The Quantum Conundrum: Inside The Race To Future-Proof Cybersecurity

Forbes

01-07-2025

Srinivas Shekar, Founder and CEO, Pantherun Technologies.
Most people don't think about it daily, but data encryption is vital to our lives.
Secure encryption technology is used to protect the data on your mobile device, laptop, hard drive and the cloud, as well as anything sent by text or email, just to scratch the surface. Any valuable data that is digitally stored, sent or spent is likely to be encrypted.
That turns out to be essential for secure finance, defense, telecom, health, commerce and many other services.
Fortunately, those services—and all that data—are very safe, thanks to Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) 256, the gold standard of data encryption today. How safe? Well, to systematically try every possible key in an AES-256 encryption until the correct one is found (known as a 'brute force' attack), a hacker would have to try up to 1.16×1077 possibilities.
Written out, that number looks like this: 116,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
If a hacker tried one potential decryption key per second, it would take them three hundred sixty-eight quattuordecillion years to attempt all possible keys. That is 3.6×1041 million years (360, followed by 42 zeroes)—about 1,060 times longer than the age of the known universe.
So, pretty darn safe. But in this world of rapidly accelerating technology change, cybersecurity leaders and end users alike are starting to ask, "Safe for how long?' The reason is quantum computing.
How Quantum Computing Challenges Encryption
Fully functional quantum computers capable of undermining today's strongest encryption methods are not expected for at least 10 years (and probably quite a bit longer)
However, there are already quantum formulas like Shor's Algorithm, which uses quantum superpositioning to try an exponential number of possibilities all at once, and Grover's Algorithm, which leverages probability hacks to reduce the number of guesses needed in a brute force attack to the square root of the total number of possible solutions.
With Grover's algorithm, for instance, a 256-bit key can be simplified down to a 128-bit key, at which point it is easier to successfully guess the correct key. (Roughly, it is like picking an unknown card out of a full deck in just seven guesses, rather than trying all 52 cards, one by one.)
While that is still not a big enough advantage to threaten AES-256 encryption today, those responsible for data security do need to start planning for its eventual vulnerability. Here's why:
• AI: Although quantum computing is probably at least 10 to 20 years away, AI may accelerate its arrival more than we imagine, by developing quantum algorithms, improving qubit layouts, reducing error rates or discovering materials to solve quantum hardware issues.
• Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: Playing the long game, some thieves are stealing encrypted data today to access it in the future. Even currently 'invincible' encryption standards like AES-256 may not be enough to permanently protect highly valuable data.
• Rapid Access: When quantum computing does come into force, the technology could be consumerized very quickly, giving any number of bad actors ready access to encryption-weakening capabilities.
How To Prepare Today For The Post-Quantum Future
According to a U.S. security memorandum, quantum computing will 'jeopardize civilian and military communications, undermine supervisory and control systems for critical infrastructure and defeat security protocols for most Internet-based financial transactions.'
Organizations responsible for data security cannot afford to wait for this tsunami of threats to arrive before building a new sea wall. But what can organizations do today to begin solving the quantum conundrum?
1. Upgrading Encryption: If your organization is still using less secure encryption methods like RSA, DH, DSA and ECC, you must urgently update your security protocols. These methods are already vulnerable to Shor's algorithm and should be replaced as soon as possible. Even AES-128 will likely no longer be secure enough for high-value data when quantum computing arrives.
2. Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): PQC employs hard mathematical models like lattices and multivariate equations to make encryption quantum-resistant. It is already being used by companies like Google, Microsoft and IBM. But many PQC solutions require enormous computing power and introduce latencies, making them impractical for low-compute or real-time scenarios.
3. Out Of Band Solutions (OOB): OOB methods transmit keys outside of the communication channels typically used to send encrypted data—for instance, by satellite or physical transfer on a USB key. Because they are not on the same digital network as the data, they cannot be broken by quantum computers, even in the future. However, scaling OOB is challenging. Satellite transmission is limited by infrastructure, and manual transfer methods are subject to human error.
4. Quantum Key Distribution (QKD): QKD is a kind of OOB key transfer solution accomplished by firing single photons representing binary code over fiber optic cable. Since measuring any quantum state automatically disturbs it, interference is impossible without detection, making QKD theoretically unbreakable. However, QKD requires specialized hardware, has limited range and is prohibitively expensive for most industries.
5. Keyless Encryption: One more quantum-resistant approach to key exchange is to not have a key in the first place. With keyless encryption, keys are assembled from user data, key data fragments or using ephemeral code, which obfuscates decryption data in such a way that no quantum algorithm could ever guess it. Randomly located pieces of transmitted data can be used, for example, to form temporary keys that can be read only by an authorized receiver using the same technology. This approach solves the quantum conundrum at a low cost and with zero latency. As a relatively new solution, however, keyless methods currently lack widespread standards, posing challenges for interoperability and regulatory compliance. To take full advantage of this novel solution, greater adoption is needed by standards organizations and industry groups.
Conclusion
Most of us rarely think about data encryption, as it quietly impacts nearly every part of our digital lives.
AES-256 is incredibly strong today, but with both AI and cybercrime accelerating rapidly, the clock is ticking fast. Organizations must act now to solve the quantum conundrum—or risk waking up some day to find their most sensitive data suddenly exposed.
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