'Game of chicken with no end': China and EU respond to Trump's sweeping tariffs
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Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US-EU trade deal impacts on pharma industry more 'manageable' than expected
A 15% import tariff on pharmaceutical goods from the European Union to the US is going to have a lesser impact on the pharmaceutical industry than Wall Street feared. Big pharmaceutical stocks like Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose slightly, by about 1%, in trading Thursday after the trade deal was announced, putting to rest concerns of tariffs threatened as high as 200% previously by President Trump. "The two regions have established a 15% tariff cap on imported drugs from EU to the US. This is being viewed by most as both manageable and below the 20%+ rate many expected," wrote Mizuho's healthcare expert Jared Holz in a note to clients Thursday. The deal outlined by the US and EU has multiple parts that impact the pharmaceutical industry, with some clarity still needed. The first is levying either the 15% tariff or the Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing, whichever is higher, on pharma drugs manufactured in the EU. This puts more emphasis on President Trump's efforts to equalize US drug costs to the lower prices seen in the EU and other developed nations and also impacts a smaller portion of products, as pharma executives have emphasized that most of the branded drugs sold in the US are made in the US. But questions remain on whether the finalize products, or some components, will be taxed. "The United States commits to apply the higher of either the US MFN tariff rate or a tariff rate of 15 percent, comprised of the MFN tariff and a reciprocal tariff, on originating goods of the European Union," according to the White House statement. The second part of the deal is that, as of Sept. 1, the US will enforce MFN pricing on generics and "chemical precursors." The latter refers to active pharmaceutical ingredients, which are the key chemical compounds in any drug. They are cheaper to mass-produce overseas, largely in Asia or Ireland. Experts say that prices for generics, which account for a majority of prescriptions filled in the US, are already low. "The administration is, for the time being, focusing Most Favored Nations pricing on generic products — hoping to peg US prices to that of other countries. Given the already lower cost of generic medicines and net price paid domestically, see the financial ramifications here as more limited than not. Have to look deeper at what precise drugs will be subject to this regulation but for now, not a strategy we see as stifling the industry/major players," Mizuho's Holz said. Its why big generics players, like Teva (TEVA), saw their stocks also rise on the news — up more than 4% Thursday. UBS analyst Ashwani Verma called the trade deal a positive for drugmakers, in a note to clients Thursday. The deal also left wiggle room for additional items: "The United States and the European Union agree to consider other sectors and products that are important for their economies and value chains for inclusion in the list of products for which only the MFN tariffs would apply," according to the White House statement. J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott told clients Thursday that clarity on details — including which components are chosen and how the tariffs are levied — as well as the pending results of an investigation by the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security, will determine the final impact. In addition, Schott noted that many companies have already stocked up on products in advance of the expected tariff deal, and have inventory through mid-2026. "In the near-term, we see inventory stocking as largely limiting the impact of tariffs through mid-to-late 2026 or longer in some cases," Schott said. Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, provider services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee as AnjKhem on social media platforms X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky @AnjKhem. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest health industry news and events impacting stock prices
San Francisco Chronicle
8 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Illegal immigration hit a record-high of 14 million in the US in 2023, Pew report finds
The number of people in the United States illegally surged to an all-time high of 14 million in 2023, a research group said Thursday, a major increase that still falls well short of estimates from President Donald Trump and some critics of immigration. The Pew Research Center's closely watched gauge rose from 11.8 million a year earlier and surpassed the previous high of 12.2 million in 2007. The increase was driven by some 6 million who were in the country with some form of legal protection. Trump has stripped many of those protections since taking office in January. Pew, whose estimates date back to 1990, said that, while 2023 is its latest full analysis, preliminary findings show the number rose in 2024, though at a slower rate after then-President Joe Biden severely restricted asylum at the border in June of that year. The number dropped this year under Trump, but is still likely above 14 million. The overall U.S. immigrant population, regardless of legal status, reached an all-time high of more than 53 million in January 2025, accounting for a record 15.8% of the U.S. population. The number has since dropped, which Pew said would be the first time it has shrunk since the 1960s. While the findings are unlikely to settle debate, Pew's report is one of the most complete attempts to measure illegal immigration. Nearly all the increase came from countries other than Mexico. Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and India accounted for the largest numbers after Mexico. Totals from Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Ukraine and Peru each more than doubled in two years. Trump said in an address to Congress in March that 21 million people 'poured into the United States' during the previous four years, far exceeding estimates from Pew and what figures on border arrests suggest. The Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group largely aligned with his policies, estimated 18.6 million in March. The Center for Immigration Studies, a group that favors immigration restrictions, reported that there were 14.2 million people in the U.S. illegally last month, down from a peak of 15.8 million in January. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem touted the reported drop of 1.6 million in six months. 'This is massive,' she said in a press release last week. Noem's own department, through its Office of Homeland Security Statistics, estimates there were 11 million people in the U.S. illegally in 2022, its most recent count. The Center for Migration Studies, author of another closely watched survey, most recently pegged the number at 12.2 million in 2022, topping its previous high of 12 million in 2008. Pew's findings, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau survey and Department of Homeland Security, reflect an increase in people crossing the border illegally to exercise rights to seek asylum and Biden-era policies to grant temporary legal status. Those policies included a border appointment system called CBP One and permits for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans. Trump has ended those policies and also sought to reverse Biden's expansion of Temporary Protected Status for people already in the United States whose countries are deemed unsafe to return to. Mexicans were the largest nationality among people in the country illegally, a number that grew slightly to 4.3 million in 2023. The increase came almost entirely from other countries, totaling 9.7 million, up from 6.4 million two years earlier. States with the largest numbers of people in the country illegally were, in order, California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois, though Texas sharply narrowed its gap with California. Even with the increases in recent years, six states had smaller numbers in 2023 than in the previous peak in 2007: Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Oregon. Pew estimated that a record 9.7 million people without legal status were in the workforce, or about 5.6% of the U.S. labor force in 2023, with Nevada, Florida, New Jersey and Texas having the largest shares. ___
Los Angeles Times
8 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Christmas decorations come with a higher price tag this holiday season, thanks to tariffs.
The Christmas decorations industry is hoping Donald Trump's tariffs don't ruin the holidays. The vast majority of artificial Christmas trees, lights and other decor are imported — mostly from China. Because seasonal items typically need to be shipped months ahead of time, stiffer levies have already added millions of dollars in unexpected costs. Jared Hendricks, founder and chief executive officer of Village Lighting Company in West Valley City, Utah, had to take a line of credit leveraged by his house and office to help cover the $1.5 million in extra tariff costs. 'This is the most stressful year I've ever had,' said Hendricks, whose business sells lights, garlands and wreaths to professional installers and consumers. 'Over the last 20-some-odd years we've been through a lot, and I'm just kind of operating on faith that we'll find a way.' As Trump's ever-changing announcements on tariffs rolled in during the crucial shipping period for the industry, managers from across the country said they had to cancel shipments, cut down on orders and lay off workers to be able to pay the duties. Some expressed concerns about staying in business. For shoppers this holiday season, the shipping disruptions will mean less choice of products in the stores and prices that could be 10% to 20% higher than last year as a result of tariffs, said Jami Warner, executive director of the American Christmas Tree Association. An artificial tree that cost $299 in 2024, say, could fetch as much as $359 this year. 'This is a happy industry, and this is a pretty unhappy time to be in it,' Warner said. By the end of August, much of the year's imported Christmas trees and other decorations have been shipped, and retailers are busy preparing for the holiday season when they make the bulk of their sales. Another question this year is whether uncertainty about the direction of the economy will weigh on holiday spending.'It's going to be a challenging holiday season for lots of retailers,' said Natalie Kotlyar, a retail analyst at advisory firm BDO. U.S. companies imported $3.4 billion in artificial Christmas trees, ornaments, and other holiday decorations last year, and 87% came from China, according to the U.S. Census Bureau trade data. In addition, roughly $420 million in light strings came from abroad, a majority from Cambodia, a country that also faces a high tariff rate. Trump often says that companies can avoid import levies by making their products in the U.S. The administration's America First policies, including tariffs, are focused on unleashing real prosperity for American workers with good-paying jobs — 'not cheap imports,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said in an emailed statement. Craig Batten, president of S4 Lights in Toano, Virginia, said he has explored making Christmas lights in the U.S. but 'found that that was about impossible.' The only place to get many raw materials is in China and Southeast Asia, and finding enough workers here is a problem, he said. Batten added a line item to his invoices called 'tariff impact,' but he can't pass along the entire cost of the duties because that would raise prices too high. 'We're taking a hit, hoping that our existing inventory that we got pre-tariff helps offset the sticker shock,' he said. When tariffs on goods imported from China temporarily reached 145% in April, American Christmas LLC, stopped shipments and canceled 10% of orders, said CEO Dan Casterella. The Mount Vernon, New York-based company, which installs holiday displays in places such as retail stores, corporate headquarters and Christmas sites like the Rockefeller Center, resumed shipping when the duties were temporarily reduced to 30% in May as part of a trade-war truce with China. After another 90-day extension earlier this month, the new deadline for a trade deal is Nov. 10. The rate could go up or down, depending on negotiations between the US and China. Casterella says it's impossible to plan for next year without knowing what the tariff rates will be. He usually starts ordering in October or November for the following Christmas. 'I don't necessarily disagree with the mindset of having tariffs,' Casterella said. 'It's just the uncertainty right now of that around them is making it difficult to run a business.' Three Kings Gifts in Cockeysville, Maryland, specializes in nativity sets and small chests of gold, frankincense, and myrrh — the three gifts given to baby Jesus in the Bible. Rich Terlep says he's used contractors in China since starting the company in 2005. For instance, workers use a tiny tip of a peacock feather to put the pupils in the eyes of figurines. It's a low-wage job that wouldn't be filled in the U.S., he said. Terlep scurried to get 11 containers carrying about 700 sets each shipped so they would land in the U.S. before the initial Aug. 12 deadline. He's decided to eat the tens of thousands of dollars in additional costs from tariffs. 'Everyone is hoping against hope that somehow or another sanity is going to emerge out of this because it is unsustainable,' Terlep said. At Balsam Hill, one of the leading companies in the holiday-decorations business, the tariffs bill is expected to come to about $15 million this year — up from $1 million last year, according to Mac Harman, founder and CEO of parent company Balsam Brands. To preserve cash to pay tariffs, the California-based firm scaled back orders, cut 10% of its global workforce of 350 employees, and froze raises and travel. But none of those actions come close to covering the cost of the tariffs, Harman said. The Christmas Trade Group, which represents small and medium-sized decoration firms, has requested a tariff exemption from the Trump administration. The group argues that domestic production is impossible, decorations are critical to holiday retail sales and that tariffs effectively force businesses to choose between operating at a loss and closing. Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said he's heard from a number of owners who are concerned about the viability of their business. The Christmas Trade Group has been encouraged by conversations it's had both with members of Congress and the administration, said Josh Fendrick, a principal with Williams & Jensen representing the coalition. The White House didn't say whether the exclusion request would be considered. There's a precedent for relief. In his first term, Trump delayed some tariffs on Chinese imports, saying at the time 'so it won't be relevant to the Christmas shopping season.' 'We sell joy, we sell memories,' said Chris Butler of National Tree Company in New Jersey. 'If any industry had a shot at getting some kind of exemption from the administration, it would be us.' Niquette writes for Bloomberg.
