Social Studies: Erroneous estimates; what atheists think of other people's belief; an aggressiveness gap in women's basketball
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Intuitive belief
It appears that even atheists generally think that belief in God is good. Researchers surveyed thousands of people from eight largely secular countries (Canada, China, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the UK, and Vietnam) and described for them a scenario in which an influential decision-maker either increased or decreased other people's belief in God as a side effect of trying to make money. The participants were then asked if they thought the decision-maker had intended to affect people's belief in God. Participants were more likely to believe the decision was intentional when the effect was to decrease belief in God. Because previous studies have found that people are more likely to ascribe intentionality to outcomes they see as bad, the researchers say the subjects of this study were revealing an intuitively positive attitude about belief in God. The pattern could be detected even in staunch atheists.
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Gervais, W. et al., 'Belief in Belief: Even Atheists in Secular Countries Show Intuitive Preferences Favoring Religious Belief,' Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (April 2025).
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Taking the 3
Analyzing play-by-play data from NCAA Division I women's basketball, a study found that teams with male coaches attempted significantly more 3-pointers — ostensibly an indicator of risk-taking — even controlling for the score and time remaining in the game and the coach's age and years with the team. This disparity is consequential because 3-point attempts, especially when they're made early in the game, increase the chance of winning. One caveat: The study did not cover the most recent seasons, in which the frequency of 3-pointers may have increased, given their prominence in the NBA and the prominence of sharpshooting women like Caitlin Clark. Indeed, teams may have already become aware of findings like the one in this study.
Böheim, R. et al., 'Male Coaches Increase the Risk-Taking of Female Teams — Evidence From the NCAA,' Labour Economics (June 2025).
Power sees threat
In surveys in both China and the United States, a political scientist found that taking the perspective of a leader of a powerful country induced people to perceive a neighboring country as more threatening and to support preemptive strikes. Also, Americans who were told that US power had increased recently were more likely to perceive security threats. A similar relationship was found in a 2020 survey of Russian elites: Those who felt that Russian power was on the rise were more likely to perceive the United States, Ukraine, and NATO as threatening. This was also seen in an analysis of Cold War-era documents published by the Department of State's Office of the Historian. Those who perceived US power in the strongest light were likelier to perceive threats from the Soviet Union, China, and the Vietcong.
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Pomeroy, C., 'The Damocles Delusion: The Sense of Power Inflates Threat Perception in World Politics,' International Organization (Winter 2025).
Ready leader one
New research from the Harvard Kennedy School finds that good human leaders are also likely to be good at directing the activities of AI chatbots, suggesting a fast and cheap way to identify good leaders. The researchers assigned individual people to be the leader of three human followers or three AI 'followers' to whom the human leader could direct questions relating to a puzzle. The human test subject then had to synthesize the followers' responses into a final answer about the puzzle. Performance in the two categories was highly correlated, because intelligence and conversational skills were important regardless of whether the person was interacting with other humans or chatbots.
Weidmann, B. et al., 'Measuring Human Leadership Skills With AI Agents,' National Bureau of Economic Research (April 2025).
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