the latter stages of 2024, City resembled a team made up of sentient traffic cones. With each turnover of possession, their defensive vulnerabilities became more and more apparent. Meanwhile, Villa's attack relied heavily on super-sub Jhon Durán, who was drastically overperforming his underlying metrics. Four months into 2025, neither side are recognizable.
Since February 15th, the Villans have become the third-most potent attack in the league, only trailing behind Liverpool and Brighton in Expected Goals (xG) created, per Understat data. Coincidentally – or not – that date coincided with the first time Marcus Rashford joined fellow January transfers Marco Asensio and Donyell Malen on a pitch.
Before their arrival, Villa's chance creation was at a crossroads. Durán was a game-changer off the bench but failed to mesh with the incumbent Ollie Watkins. Both players favoured a 'shots only' approach, which, when combined, wreaked havoc on the team's attacking dynamics.
While Durán's one-dimensional approach posed problems, relying on the fading Leon Bailey was far more concerning. The injection of Rashford, Malen and Asensio offered more quality and, perhaps even more importantly, versatility.
Each player could play multiple positions across the field, either pairing with Watkins or replacing him outright. This flexibility is why Villa's attack has remained productive and consistent despite Unai Emery's frequent squad rotations.
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For Pep Guardiola, the task has not been about rejuvenating the attack but fortifying the midfield and defence. Bringing in former Eintracht Frankfurt winger Omar Marmoush was a flashy purchase. But, the recent improvement in performances suggests the Catalan coach has also strengthened the defence – and the data proves it. Since February 15, Villa rank third in xG creation, while Man City position third in xG allowed during that same time frame.
The catalyst for the defensive improvement should largely be credited to Nico González. The 23-year-old's xG-allowed splits are particularly eye-opening. Per FBref, Only John Stones, Nico O'Reilly and Jeremy Doku's xG-allowed per 90 rank lower than González's 0.96 mark. It's important to remember that xG on/off splits are very volatile and require a lot of contextual framing. But in this case, it's a welcome arrival of fresh legs to an ageing midfield.
Erling Haaland's absence is glaringly obvious. But, sidestep the ruse, and you'll see the biggest area of concern is the defence – or what's left of it. No John Stones to command the back line or Rodri to anchor ahead has forced Guardiola to deploy left-back Gvardiol in a more central position.
While he's no longer getting the freedom to combine with attackers, supply his teammates with shrewd passes in the box, or let loose screamers from tight angles, the Croatian international is still doing a lot for the City attack.
Josko Gvardiol vs. Everton
Successful Passes: 81
Expected Threat: 0.17
Progression via pass: 7.23
Progression via carry: 3.1
Donations https://t.co/nlgfzDqYhs pic.twitter.com/DFtZjrxUu4
— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) April 19, 2025
Draw, Both Teams to Score (15/4)
The one caveat to include when talking about City's defensive turnaround this year is that the teams they have faced recently haven't been strong opponents. Since March, they've held four sides to 1.0 xG or less. Those four clubs – Forest, Leicester City, Manchester United and Everton – are not just struggling (Forest) or holistically bad (the other three) but also rank among the bottom seven clubs in xG created this season.
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A trip to Manchester could make things dicey for Emery's troops, but Villa's results on the road suggest otherwise. Five of the Villan's last six away games have resulted in victories, with their only loss during that stretch coming against arguably the best team in world football – Paris Saint-Germain – in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Incidentally, the last time City played a strong attacking team at home was a 2-2 draw to Brighton in March, where even the Seagulls managed to slightly edge the Citizens in the xG battle. Given the tactical similarities between Brighton and Villa, getting nearly 4-to-1 odds to see a similar result seems too good to pass up as the top four race intensifies.
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(Photo of Josko Gvardiol: Matt McNulty / Getty Images)