Thai-Cambodian Ceasefire Continues to Hold, Despite Thai Claims of Violations
A ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia appears to be holding, despite Bangkok's continued claims of violations by Cambodian forces. On Monday evening, the two sides agreed to an 'immediate and unconditional' ceasefire to halt a fierce border conflict that has killed at least 43 people and displaced more than 300,000 in both countries. The agreement came into effect at midnight.
Yesterday afternoon, Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters in Bangkok that the situation along the border was calm, despite Thai claims that Cambodian troops had violated the ceasefire early on Tuesday.
The Thai army said that Cambodian soldiers opened fire on Thai positions at five areas along the border after the ceasefire deadline and that Thai troops have retaliated 'appropriately' and in 'self-defense.' This morning, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged that these had continued late yesterday and into the early hours of this morning, when a Thai military position in Sisaket province 'came under attack by small arms fire and grenade assaults launched by Cambodian forces.'
'Such an act of aggression constitutes once again a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement by the Cambodian forces and their apparent lack of good faith,' it stated.
Cambodia has denied violating the agreement. In a statement yesterday, its Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Thailand's 'misleading and fabricated accusations' and reiterated that 'it has no intention, now or in the future, of breaching the ceasefire.' The government has issued similar denials in response to the allegations made today by the Thai Foreign Ministry.
Nonetheless, despite these tensions, the ceasefire appears to be holding. Despite earlier Thai reports to the contrary, military commanders from each side met along the border, agreeing on a number of mutual moves to calm tensions. Had agreed to halt troop movements and suspend reinforcements in disputed areas, and to help Formation of four-person joint liaison teams from each side to coordinate and resolve issues
Gen. Tan Sri Haji Mohammad Nizam bin Haji Jaffar, the chief of the Malaysian Armed Forces, also arrived yesterday in Cambodia in order to monitor the ceasefire. As per the Cambodian military, his visit 'aims to assess the mechanisms and processes for enforcing the ceasefire agreement effectively,' as Cambodianess reported.
Negotiations between Thai and Cambodian officials will continue at a meeting of the General Border Committee, which is scheduled to take place in Cambodia on August 4. The committee includes the defense ministers and senior military commanders from both countries.
In a Facebook post quoted by Reuters, Cambodia's influential former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has played a prominent role in the conflict over the past few months, thanked 'the armies of both Cambodia and Thailand for respecting and implementing this agreement.'
As I noted yesterday, these claims and counterclaims – surrounded by a blizzard of one-sided and (often AI-generated) articles in the Cambodian and Thai press – point to just how far bilateral trust has been harmed by the mutual escalation that preceded the outbreak of fighting last week.
Whether the ceasefire holds over the longer term depends on the extent to which domestic political constituencies in both countries, including their respective armies, are committed to peace. In Cambodia, where the conflict has unified the country around Prime Minister Hun Manet's government, the ruling Cambodian People's Party enjoys near-total control over domestic politics, including the press, most of civil society, and the armed forces. This puts it in firm control of events. Just as Hun Sen arguably helped stoke the conflict with Thailand, he and his son's government now have the ability to de-escalate tensions. The immediate question is whether they wish to do so.
The situation in Thailand is more complex and multivariate. After weeks of political turmoil, the weak Pheu Thai-led government has not benefited from the 'rally-around-the-flag' effect to any great extent. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is currently suspended from office pending a Constitutional Court investigation into a leaked phone call with Hun Sen, in which she criticized a Thai army commander for being aligned with her political opponents, and her government is unlikely to survive.
As Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote this week, Thailand's shambolic civilian government can be contrasted with the country's well-disciplined military, which has found itself empowered by the border conflict. The possibility of growing friction between the conservative establishment and its nemesis, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, believed to be the true force behind the government led by his daughter Paetongtarn, creates a considerable amount of uncertainty as to the border situation. Given that the conservative establishment has often used border disputes with Cambodia as a means of undermining its domestic political opponents, the prospect of further escalations from the Thai side cannot be ruled out.
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