Hamas's gains and Israel's strategic loss: What has the last ceasefire taught us?

Yahoo

22-07-2025

In the interview with Maariv, Ofer criticized Israel's approach since Operation Gideon's Chariots, arguing that Hamas 'gets everything it wants.'
More than four months have passed since the end of the last ceasefire in Gaza, and despite this, Israel has failed to achieve any strategic gains, neither through the fighting nor the political negotiations, Eyal Ofer, an expert on Hamas's economy and regional relations, told Maariv.
In the interview, Ofer criticized Israel's approach since Operation Gideon's Chariots, arguing that Hamas 'gets everything it wants.'
"It's been four months since the ceasefire ended, and Hamas is still negotiating hard, setting demands, and Israel is yielding," Ofer said. "What does this teach us? That the main principle of the previous agreement—the option for the IDF to return to fighting—hasn't led to any strategic outcomes for Israel."
The consequences of further agreements
Ofer warns that any further deal with Hamas would likely lead to Israel's near-total withdrawal from areas captured during the operation, particularly from strategic positions in the southern Gaza Strip.
"If there is another deal now, Hamas will get Israeli withdrawal from nearly all the areas captured during Operation 'Gideon's Chariots,' including the Morag Corridor and most of the Rafah urban area."
Ofer believes the situation is already visible on the ground, particularly for the Abu Shabab clan, which controls parts of the eastern areas of Gaza City under IDF protection. Recently, the clan appealed in The Times for international protection from Hamas's threats.
"It seems that the message that Israel will not control all of Gaza forever is starting to be taken into account," he said.
Philadelphi corridor as a rare exception
The only exception, according to Ofer, is the Philadelphi corridor.
'Hamas only concedes to Israel in one area—Hamas is willing to let us stay in the Philadelphi corridor. Why? Hamas knows that the disconnection between Gaza and Egypt and its economic connection to Israel have benefited it in the past and will continue to do so in the future.
Hamas wants Gaza's reconstruction resources, funded globally, to flow into the Gaza Strip from Israel. For example, the quality of cement from Israel is much better than Egyptian cement, and Israel can always be pressured.'
Hamas's growing leverage
Ofer claims that Hamas is already benefiting from this extortion.
"Hamas is already receiving, even before any agreement, fuel and increased aid. This is because Israel has put itself in an impossible situation: We've taken responsibility for the economy and health of two million Gazans, but we don't control the population centers. Hamas does.
Therefore, we have no choice. Implementing the civilian responsibility we've taken on requires transferring aid through Hamas, Gaza's looting gangs, and traders—unless we simply pile up a huge stack of boxes in aid distribution camps, without asking, 'Who wants it, come and take.'"
For Ofer, this is what Israeli "civilian responsibility" in Gaza looks like today:
'A complete loss. We're transferring aid to Hamas, and the world blames us for the hunger in Gaza. In the end, just like in the tale of the rotten fish, we'll be kicked out of the city.'
Hamas's continued strength and Israeli failure
Ofer explains that Hamas has become stronger due to two major successes.
'Hamas has blended into the civilian population, from where it carries out guerrilla operations against the IDF. On the one hand, Hamas manages to harm our soldiers every few days, portraying itself to its people and the Arab world as a strong military force in the region. On the other hand, the mixing of the IDF and Hamas with the civilian population creates the images of dead and starving children—the main Hamas weapon.'
Therefore, it is no surprise that Hamas continues to make unreasonable demands without feeling any urgency to end the conflict.
'When they feel strong, they keep demanding everything—including the release of murderers they want freed and sent abroad, where it's harder for us to eliminate them. Of course, they've already received the biggest prize: the return of a million displaced people to Gaza City and northern Gaza.'
Hostages versus strategic gains
He does not underestimate the importance of securing the return of hostages, but highlights the cost of such actions.
"And what did Israel get? The hostages. Important. But the insistence was on 'returning to combat.' We did. So what did we get from it (apart from another 40 dead and dozens of wounded)? Did Hamas 'become convinced' by Operation 'Gideon's Chariots' to demand less? Is Hamas begging for a deal that will stop the fighting of five divisions in Gaza? Not at all."
The standoff continues
Ofer concludes that Hamas remains in the same position. "Hamas is still in the same place, stalling (just like Netanyahu—it's a mutual interest) and knows they're not threatened militarily in any way. They'll keep creating a false image to the world and occasionally achieve successes in guerrilla warfare. That is, until the next deal."