'How far can a president go?'

Al Jazeera

21-03-2025

But even a legal victory may not be enough to restore the US refugee system.
Temple University's Ramji-Nogales told Al Jazeera that, even if legal challenges prevail, there are myriad other ways the Trump administration could render the programme nearly ineffective.
"If they can't stop it completely, they can really lower the numbers and really inflict damage on the programme and its ability to function going forward," she said.
The 1980 legislation created an annual process for the president to set admission ceilings: a maximum number of refugees that can be allowed into the US.
Since 1990, refugee admissions have averaged about 65,000 per year. Still, the 1980 Refugee Act sets no minimum on the number of refugees that must be permitted.
The late President Jimmy Carter set the highest bar, with an admissions ceiling of more than 230,000.
Trump, meanwhile, capped admissions for fiscal year 2020 at 18,000, marking a historic low. For 2021 — the year his first term ended — he proposed an even smaller number: 15,000.
It is unclear just how far Trump can legally go in minimising the programme during his second term, according to Opila, the lawyer at the American Immigration Council.
"There isn't a ton of case law about the sort of boundaries" the president might face, Opila said.
For its part, the Trump administration has indicated there is at least one group it is willing to prioritise in refugee admissions: white Afrikaners from South Africa.
In an executive order in February, Trump said the US "shall promote the resettlement of Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation".
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, has said Trump's claims of anti-white discrimination are false.
It is unclear what the effect of all these changes will be, according to Ramji-Nogales.
She noted there has traditionally been bipartisan support for the refugee programme, as it overlapped with religious interests and efforts to promote US "soft power" abroad.
That was true even when public sentiment towards refugees dipped at various points in recent decades, she said.
But Trump has faced little opposition from his own Republican Party so far during his second term.
"What happens next depends on what happens in the midterm elections and depends on what happens with the next presidential election," Ramji-Nogales said.