Territorial ambitions of China in South China Sea & the future of rule-based Indo-Pacific

Time of India

15-05-2025

Dr. Prashant Prabhakar Deshpande has post-graduated in Economics with a Gold Medal in 1976 and was awarded a Ph.D in Social Sciences from Nagpur University in 2007.
At the third India-France-Australia trilateral focal points meeting in Delhi on 19th June 2024, the three countries have vowed to work jointly towards a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific amid China's growing muscle-flexing in the region. The three sides reportedly reviewed progress made under the three pillars of trilateral cooperation, namely:
Maritime safety and security; Marine and environmental cooperation, and; Multilateral engagement.
The meeting identified new proposals for furthering the trilateral cooperation under the framework of the Indo Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) mechanisms.
The Ministry of External Affairs had stated in a statement that, the 3 countries have reaffirmed their commitment to advancing their shared values working together towards a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
The IPOI is an open, inclusive, non-treaty based, global initiative that was announced by PM Narendra Modi at the 14th East Asia Summit in November 2019 to promote collaborative efforts among like-minded nations to better manage, conserve and secure the Indo-Pacific maritime domain, while, the IORA is an inter-governmental organisation, aimed at strengthening regional cooperation.
New China rules to detain foreigners in South China Sea
China claims almost the entire South China Sea brushing aside the competing claims from several Southeast Asian nations including the Philippines, although The Hague Tribunal had concluded in 2016 that China's claims to historic rights within the 9-dash line were contrary to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) and have no lawful effect beyond the maritime entitlements granted under the convention. The panel had also held China's activities within the Philippines' 200 nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), such as illegal fishing and environmentally ruinous artificial island construction infringed on Philippines' sovereign rights.
Disregarding the claims of Southeast Asian nations & the international ruling, China however continues to deploy coast guard and other boats to patrol the waters and has turned several reefs into militarised artificial islands. Chinese and Philippines vessels also had a series of confrontations in the disputed areas.
Under the New Chinese coast guard rules that took effect from June 15, 2024, it can detain foreigners for trespassing in the disputed South China Sea.
The Group of Seven bloc (G7) has also criticised the incursions by China in the waterway as being dangerous, opposing China's militarisation & intimidation activities in the South China Sea.
The US Navy and others undertake voyages in the South China Sea to assert the freedom of navigation in international waters which Beijing considers as violations of its sovereignty.
In the past, China had objected to the US and other Western warships sailing through the South China Sea & Chinese and US forces having had a series of close encounters in the South China Sea.
Importance of South China Sea
South China Sea is a vital waterway through which trillions of dollars of ship-borne trade annually passes. Huge unexploited oil and gas deposits are also believed to lie under its seabed & the sea is also important as a source of fish for the growing populations. Malaysia and Brunei also have overlapping claims in some parts.
However, most recently confrontations between China and the Philippines have raised fears of a wider conflict over the sea that could involve the United States and other allies.
The flashpoints
An escalating diplomatic row and recent maritime run-ins between China and the Philippines are said to have made the highly strategic South China Sea a flashpoint. Central to the recent standoffs between the Philippines and China are two hotly contested features located inside Philippines's 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone, which China claims as its own.
China uses the so-called 9-dash line that takes in about 90% of the South China Sea to assert its claim to sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal, a submerged reef coveted for its bountiful fish stocks, and the Second Thomas Shoal, home to a small contingent of Filipino sailors living aboard a rusty warship that Philippines intentionally grounded in 1999 to further its territorial claims.
China has deployed hundreds of coastguard vessels to patrol these areas, alarming the Philippines, rival claimants and other states operating in the South China Sea. The United States is also said to be wary of China's growing military power and territorial ambition.
Encounters between the Philippines and China in Asia's most contested waters have grown more tense and frequent over the past year as China has pressed its claims and Philippines has refused to cease its fishing and resupply activities to Filipinos at the two shoals which China considers to be illegal intrusions and has therefore tried to repel the vessels.
China's coastguard has stepped up so-called grey-zone activities such as, use of water cannon, collision, and ramming tactics, and, according to Philippines, use of a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines resupply and patrol missions & has also deployed an armada of fishing boats which the Philippines and allies consider militia.
China's actions have also drawn international condemnation and concern from major powers including the United States, Japan, Australia, France, and Britain.
Epilogue
Amid the rise in tensions with China, the Philippines has strengthened its partnerships with other Indo-Pacific neighbours & signed deals to increase base access, joint exercise training, and weapons transfers with the United States. Japan has also stepped up its presence in recent years by selling military equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam to improve maritime security capacity. However, to prevent China's prospective domination of a main artery of global trade, nothing less than a multilateral approach is considered necessary through an optimal combination of engagement and deterrence. Like-minded powers and China's besieged neighbours need to collectively deploy a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military countermeasures to uphold a free and open order in the world's most dynamic region. The India-France-Australia trilateral focal points meeting in Delhi therefore assumes importance in the emerging scenario.
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Views expressed above are the author's own.