‘Massive crack in the MAGA coalition': The Trump-Musk feud threatens the GOP's future

Politico

a day ago

Elon Musk just launched a war against the GOP. Now the party's hopes of holding onto power are at stake.
Musk has gone from helping Republicans take total control of Washington — spending nearly $300 million to become the single biggest known donor last year — to attacking the highest-ranking leaders of the party and daring the rank and file to cross him.
'Trump has 3.5 years left as President, but I will be around for 40+ years,' Musk said on X.
The post was an unambiguous warning from the world's richest man, who has the power to single-handedly reshape elections with his wealth. It was not long ago that Republicans hoped Musk could pour cash into their efforts to help maintain control of Washington. Instead, he's becoming their public adversary.
Musk spent Thursday online attacking President Donald Trump over Republicans' massive tax-and-spending bill, which Musk says does not cut enough government spending.
He'd already threatened to challenge Republicans who support the megabill; on Thursday, he blasted House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, took credit for Republicans winning trifecta control in November, and floated the idea of launching a third party.
'This is a massive crack in the MAGA coalition,' said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and a former Trump administration appointee. 'This town is historically built on Republican versus Democrat, and this seems to be crazy versus crazy. It is asymmetric and it seems, for the first time, President Trump seems to be out-crazied.'
Just a few weeks ago, Republicans were still praising Musk for his financial backing in the 2024 election as they hoped he'd make a graceful return to the private sector after overseeing the administration's program to slash federal spending. Less than one week ago, Musk was in the Oval Office with Trump commemorating his time in administration as a special government employee.
But that polite departure, it quickly became evident, was not going to happen.
'Elon was 'wearing thin,' I asked him to leave,' Trump wrote on Truth Social, blaming Musk's anger on the megabill's removal of electric vehicle tax credits. 'He just went CRAZY!'
As Musk's drama engulfed the party Thursday, Republicans in Congress mostly tried to avoid getting caught in the crossfire. Key GOP lawmakers in both chambers worked to downplay the potential effects on both the party's domestic policy package and on the GOP's midterms posture.
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who leads the House GOP campaign arm, told reporters Thursday that he hopes the spat will 'blow over.' Before the breakup went nuclear, Hudson had said in a brief interview Wednesday evening that Musk has 'been a friend and he's just wrong about this bill.'
Even fiscal hard-liners who have embraced some of Musk's talking points about the bill tried to avoid getting drawn into the fracas. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who at one point threatened to tank the megabill for not being fiscally conservative enough, said, 'Elon crossed the line today ... we'll let those guys go play it out.'
'I don't disagree with him about our need to find more spending cuts,' Roy added, but Musk needs to 'keep it in the lines.'
Another hard-liner, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), said he believes Musk is losing sway within MAGA. Musk is 'just another shiny object,' he said, 'and we'll deal with it.'
But Musk appeared intent on turning his opposition to the legislation into a civil war for the party. He amplified two Kentucky Republicans, Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul, who have been thorns in the side of Trump and GOP leaders trying to pass the bill.
Even though Musk brought massive financial backing, he has also at times been an electoral problem for Republicans. His popularity has fallen below Trump's, and his biggest political effort this year — the Wisconsin Supreme Court race — ended with the conservative candidate losing by almost 10 points.
'Elon couldn't buy a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. You really think that people are gonna be afraid of this money?' said a person close to the White House, granted anonymity to discuss the dynamics.
As Musk's popularity faded, Republicans wondered how long his relationship with Trump could endure. On Thursday, Musk severed ties.
He took shot after shot at Trump, accusing him of lying, replying 'yes' to a post suggesting he should be impeached, and accusing him of having a cozy relationship with the deceased Jeffrey Epstein, who had been accused of sex trafficking.
'What a predictable shitshow,' said a person who has been in the room with both Musk and Trump. 'Trump is a liar, and it was obvious Elon would not be able to go along with his incessant lying forever.'
A nervous Republican Party is now scrambling to figure out what the electoral fallout will look like, starting with next year's midterms.
Already, two of Trump's top campaign operatives, Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio had signed up to work with Musk's Building America's Future PAC. But Musk's scorched-earth strategy could create dueling allegiances.
Privately, some Republicans are arguing they had already been preparing for next year's elections without Musk's money, and complained that America PAC — the tech billionaire's super PAC — didn't spend its money effectively in House races last year.
America PAC spent $19.2 million backing GOP candidates across 18 battleground House races last year, according to data from the Federal Election Commission. Republicans won 10 of those elections. But those were among the highest-profile and most expensive races in the country, and Musk's group accounted for only 12 percent of Republican outside spending in them. It wasn't even the biggest GOP spender — that was still the Congressional Leadership Fund, the primary super PAC affiliated with House Republicans.
'What Elon has is money, and if he's not going to put $100 million in the [midterms], that's a hole that has to be filled,' said Chris Mottola, a GOP media consultant. 'On the other hand, there was a question about how effective the money was that he spent, because he spent it the way he wanted to.'
Over the last few months, Musk has floated the idea of getting involved in the midterms, but he's also claimed he would step back from political spending. If Musk is going to go all-in against the party, he's going to need more than money.
'Are there enough good Republican operatives out there to go achieve this mission for Elon Musk when it means going up against the president?' said a former RNC official, granted anonymity to discuss the situation candidly. 'Everybody's got a price, but I don't think they are rushing to go help Elon further divide the Republican Party ahead of the midterms.'
Lisa Kashinsky, Jessica Piper, Holly Otterbein, Dasha Burns, Nicholas Wu, Sophia Cai, Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.