Israel's air game is strong but the final blow still needs US backup as Iran's biggest bomb risk Fordow lives on

Time of India

4 hours ago

Israel says it now controls the skies above Iran. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called this 'a game-changer.' National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi added that pilots could now strike 'countless more targets' over Tehran, thanks to the destruction of 'dozens and dozens' of Iranian air defence systems.
Since launching strikes last week, Israeli warplanes have flown thousands of kilometres, targeting nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, military commanders and infrastructure. Yet despite its air dominance, experts say Israel lacks the firepower to deliver a fatal blow to Iran's nuclear programme without American help.
'Quite a lot of tactical successes'
Andreas Krieg of King's College London said: 'Israel has achieved quite a lot of operational and tactical successes… But translating that into a strategic success will require more than what air power can deliver.'
Play Video
Pause
Skip Backward
Skip Forward
Unmute
Current Time
0:00
/
Duration
0:00
Loaded
:
0%
0:00
Stream Type
LIVE
Seek to live, currently behind live
LIVE
Remaining Time
-
0:00
1x
Playback Rate
Chapters
Chapters
Descriptions
descriptions off
, selected
Captions
captions settings
, opens captions settings dialog
captions off
, selected
Audio Track
default
, selected
Picture-in-Picture
Fullscreen
This is a modal window.
Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.
Text
Color
White
Black
Red
Green
Blue
Yellow
Magenta
Cyan
Opacity
Opaque
Semi-Transparent
Text Background
Color
Black
White
Red
Green
Blue
Yellow
Magenta
Cyan
Opacity
Opaque
Semi-Transparent
Transparent
Caption Area Background
Color
Black
White
Red
Green
Blue
Yellow
Magenta
Cyan
Opacity
Transparent
Semi-Transparent
Opaque
Font Size
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
300%
400%
Text Edge Style
None
Raised
Depressed
Uniform
Drop shadow
Font Family
Proportional Sans-Serif
Monospace Sans-Serif
Proportional Serif
Monospace Serif
Casual
Script
Small Caps
Reset
restore all settings to the default values
Done
Close Modal Dialog
End of dialog window.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Why CVS Hides This Cheap 87¢ ED Medication
Health Alliance by Friday Plans
Learn More
Undo
Even the United States' largest bunker-busting bombs may not be enough to penetrate Iran's most secure sites like Fordow, Krieg added. He suggested ground forces might be needed for any final blow.
Despite that, he said, 'Israel can act with impunity now, and they can do that in the way they did in Lebanon.'
Live Events
Echoes of Lebanon, eyes on Tehran
This campaign echoes Israel's blitz on Hezbollah in Lebanon last year, when it took out top leadership—including Hassan Nasrallah—within days. This time, Israel is openly warning residents of Tehran to evacuate specific areas, signalling imminent strikes. A regional intelligence source told Reuters that Israel had built a 'truly surprising' network of agents inside Iran, enabling it to strike with 'astonishing' accuracy.
Two U.S. officials said that President Donald Trump recently vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Netanyahu did not deny the possibility, saying targeting Khamenei could 'end the conflict.'
The standoff over Fordow
Fordow, Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear site, remains untouched. Built under a mountain, it is far beyond the reach of Israeli missiles and can likely only be hit by specialised U.S. munitions.
According to a senior Israeli official speaking anonymously to Reuters, Israel has avoided hitting Fordow so far. Instead, its campaign has focused on facilities at
Natanz
and
Isfahan
. The official said, 'If after the conflict ends Iran retained a residual uranium enrichment capability but not the people and facilities to do anything of concern with it, then this would be a major achievement.'
US and Israeli intelligence divide
While Israel insists Iran was racing toward a bomb, U.S. intelligence assessments contradict that. Four sources familiar with American briefings told CNN that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon and could be at least three years away from being able to deliver one.
A U.S. official told CNN the Natanz strikes may have only set Iran's programme back by 'a matter of months.' Former U.S. Middle East envoy Brett
McGurk
said, 'Israel can hover over those nuclear facilities… but if you really want to dismantle them, it's either a U.S. military strike or a deal.'
Diplomacy still in the shadows
Speaking at the G7 Summit, President Donald Trump confirmed: 'We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved.' He urged both countries to enter talks 'before it's too late.'
Yet a regional diplomat told CNN that Iran refuses to negotiate while under attack, despite attempts by mediators in Qatar and Oman.
Reinforcements and rearmament
Inside the
Pentagon
, preparations are under way. The USS Nimitz carrier group is moving toward the Middle East 'without delay.' Missile defence ships are expected in the eastern Mediterranean shortly.
Back in April, Israeli media reported a large U.S. shipment of bombs—including bunker busters. That supply, delivered just weeks before the assault, may now be playing a vital role. Israeli officials also claimed
Mossad
operatives destroyed several Iranian anti-aircraft systems on the ground before the aerial campaign began.
Iran retaliates, but struggles to block attacks
Tehran has fired missiles into Israeli cities and claimed it shot down Israeli aircraft. Israel denies this. It says no aircraft or crew have been lost.
A senior Western defence source told Reuters that Israeli jets have been refuelling over Syria, a country where Iranian influence has collapsed following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The source added that Israel is now operating over Syrian airspace with 'near-total freedom.'
Justin Bronk
from the
Royal United Services Institute
said Iran has 'few technical answers' to Israel's combination of F-35s—equipped for electronic warfare—and F-15s and F-16s carrying precision-guided missiles.
Emily Harding of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that Israel might have capabilities beyond what most assume. 'The ability to operate freely over the target allows for multiple sorties that could do a lot of damage,' she said.
Still, if Fordow survives intact, the consequences could be severe. McGurk cautioned, 'You could actually have a worse problem… Iran more inclined to go to a nuclear weapon, and they have that infrastructure intact.'
'We'll continue' says Israeli Envoy in India
Israel's Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, told reporters in Delhi on Tuesday: 'We'll continue to do what is in our capabilities to degrade Iran's nuclear programme.' He stressed the military operation was meant to curb a 'threat' and said Israel and the U.S. were 'completely in sync.'
Asked if he expected U.S. involvement, Azar replied, 'I feel the U.S. would support Israel's action.' He added that a diplomatic solution would still be preferable to extended conflict.
For now, Israel controls Iran's skies. But Fordow remains underground, protected, and intact. Whether this aerial campaign can reshape Iran's nuclear trajectory—or simply provoke a harder backlash—will depend on what comes next. And whether the U.S. decides to enter the war.