Will Field Marshal Munir test a nuclear weapon?
As the saying goes, when all you have in your hands is a hammer, every problem becomes a nail. And so Munir became Pakistan's first army chief to rattle the nuclear sabre. 'We are a nuclear nation, if we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us,' the army chief told the Pakistani diaspora at a black-tie dinner hosted in Tampa, Florida on August 9.The last two dictators, Zia and Musharraf, pioneered what Indian analysts call 'Nuclear Weapons Enabled Terrorism' or NWET - threatening the Indian political class with nuclear strikes if India launched a military response to terror attacks.Operation Sindoor collapsed NWET. The Indian political leadership unleashed air strikes against terror camps and Pakistani airbases. On May 13, the 27th anniversary of the Pokhran-II nuclear tests, Prime Minister Narendra Modi drew new red lines for Islamabad - India would not be deterred by nuclear blackmail, wouldn't distinguish between state and non-state, and would militarily punish terror attacks. PM Modi reiterated these points during his August 15 address from the Red Fort.Far more worrying for Pakistan's strategic community was the paralysis of its nuclear vectors - air and ground-launched nuclear weapons on May 10. Pakistan relies on Mirage III and F-16 fighter jets to drop nuclear gravity bombs and Wanshan series Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) to carry its arsenal of nuclear-tipped Shaheen and Abdali missiles.Fighter aircraft need secure airfields located near nuclear storage sites. TELs are designed to be road-mobile and cross-country but also need the cover provided by fighter aircraft and air defence missiles. A 23-minute rampage by the IAF on May 10, 2025 saw steep-diving BrahMos missiles driving holes into Pakistani airfields, shattering hangars with parked aircraft inside them and blasting radars to blind the Pakistan Army's air defence net.advertisementIndian Air Force Chief AP Singh revealed his missileers had shot down six PAF aircraft, including one AEW&C from a distance of over 300 km. On May 10, it didn't matter how many fighter squadrons the PAF had, the range of their air-to-air missiles or the training of its pilots. There was simply nothing the PAF or the Pakistan Army could do to stop India's BrahMos onslaught except pick up the DGMO's hotline.Indian analysts like Lt General PR Shankar (retired) believe these shock IAF strikes rattled the rungs of Pakistan's nuclear ladder are among the main reasons Islamabad brought in the United States to mediate a ceasefire.Publicly, the Pakistan army continues its 'all is well' bluster. At a public meeting on May 28 this year, Lt General Khalid Kidwai, adviser to the National Command Authority (NCA), said that Pakistan's nuclear weapons had deterred India from launching 'Cold Start', punitive military strikes. Kidwai, the longest-serving head of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which formulates nuclear strategy and handles weapons, clearly missed the point that Cold Start was only one of several options before the Indian political leadership. Post the May 22 massacre of Indian tourists at Pulwama, India's leadership chose the swiftest option available, offensive air power, to raise the costs of Pakistan's state sponsorship of terror.advertisementMunir's nuclear bluster in Tampa was to reiterate Pakistan's NWET. The Pakistan Army is the world's only military to directly control nuclear weapons. It is undoubtedly back on the drawing board to rework their nuclear strategy to deter India. This policy is said to have begun after Pakistan detonated six nuclear weapons on May 28 and 30, 1998, in the Ras Koh hills of Balochistan's Chagai district. The nuclear blackmail continued for nearly three decades as the Pakistani deep state unleashed terror strikes across India's mainland, from the 2001 attack on India's Parliament to the attack on Mumbai in 2008, before hitting a dead-end in Pulwama.Will the unpredictable Munir walk his talk on nuclear weapons and resume nuke tests to bolster his army's sagging NWET strategy? The answer lies in a series of compulsions, most revolving around the persona of Munir himself.Munir has gone about fortifying his position since Operation Sindoor. Post the conflict, he elevated himself to Field Marshal and awarded himself the Hilal-i-Jur'at, the country's second-highest military award. Munir's rising profile has sparked rumours of him replacing President Asif Ali Zardari. His 'God has made me protector' statement was a response to this speculation. But in Pakistan, nothing can be ruled out. All military dictators have shown a disdain for politicians and political office but have found the lure of power irresistible.advertisementBut the other thing about military leaders is they are attractive only in a crisis. Once the crisis passes, the reality of Pakistan being a 'dump truck filled with gravel' will soon be realised by its people when problems like inflation, unemployment, fuel shortages, and economic collapse, return to haunt them.Every Pakistani dictator who has imposed himself on the people without a mandate has realised this. Some look for a way out by eliminating competition. Munir, for instance, has worked hard to finish off the extremely popular Imran Khan, the only challenger to his leadership. Khan was unseated as Prime Minister in 2022 and has been in prison since 2023 under a battery of corruption charges.The Munir-Imran rivalry is the talk of Pakistan. Khan has accused Munir of trying to assassinate him in prison. Imran Khan remains enormously popular among the influential 9-million-strong Pakistani diaspora, with over 6,00,000 in the US alone, many of whom are beyond the reach of the Pakistan Army. Hence, Munir's recent pep talks to the diaspora to whittle away at Khan's support base.advertisementBeyond this posturing, a threat of a nuclear test or even an actual test would be rungs on Munir's personal escalation ladder.Dr Roshan Khanijo of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) believes Pakistan presently has no incentives to resume testing. 'Why would he test a weapon when he's getting everything on a platter?'A test would knock the wheels off the Pakistani dump truck— instant global sanctions and the freezing of aid. But it would tremendously bolster Munir's personal image in Pakistan. A manufactured nuclear crisis on the Indian subcontinent will mean another convergence of an unpredictable Pakistan army chief and a mercurial American President. There is nothing Pakistan's new best friend Donald Trump cannot fix and a second crisis in the subcontinent is something the US President would gladly wade in to solve for his Nobel Peace Prize quest.As a self-professed appointee of God, Munir is a man in a hurry. He needs a legacy. A nuclear test might just be one of the unhappy consequences of that quest.(Sandeep Unnithan is an author and senior journalist. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Chakra Newz, a digital media platform)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Tune InMust Watch
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