‘Ripe for a teal candidate': Inside Queensland's bluest Greens seat
Three years on from Brisbane's 'Greenslide', three seats are in the firing line as the next federal election approaches.
But while the party's weakest seat, Ryan, might be leafy, locals aren't so sure it's still Green.
Established as an electorate in 1949, Ryan was a blue seat – that is, held by the conservative Liberal Party or its Queensland successor, the LNP – for all but 11 months in 2001 until the Greens' Elizabeth Watson-Brown won in 2022.
The electorate covers two dozen suburbs, from urban riverside areas near the University of Queensland campus to more affluent suburbs where at least 80 per cent of residents are homeowners.
University of Queensland political economist Professor Shahar Hameiri not only works in Ryan, he also lives there, in the semi-rural suburb of Brookfield on Brisbane's western fringe.
Corflutes supporting the Greens pepper the electorate's roadsides, but Hameiri said that didn't reflect the reality for Brookfield voters, who favoured the LNP by 61 per cent at the last election.
Across the electorate, Watson-Brown's first preference count lagged 8.3 per cent behind then-incumbent LNP member Julian Simmonds, and her final lead was a slim 2.6 per cent.
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Hours before the beleaguered Greens were set to choose a new leader after a rough election, the crossbench party's First Nations spokeswoman, Senator Dorinda Cox, was spotted having breakfast with unusual dining companions. She was eating 10 minutes away from the Treasury building in inner east Melbourne, near the MCG, where the party's remaining 12 MPs, including Cox, would vote that afternoon on the party leadership, following Adam Bandt's shock loss. Cox planned to put herself forward to be the Greens' deputy. But the West Australian senator wasn't dining with her Greens colleagues. Instead, she was joined by Labor senator Jana Stewart and her husband Marcus Stewart, the first co-chair of Victoria's First Peoples' Assembly. It was one of several conversations that Labor figures had with Cox before she stood next to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday to announce she would be joining the party. Her defection shocked many; Greens leader Larissa Waters, voted in at the May 15 meeting, was told just 90 minutes before Cox went public. But the decision was 12 months in the making, and involved discussions with both Albanese and former Labor senator Pat Dodson, the 'Father of Reconciliation', sources familiar with the process but who asked to remain anonymous have told this masthead. Her departure deals another blow to the progressive crossbench party, already battered from losing its leader and two other lower house MPs in last month's election. The Greens retain the balance of power in the Senate but go backward, again, in number. The loss of their only Indigenous senator raises uncomfortable questions about representation. But that narrative belies the more complicated backdrop to her departure. Cox has been the subject of numerous complaints about her conduct and several Greens staffers were relieved the party would no longer have to defend her. She also had a fractious relationship with the Greens' internal Indigenous network, which exposed dysfunctional elements of the at-times secretive political party. The Green wave washes away In 2022, the Greens hit a high-water mark in Canberra. Their 16 parliamentarians included two Indigenous MPs. But a bitter relationship between Cox and firebrand senator Lidia Thorpe began almost as soon as they sat together in parliament for the first time that year. Cox, who came into parliament on a senate vacancy in 2021, had coveted the Indigenous affairs portfolio, which was given to Thorpe. Then the Voice referendum campaign began, fuelling the divide within the Greens over whether the party should be more activist or collaborative. Loading Thorpe and Cox disagreed over politics. Cox supported the Yes vote and made an argument for change from within. Thorpe advocated a progressive No case, describing the Voice as a powerless advisory body as she pushed for treaties instead. 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'We do certainly have a bevy of grassroots First Nations members of our party… and we're really proud of that. And our policies have been crafted by those folk and our broader membership, and they are strong on truth-telling and treaties and justice.' But dysfunction in the Blak Greens makes that mission more complicated. A review of the network last year by Indigenous consulting firm MurriMatters unearthed a raft of problems with governance, relationship breakdowns and inconsistent advice to the Greens party room. A spokesperson for the group put its membership at about 300 people, with between 30 and 50 who are active, although one former senior member said meeting attendance was sometimes as few as five. Loading 'The network is at the bottom of an S-curve at the moment,' the former member said. 'There's a lot of infighting [and] people focus on personal grudges … You've got to work within all these structures, people pull against those tensions, and it's a large group of white people versus a small group of black people.' Some current members dispute the MurriMatters review findings, but the former member said: 'We're just hoping the review will set up a better structure.' All the while, the network's problems with Cox persisted. In the lead-up to last month's leadership ballot, the Blak Greens lobbied for a non-Indigenous MP, Mehreen Faruqi, to take the First Nations portfolio from her. The dynamics between Cox and the Blak Greens compounded the senator's problems with the broader party, who rejected her bid for the deputy leadership three votes to nine last month. Cox had been a Labor member before joining the Greens and running for a state seat in 2017. According to her leaked candidate nomination form from 2020, reported in this masthead, Cox described Labor as patronising to women and people of colour, and claimed the party cared more about its donors than members. But in the Greens, Cox soon emerged as a moderate voice in a party room that seemed to platform loud voices and strident positions. That left her feeling disillusioned and unsupported, people close to her say. Cox's return to Labor The conversations that would bring Cox back to Labor began at least a year ago. She made friendships within Labor circles during the last term of parliament and became close with senators Stewart and Dodson. Cox spoke with Dodson, a fellow West Australian and one of the country's most respected Indigenous leaders, in the weeks before her defection. But it was Albanese who led the discussions with the party's leadership, took the move to Labor's national executive and made the final call. Dodson did not respond to a request for comment. Asked about his breakfast with Cox, Marcus Stewart declined to comment. But Stewart gave his reflections on a move he called 'a masterstroke by Anthony Albanese'. 'There is clearly a cultural issue within their [the Greens] party room. Dorinda is a person who prioritises progress over protest, unlike the Greens,' he said. 'Dorinda had a decision to make. Do you want to be outside the building throwing water balloons? Or in the room, trying to influence better outcomes for First Nations people? And she made it. 'The pile-on by the Greens since Dorinda left just demonstrates why people didn't vote for them at the last election.' All political defections leave wreckage in their wake, and this week's was no different: within hours, multiple Greens began backgrounding against the woman they had been defending against bullying allegations for months. The reprisals included leaked text messages and details of previous comments she had made about Labor. Greens staffers think Albanese has taken on an unnecessary risk for a short-term political win. The prime minister will inherit any fallout from revelations in this masthead last October that Cox had 20 staff leave her office within three years, with five making some form of complaint to the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service, Bandt's office or the WA Greens. The allegations made by former Cox staff include claims of an unsafe workplace and bullying behaviour. Several former staffers were dismayed by what they regarded as Bandt's lack of action. Parliament's Workplace Support Service undertook two 'cultural diagnostics' of Cox's office and examined some of the complaints made to it, but was not empowered to investigate. Cox has apologised for any distress caused by the bullying allegations, but argued there was significant missing context that helped explain the staff exodus, including a change in portfolios when Thorpe quit. Loading Albanese defended her this week. 'We examined everything that had been considered in the past. Those issues were dealt with appropriately,' he said. But his claim is contested: a Greens WA inquiry by Perth firm Modern Legal had only just begun when Cox's departure triggered its end. The allegations add another reason for Cox's defection to Labor: they meant she was set to lose her first-placed spot on the Greens' WA Senate ticket and therefore her place in parliament at the next election. Cox is now likely to stand in Labor's third spot on the WA ticket, previously held by now-independent senator Fatima Payman, which makes her re-election difficult, but not impossible. Where it leaves the Greens Many Greens have this week framed Cox's defection in that context: an opportunistic move designed to protect her own career. Still, like Payman leaving Labor prompted questions about the party's commitment to diversity, given the government lost its youngest senator and the first to wear a hijab, Cox's departure is uncomfortable for the Greens. The progressive minor party runs on a strong platform of First Nations justice. Now it has no Indigenous representation in either federal or state parliaments. Both Labor and the Coalition have Indigenous MPs in the Indigenous affairs portfolio. The Greens' spokeswoman is now party leader Waters. Greens figures played down the repercussions of Cox's exit, which follows Thorpe's. 'I think there's two very different reasons why those strong First Nations women made the decisions that they made, and it was definitely their call,' Waters said this week. Thorpe said it was unfortunate the Greens had no Indigenous representation, but agreed she and Cox had left for different reasons. 'It is disappointing to see Senator Cox go to the Labor Party to become a backbencher that obviously will not have a voice and no say in policy development,' she said on the ABC. But Cox thought differently, according sources close to her, who said she was concerned about the Greens' hardline stance on Gaza and even uncomfortable with its attitude towards Anzac Day. Cox is also a strong supporter of Makarrata, or treaty-making with Indigenous people, and believed she could advance that cause in government. Loading 'I am in public life to make real change and deliver lasting and tangible outcomes for Australians,' Cox said on Monday. 'I've worked hard to make Australia fairer and much more reconciled. But recently I've lost some confidence in the capacity for the Greens to assist me in being able to progress this.' Those comments reflect a continuing debate in the Greens as members tussle over its future. Some elements of the party seek a more constructive approach to parliament and stronger focus on the party's environmental mission. Others want it to maintain its activist roots and radical politics, even if it means forfeiting representation in parliament. A Greens source who has been involved with the party for 20 years said it was a perennial debate. 'It's not an issue that's specific to the Greens. You've got people at the harder activist fringe, you've got people who are more moderate, and as a party you've got to be able to accommodate all of those things. Both those approaches have their place,' he said.
