Canary trap

Express Tribune

14-03-2025

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Two notes before we start.
One: The term canary trap is borrowed from fiction. It was coined by Tom Clancy in his novel Patriot Games. The counterintelligence method it refers to is actually called a barium meal test and has been in practice for a long time. It is a simple premise, albeit effective. Here, we use the former for its dramatic effect.
Two: This piece is written against the backdrop of the hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan which, despite a heroic rescue at the end, has exposed some of our worst demons as a nation once again. These demons have been exposed so many times in the past that some of us have become desensitised. But let us face it - given that these challenges now pose an existential threat, we can ignore them only at the cost of our survival. With these concerns in mind, let us begin.
We should have known something was awry a long time ago. Perhaps when a classified report on the fall of East Pakistan was carried by an Indian newspaper. Or when the country plunged headlong into the Kargil crisis without forethought regarding the strategic consequences — it drove India and America into each other's arms, after all — and instead of raising national security flags, it was skilfully turned into a political crisis.
Or perhaps when the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight 814, apart from bringing unwanted global attention, also led to the release of three men from an Indian prison who would go on to deal a nearly deadly blow to the Kashmir cause and this country's national interest. Or even in the shady circumstances in which the lawyers' movement began and fizzled out, and how readily many of us allowed our minds to be hacked by it.
How do you know when a system is hacked? When you are locked out of it and cannot effect any meaningful change without crashing the whole thing. This helplessness or lack of agency also manifests itself in video games. In video games, such sequences are called cutscenes, where gameplay is interrupted by a sequence that momentarily takes control away from the gamer.
You might have scaled a mountain, but now you have to fall, face the consequences, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. But for our current purpose, hacking is a better analogy, while cutscenes merely describe the sense of helplessness a player faces in such situations.
How do you know when you are hacked? Unless, of course, you are programmed not to notice it. Obviously, when you are locked out of the system and have no means to reaccess it.
It is then that you realise that a mind more organised and resourceful than yours - perhaps a hive mind - has overtaken the system. Now, use this analogy to examine our recent history and think: how many cutscenes have you encountered? Too many, I would say. If you are interested, a separate piece can be arranged to list all such events. Right now, we will only work with the ones that play a direct role in our narrative.
While one would follow the aforementioned developments and wonder, it was the 2014 sit-in that captured this scribe's attention. Those were prickly times. Peacenik Manmohan Singh was voted out of power in India, and hawkish Narendra Modi assumed power in May 2014. After a decade in power, Hamid Karzai was on his way out. His ascent to power had come in dramatic fashion when a more established leader, Commander Abdul Haq of Hizb-e-Islami, was hanged by the Taliban during an attempt to incite a popular uprising, while an obscure graduate of Himachal Pradesh University managed to survive while pulling off a similar feat.
During his tenure, Karzai had tried to sidestep Pakistan as a land route to India by working with Tehran to develop a road link between Kabul and Chabahar port. The only problem was that Iran was under sanctions, and Pakistan was already aggressively hawking the strategic location of Gwadar. While the Iran nuclear deal was being negotiated, the prospect of a China-Pakistan economic corridor using Gwadar as the focal point could have seriously compromised the strategic advantage of the Kabul-Chabahar route. At that time, cutscenes played out in Pakistan.
A temperamental leading journalist who had recently used aggressive language against Gen Musharraf was shot and injured in Karachi. His brother soon appeared on the leading news channel and blamed the serving DG ISI. Then came the cutscene of Model Town. And finally, we got a prolonged sit-in that delayed the Chinese president's visit and the announcement of CPEC.
Meanwhile, in one televised speech, Tahir Qadri — a leading light of the sit-in movement — flashed a picture on the screen, claiming that he had received it before it was released to the press. It was an image of Narendra Modi and President Xi sitting in the former's ancestral home in Gujarat. Qadri then proceeded to praise him as an example of a great leader.
The fact that this did not set off alarm bells was too much for me. It was then that I started asking friends in the business who were not too attached to either side to carry out sniff tests. Given that privileged state information soon started leaking like a faucet, this exercise morphed into barium meal tests. Elsewhere, I asked OSINT experts to keep a notebook and a pen and take meticulous notes of everything shady. They soon turned up with mountains of data. Thus began a decade-long quest for truth.
The 2014 crisis was averted because Gen Raheel Sharif was very popular with the masses. Before General Bajwa took office, however, a campaign had already begun to defame him. That seriously impacted his ability to control elements. Whether he could not control them or gave in to appear in control is a discussion for another day. But then came six long years, during which paradox after paradox emerged, seriously trapping Pakistan in gridlocked crises.
All this discussion is meant to show you that we need a dispassionate audit — at the very least — of the past decade. As a private citizen, I have enough data to believe that we have been hacked.
The next question is: by whom?
Good question. Very good question.
Who has the wherewithal and the intent? CIA, MI6 or RAW? The first two have the wherewithal, but here is the problem - they have also been hacked, with the help of Netanyahu's Islamophobia.
This only leaves India.
I know it is hard to believe. But this is the consensus of the experts I have worked with. This also explains why every terrorist that strikes in this country is better informed than any of us.
There is a better proof of this pudding available — an across-the-board and dispassionate counterintelligence sweep, coupled with merciless accountability of everyone involved.
Without this, whatever you gain today will be thrown away by your successors tomorrow.
The enemy's hive mind will see to it.