logo
UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C

UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C

Sinar Daily19 hours ago

The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024.
02 Jun 2025 06:01pm
A worker cleans the lines of a cooling tower at an ice factory on a hot summer day in Karachi on May 29, 2025. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP)
GENEVA - The United Nations warned there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark.
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's weather and climate agency. A man drinks water in Ronda, southern Spain as the country faces the first heatwave of the season, on May 28, 2025. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP)
"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
"Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible.
The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.
Five-year outlook
The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres.
The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average.
It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C.
"This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.
"I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent" in the five-year outlook, he added.
The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024).
Longer-term outlook
To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.
One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade.
This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C.
There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.
The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner.
2C warming now on the radar
Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming.
"It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife.
"It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise".
He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.
'Dangerous' level of warming
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers.
This year's climate is offering no respite.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.
"We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.
"Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy."
Other warnings
Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO.
Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.
And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon. - AFP
More Like This

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

One dead after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru
One dead after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

Daily Express

time6 hours ago

  • Daily Express

One dead after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

Published on: Monday, June 16, 2025 Published on: Mon, Jun 16, 2025 By: AFP Text Size: Dust billows out of a landslide during an earthquake in Lima on June 15, 2025. A magnitude 6.1 earthquake that shook Lima and its surrounding areas caused one death in Peru's capital and several landslides. AFP pic LIMA: A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Peru Sunday, killing one person and triggering landslides, officials said. The quake hit shortly before noon and was centered around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Callao, a port city next to the capital Lima, the National Seismological Center said. The US Geological Survey put the magnitude at 5.6. Advertisement Peru said the tremor had not generated a tsunami warning. A man died in Lima when a wall fell on the car he was driving, the National Police said. In addition, the Emergency Operations Center reported five injuries in Lima. President Dina Boluarte called for 'calm' from citizens, noting that there was no tsunami warning for the South American country's Pacific coastline. The TV channel Latina showed footage of landslides in several areas of the capital city. The quake also prompted a suspension of a major football game being played in Lima. Peru is home to 34 million people and lies on the so-called Ring of Fire, a stretch of intense seismic and volcanic activity around the Pacific basin. Peru averages at least 100 detectable earthquakes every year. The last big one, in 2021 in the Amazon region, had a magnitude of 7.5, left 12 people injured and destroyed more than 70 homes. A devastating quake in 1970 in the northern Ancash region of Peru killed around 67,000 people. * Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel and Telegram for breaking news alerts and key updates! * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia

UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C
UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C

Sinar Daily

time19 hours ago

  • Sinar Daily

UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C

The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024. 02 Jun 2025 06:01pm A worker cleans the lines of a cooling tower at an ice factory on a hot summer day in Karachi on May 29, 2025. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP) GENEVA - The United Nations warned there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's weather and climate agency. A man drinks water in Ronda, southern Spain as the country faces the first heatwave of the season, on May 28, 2025. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP) "We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change. The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing. Five-year outlook The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth. "I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). Longer-term outlook To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference. One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade. This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C. There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming. The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner. 2C warming now on the radar Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming. "It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife. "It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise". He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024. 'Dangerous' level of warming Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite. Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave. "We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy." Other warnings Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon. - AFP More Like This

Climate change heightens risk of Indian farmer suicides
Climate change heightens risk of Indian farmer suicides

Sinar Daily

time19 hours ago

  • Sinar Daily

Climate change heightens risk of Indian farmer suicides

Farmer suicides have a long history in India, where many are one crop failure away from disaster, but extreme weather caused by climate change is adding fresh pressure. 14 Jun 2025 08:00pm In this photograph taken on May 3, 2025, Shaikh Imran, whose brother Shaikh Latif Sheru, a farmer who committed suicide due to mounting financial loans, collects dried-up cotton plants at their farmland in Mochi Pimpalgaon village of Beed district in India's Maharashtra state. (Photo by Indranil MUKHERJEE/AFP) BEED - On a small farm in India's Maharashtra state, Mirabai Khindkar said the only thing her land grew was debt, after crops failed in drought and her husband killed himself. Farmer suicides have a long history in India, where many are one crop failure away from disaster, but extreme weather caused by climate change is adding fresh pressure. In this photograph taken on May 4, 2025, people walk across the dried-up Godavari river in Beed district in India's Maharashtra state. Farmer suicides have a long history in India, where many are one crop failure away from disaster, but extreme weather caused by climate change is adding fresh pressure. (Photo by Indranil MUKHERJEE/AFP) Dwindling yields due to water shortages, floods, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, coupled with crippling debt, have taken a heavy toll on a sector that employs 45 percent of India's 1.4 billion people. Mirabhai's husband Amol was left with debts to loan sharks worth hundreds of times their farm's annual income, after the three-acre (one-hectare) soybean, millet and cotton plot withered in scorching heat. He swallowed poison last year. "When he was in the hospital, I prayed to all the gods to save him," said 30-year-old Mirabai, her voice breaking. Amol died a week later, leaving behind Mirabai and three children. Her last conversation with him was about debt. Their personal tragedy is replicated daily across Marathwada, a region in Maharashtra of 18 million, once known for fertile farmland. Last year, extreme weather events across India affected 3.2 million hectares (7.9 million acres) of cropland -- an area bigger than Belgium -- according to the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment research group. Over 60 percent of that was in Maharashtra. "Summers are extreme, and even if we do what is necessary, the yield is not enough," said Amol's brother and fellow farmer Balaji Khindkar. "There is not enough water to irrigate the fields. It doesn't rain properly." 'Increase the risks' Between 2022 and 2024, 3,090 farmers took their own lives in Marathwada, an average of nearly three a day, according to India's Minister of Agriculture Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Government statistics do not specify what drove the farmers to kill themselves, but analysts point to several likely factors. "Farmer suicides in India are a consequence of the crisis of incomes, investment and productivity that you have in agriculture," said R. Ramakumar, professor of development studies at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences. Farming across many Indian smallholdings is done largely as it has been for centuries, and is highly dependent on the right weather at the correct time. "What climate change and its vulnerabilities and variabilities have done is to increase the risks in farming," Ramakumar said. This "is leading to crop failures, uncertainties... which is further weakening the economics of cultivation for small and marginal farmers." The government could support farmers with better insurance schemes to cope with extreme weather events, as well as investments in agricultural research, Ramakumar said. "Agriculture should not be a gamble with the monsoon." 'Make ends meet' Faced with uncertain weather, farmers often look to stem falling yields by investing in fertilisers or irrigation systems. But banks can be reluctant to offer credit to such uncertain borrowers. Some turn to loan sharks offering quick cash at exorbitant interest rates, and risking catastrophe if crops fail. "It is difficult to make ends meet with just farming," Mirabai said, standing outside her home, a tin-roofed hut with patch-cloth walls. Her husband's loans soared to over US$8,000, a huge sum in India, where the average monthly income of a farming household is around $120. Mirabai works on other farms as a labourer but could not pay back the debt. "The loan instalments piled up," she said, adding that she wants her children to find jobs outside of farming when they grow up. "Nothing comes out of the farm." The agricultural industry has been in a persistent crisis for decades. And while Maharashtra has some of the highest suicide rates, the problem is nationwide. Thirty people in the farming sector killed themselves every day in 2022, according to national crime records bureau statistics. At another farm in Marathwada, 32-year-old farmer Shaikh Imran took over the running of the family smallholding last year after his brother took his own life. He is already more than $1,100 in debt after borrowing to plant soybean. The crop failed. Meanwhile, the pop of explosives echoes around as farmers blast wells, hoping to hit water. "There's no water to drink," said family matriarch Khatijabi. "Where shall we get water to irrigate the farm?" - AFP More Like This

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store